Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 01/17/2026

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, January 17, 2026

Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  FDSOK, KWTV, FDSSU, WPLG

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Thunder -8.5, Heat +8.5; Over/Under:  234.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Thunder -8.5, Heat +8.5; Over/Under:  234.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Thunder -8.5, Heat +8.5; Over/Under:  234.5 points

Oklahoma City Thunder:  35-7 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Miami Heat:  21-20 (2nd place, Southeast Division)

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Oklahoma City Thunder:  8-2 last 10

Miami Heat:  5-5 last 10

The Thunder are entering this game with a 35-7 record overall this season and they are 15-4 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 5 game winning streak with wins coming against the Utah Jazz, the Memphis Grizzlies, the Miami Heat, the San Antonio Spurs, and the Houston Rockets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 20 while Chet Holmgren was next on the team with 18 points. Jalen Williams led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Chet Holmgren led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 46.1% from the field, 39% from 3-point range, and 86.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 121.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107.7 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 21-21 this season and their O/U record is 20-22.

The Heat are entering this game with a 21-20 record overall this season and they are 14-7 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Boston Celtics. Norman Powell led the team in points in that game with 26 while Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro each were next on the team with 22 points. Kasparas Jakučionis led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Andrew Wiggins led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 44.8% from the field, 35.7% from 3-point range, and 77.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 119.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 117.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 23-18 this season and their O/U record is 19-22.

The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Thunder have looked great in their games this season with their 35-7 record overall which has them right at the top of the West with the best record in the entire NBA. They have been a great road team too with their 15-4 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Heat have looked good in their games this season with their 21-20 record overall which has them right in the middle of the East. They have looked a lot better on their home court though with their 14-7 home record this year. As good as they have looked at home this season, they are off a loss to the Celtics in their last one and now they have the defending champions coming into town. The Heat have been a really up and down team all season too and they haven't been at their best lately either, going 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Thunder have been a wagon all year, even going back to last season, and they did have a rough stretch after losing in the NBA Cup, but they are back to their winning ways again and have been rolling lately. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have a ton of momentum on their side now with 5 wins in a row. They picked up a big win over the Spurs a few nights ago, and now they are off a 20 point road win in Houston, so this Thunder team is back to rolling and the Heat aren't going to be the team that stands in their way. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game. 

Thunder Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Saturday, January 17, 2026 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Thunder 124 Heat 98.

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Oklahoma City Thunder: 46-29 ATS in non-conference games. 49-28 ATS off a road win. 13-5 ATS off a road blowout win by 20 points or more. 14-4 UNDER off a road blowout win by 20 points or more. 34-26 UNDER after allowing 100 points or less.

Miami Heat: 10-15 ATS against Northwest division opponents. 21-32 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent. 18-26 ATS at home versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game. 7-1 UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 

Oklahoma City Thunder:  I. Hartenstein (C) Day To Day - Calf. N. Topic (PG) Out - Groin. T. Sorber (C) Out For Season - Knee.

Miami Heat:  J. Jaquez Jr. (SF) Day To Day - Knee. D. Mitchell (PG) Day To Day - Shoulder.

"Chet is most definitely an All-Star. From the moment he stepped foot on the court with the basketball team, we've been number one in the West. That's no coincidence." - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Chet Holmgren this season. 

“We’re better than what our record says, but until we all commit to doing role players things, we’ll keep being middle of the pack and mediocre. Until guys get sick of that middle ground, being seventh and eighth and not really want to make the push for fourth or third in the East, we’re gonna stay right here.” - Bam Adebayo after their loss against the Celtics in their game on Thursday.

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Luguentz Dort

SF Jalen Williams

PF Chet Holmgren

C Jaylin Williams

PG Davion Mitchell

SG Tyler Herro

SF Norman Powell

PF Andrew Wiggins

C Bam Adebayo

PPG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.6)

APG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6.3)

Reb/G: Isaiah Hartenstein (10.4)

PPG: Norman Powell (23.9)

APG: Davion Mitchell (7.3)

Reb/G: Kel'el Ware (9.9)

Coaches:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (6th season)

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (18th season)