Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/05/2025

Game Time: 9:30 pm ET, Wednesday, March 5, 2025

Venue:  FedExForum, Memphis, TN

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Thunder -7.5, Grizzlies +7.5; Over/Under:  246.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Thunder -7.5, Grizzlies +7.5; Over/Under:  246.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Thunder -7.5, Grizzlies +7.5; Over/Under:  246.5 points

Oklahoma City Thunder:  50-11 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Memphis Grizzlies:  38-23 (1st place, Southwest Division)

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Oklahoma City Thunder:  8-2 last 10

Memphis Grizzlies:  3-7 last 10

The Thunder are entering this game with a 50-11 record overall this season and they are 23-7 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 4 game winning streak with wins coming against the Brooklyn Nets, the Atlanta Hawks, the San Antonio Spurs, and the Houston Rockets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 51 while Jalen Williams was next on the team with 24 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Chet Holmgren led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 49.5% from the field, 45.9% from 3-point range, and 88.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 119.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 35-23-4 this season and their O/U record is 35-25-2.

The Grizzlies are entering this game with a 38-23 record overall this season and they are 22-9 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game losing streak with losses coming against the New York Knicks, the San Antonio Spurs, and the Atlanta Hawks. Desmond Bane led the team in points in that game with 35 while Luke Kennard was next on the team with 17 points. Desmond Bane led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Desmond Bane led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 50.5% from the field, 39.4% from 3-point range, and 92% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 123.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 117 PPG against them. The Grizzlies have an ATS record of 35-25-1 this season and their O/U record is 38-23.

The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Thunder have looked great in their games this season with their 50-11 record overall which has them right at the top of the West with one of the best records in the entire NBA. They have been a great road team too with their 23-7 road record. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have looked really good in their games this season with their 38-23 record overall which has them in the top half of the West and in a playoff spot. They have been great on their home court too with their 22-9 home record, but lately they haven't looked that good. They were in 2nd place of the West for some time but now they have slipped into 4th as they have been in a slump. They are only 3-7 in their last 10 games and have no momentum on their side with 3 losses in a row now. They are coming off a bad home loss to the Hawks in their last one too, and they lost a key player in their lineup. The Thunder have not only been the best team in the West all season, but they have also been really hot coming into this one. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have a ton of momentum on their side with 4 wins in a row now. They have also been rolling teams over during this streak and they can take advantage of the Grizzlies in a slump who are now banged up too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game. 

Thunder Grizzlies Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Wednesday, March 5, 2025 (9:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 133 Grizzlies 117.

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Oklahoma City Thunder: 39-24 ATS against Southwest division opponents. 29-17 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs. 26-18 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%). 30-14 OVER after 3 or more consecutive overs. 40-24 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game.

Memphis Grizzlies: 15-30 ATS against Northwest division opponents. 6-14 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 points/game or less. 22-30 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. 17-9 OVER after playing 3 consecutive home games. 14-7 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%).

Oklahoma City Thunder:  I. Joe (SG) Day To Day - Back. A. Caruso (SG) Day To Day - Undisclosed. A. Mitchell (SG) Out - Toe. N. Topić (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

Memphis Grizzlies:  S. Aldama (PF) Day To Day - Calf. Y. Kawamura (NA) Day To Day - Hamstring. J. Morant (PG) Day To Day - Shoulder. Z. Pullin Day To Day - Knee. J. Jackson (C) Day To Day - Ankle.

"Credit Houston. I thought they played well. We had to get our energy going, and I thought we did that out of halftime. The starting group gave us a great eight-minute run there of offense and defense to give us a cushion that we were able to sustain throughout the game. It wasn't our best energy game of the season, but they turned it on in that part." - Mark Daigneault after his team’s win against the Rockets in their game on Monday.

“You lose a guy like that, obviously you lose a lot of production from him, the gravity he pulls from so many defenders when he’s on the floor.” - Luke Kennard on the injury to Jaren Jackson Jr.

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Luguentz Dort

SF Jalen Williams

PF Chet Holmgren

C Isaiah Hartenstein

PG Ja Morant

SG Desmond Bane

SF Jaylen Wells

PF Jaren Jackson Jr.

C Zach Edey

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (32.6)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.2)

Reb/G: I. Hartenstein (11.2)

PPG: J. Jackson (22.7)

APG: J. Morant (7.4)

Reb/G: Z. Edey (7.7)

Coaches:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (5th season)

Memphis Grizzlies: Taylor Jenkins (6th season)