Game Time: 7:00 PM  ET, Thursday, March 10th, 2022

Venue: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Missouri

Where to Watch:  ESPN

 

DraftKings Sportsbook:  Baylor -8.5; O/U 135.5

Caesars:  Spread:  Baylor -8.5; O/U 135.5

VegasInsider:  Spread:  Baylor -8 o/u 135

FanDuel: Spread: NL

 

Oklahoma Sooners: 7-11 conf, 17-14 overall (Big 12)

Baylor Bears: 14-4 conf, 26-5 overall (Big 12)

A Big 12 tournament game that will knock Oklahoma out of the Big 12 tournament.  The only question bettors should have is “What’s the spread?”.  These teams aren’t even close to equal.  Baylor is the current Champ of the NCAA… and while Baylor’s squad is not as good as last season’s squad… It is still an elite program with elite players.  Oklahoma is “trees are made of wood”... well, not really.  They just aren’t good in the Big 12 whether they have one or two elite players or not.  The rest of college basketball doesn’t sit up nights worrying about their Sooner matchup on the schedule. So the spread is really a big deal.  There seems to be Magic going on… The Sportsbooks generally agreed that the Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga WCC Championship game should have a Gonzaga -12.5 spread… even though the teams split their season series with Saint Marys winning one game by a little and Gonzaga winning the other game by 10… the spread was set at  Gonzaga -12.5.  Obviously you should bet Saint Marys!  Against a 12.5 point point spread!! The obvious choice is to look at what is going on in their previous matchups and clearly see that Gonzaga should win, but only by a point or two…. Suddenly Gonzaga wins by 13!  What?  Is it all fixed?... no.  The truth is the numbers said Gonzaga should have won all three games by 10-15 points… but as the season dragged on they fell victim to “Just win baby!”... and they didn’t press fully until everything was on the line… Will that happen here?... No.  Baylor will be happy to get a win and move on.  Why?... The numbers tell Baylor they should landslide Oklahoma into the turf and out the wash.  A win is all Baylor is seeking.  They are even already looking ahead.  So the spread is?... and the numbers say?... is all you should worry about when putting up the money. Baylor will win, but by how much?

The Oklahoma Sooners have won 4 of their last ten games.  They are on a 3-game winning streak.  They only went 4-5-1 ATS during that stretch.  They went 5 Overs and 5 Unders.  They lost to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Iowa State, the Texas Longhorns, the Kansas Jayhawks, the TCU Horned Frogs and the Oklahoma State Cowboys… so basically they lost to every rival they have.  If they do anything today it should be to hang their heads in shame.  The basic problem with Sooners basketball is they have almost no offense whatsoever… They play good defense, but they also lose.  The perfect storm that is basketball requires any team to find scoring first and defense second. You can’t be outscored with a good defense and go home with any trophies. Leading scorer Tanner Groves, a 6’10 Forward, came over from Eastern Washington University and didn’t bring much more than 12.4 ppg. In order to do it, Tanner had to dip in FG% against Big 12 defenses.  The star of the Sooners is Point Guard Jordan Goldwire… and he is not much of a star… he just has the ball a lot.  If you want anything from your point guard it should be more than 3.4 apg.  

The Baylor Bears are stone cold killers. They are on a 5-game winning streak while having won 8 of their last ten games.  They lost to the Kansas Jayhawks and the Texas Tech Red Raiders during that span.  Both teams will be forces in the NCAA tournament.  They only went 4-5-1 ATS during that spread.  And Only 5 Overs and 5 Unders.  This is not the Baylor team of last season which should be great news to Gonzaga and UCLA. Leading scorer PG Adam Flagler 13.8 ppg is not NBA bound like the last 3 great guards to come out of Baylor. The star of the team is the other PG James Akinjo… he is good for 13.3 ppg, and 5.8 apg.  He is also not NBA bound in any meaningful way. The difference maker for Baylor is 6’8 Forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua who plays exceptional defense… but is severely offensively challenged.  This Baylor team will not go as far as previous Baylor teams… they will however beat the Sooners toil the Sooners beg for mercy.

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Oklahoma is 17-14 on the season, but 14-16-1 ATS.  They have logged 17 Overs and 14 Unders.  They are 3-1 in neutral locations.

Baylor is 26-5 on the season, but 16-13-2 ATS.  They have notched 16 Overs, 14 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 3-0 in neutral locations.

The Sooners are 239th in scoring with 68.8 ppg, 322nd in rebounds with 29.1 per game, and 0.9 in AST/TO ratio.  They are 51st on defense while holding opponents to 64.9 PPG.

The Bears are 47th in scoring with 76.8, 86th in rebounds with 33.8 per game, and 55th in AST/To ratio with 1.3.  On defense they rank 34th while holding opponents to 63.4 ppg.

Our prediction for Thursday, March 10th is… Bears 77 - Sooners 57

The Bears will roll the Sooners as they do in every category.  From offense to defense to shooting percentage the Bears are spelling out a destruction of the under-skilled Sooners.

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Baylor is 12-4 ATS in neutral court games the last 3 seasons.

Baylor is 17-6 ATS when playing their second game in a week the last 3 seasons.

Baylor is 42-23 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins the last 3 seasons.

Sooners: Elijah Harkless (undisclosed) Out 

Bears: F Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (knee) Out for season… will not affect this game, but will hamper them in the Tournament.

Sooners: Jordan Goldwire, jalen Hill,. Umoja Gibson, Jacob Groves, Tanner Groves

Bears: Flo Thamba, Kendall Brown, Adam Flagler, James Akinjo, Matthew Mayer