Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/26/2025

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Monday, May 26, 2025

Venue:  Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Thunder -3.5, Timberwolves +3.5; Over/Under:  218.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Thunder -3, Timberwolves +3; Over/Under:  218.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Thunder -3.5, Timberwolves +3.5; Over/Under:  218.5 points

Oklahoma City Thunder:  68-14 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Minnesota Timberwolves:  49-33 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

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Oklahoma City Thunder:  6-4 last 10

Minnesota Timberwolves:  7-3 last 10

The Thunder are entering the playoffs with a 68-14 record overall this season and they were 32-8 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Ajay Mitchell each led the team in points in that game with 14 while Jalen Williams was next on the team with 13 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Isaiah Hartenstein led the team in rebounds with 6. They were 40.7% from the field, 31.8% from 3-point range, and 89.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107.6 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 59-34-4 this season and their O/U record is 52-43-2.

The Timberwolves are entering the playoffs with a 49-33 record overall this season and they were 25-16 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Anthony Edwards led the team in points in that game with 30 while Julius Randle was next on the team with 24 points. Anthony Edwards led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Anthony Edwards led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 57.3% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 76.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.3 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 47-47-1 this season and their O/U record is 51-44.

The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Thunder and the 6th seeded Timberwolves for the Western Conference Finals of the NBA playoffs. The Thunder are leading this series 2-1 after the Timberwolves won game 3 at home. The Timberwolves made it a 2-1 series lead for the Thunder with a 143-101 win over the Thunder in the 3rd game of this series and that was a game that they really took out their frustrations in. The Timberwolves couldn't get much done on the road in the first 2 games of this series and went on to lose both of those games by double digits, but now they have given themselves some life with a big win at home. That game was never close as the Timberwolves had a 20 point lead by the end of the 1st quarter and never looked back in that game. They are not going to recreate that same game against the team that was the number 1 seed in the entire NBA this year. The Thunder are going to be looking to bounce back in this game and they are not a team that has lost many games this season, especially by over 40 points, so they are going to have a response to that terrible loss. They were a great road team during the regular season with their 32-8 road record, and they haven't been bad in the playoffs either so look for the Thunder to bounce back with a much better game here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game. 

Thunder Timberwolves Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Monday, May 26, 2025 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 119 Timberwolves 113.

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Oklahoma City Thunder: 5-10 ATS in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5. 6-11 ATS on the road off an upset loss as a favorite. 7-15 1H ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite. 7-2 OVER off a road loss against a division rival. 7-3 OVER after allowing 135 points or more.

Minnesota Timberwolves: 19-7 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less. 5-1 ATS in the 4th game of a playoff series. 50-33 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. 9-3 OVER when trailing in a playoff series. 15-8 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%).

Oklahoma City Thunder:  N. Topic (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

Minnesota Timberwolves:  None.

“Their force on that end of the floor was better than our physicality and pressure, things that we typically do well." - Mark Daigneault after his team’s loss against the Timberwolves in game 3 of this series on Saturday.

“Just ultimate pressure on the ball and shoot it as much as I can.” - Anthony Edwards after their win against the OKC Thunder in game 3 of this series on Saturday.

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Luguentz Dort

SF Jalen Williams

PF Chet Holmgren

C Isaiah Hartenstein

PG Mike Conley

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Jaden McDaniels

PF Julius Randle

C Rudy Gobert

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.4)

Reb/G: I. Hartenstein (10.7)

PPG: A. Edwards (27.6)

APG: J. Randle (4.7)

Reb/G: R. Gobert (10.9)

Coaches:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (5th season)

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (5th season)