by Rod Pearson
Friday, May 08, 2026
Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Saturday, May 9, 2026
Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Thunder -8.5, Lakers +8.5; Over/Under: 211.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Thunder -8.5, Lakers +8.5; Over/Under: 211.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Thunder -8.5, Lakers +8.5; Over/Under: 212.5 points
Season Record
Oklahoma City Thunder: 64-18 (1st place, Northwest Division)
Los Angeles Lakers: 53-29 (1st place, Pacific Division)
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Recent Form
Oklahoma City Thunder: 8-2 last 10
Los Angeles Lakers: 6-4 last 10
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers Preview and Analysis
The Thunder are entering the playoffs with a 64-18 record overall this season and they were 30-10 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 6 game winning streak with wins coming against the Phoenix Suns 4 times in a row and the Los Angeles Lakers twice in a row. Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander each led the team in points in that game with 22 while Ajay Mitchell was next on the team with 20 points. Ajay Mitchell led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein each led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 55.6% from the field, 38.9% from 3-point range, and 80.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 119 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107.9 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 43-45 this season and their O/U record is 47-41.
The Lakers are entering the playoffs with a 53-29 record overall this season and they were 28-13 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Oklahoma City Thunder twice in a row. Austin Reaves led the team in points in that game with 31 while LeBron James was next on the team with 23 points. LeBron James and Austin Reaves each led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Deandre Ayton led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 50% from the field, 37.9% from 3-point range, and 85.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 114.6 PPG against them. The Lakers have an ATS record of 50-40 this season and their O/U record is 44-46.
Thunder vs Lakers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Thunder have looked great in their games this season with their 64-18 record overall which had them right at the top of the West with the best record in the entire NBA. They have been a great road team too with their 30-10 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Lakers have looked good in their games this season with their 53-29 record overall which had them in the top half of the West. They have looked good on their home court too with their 28-13 home record this season. This is game 3 of a 7-game series between the 1 seeded Thunder and the 4 seeded Lakers in the West for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. The Thunder are entering this game with a 2-0 series lead after winning game 2 by a score of 125-107. The Thunder have been the best team in the NBA going back to last season when they won the NBA Championship, but they have continued with the best record this season. They have been rolling lately as they are 8-2 in their last 10 games and they have a ton of momentum on their side with 6 wins in a row now. They swept the Suns in the last round with most of their wins being by double digits and now they are up 2-0 in this series with 2 wins by double digits. The Lakers looked good in the 1st round even though they were missing 2 key players. They were able to get by the Rockets in that series 4-2 without Reaves and Doncic, but the Rockets weren't a strong team on the offensive end and were also missing their best scorer. Now the Lakers are facing a better offense which they don't have the talent to stop defensively and they are facing one of the best defenses in the NBA too. Reaves has been back for this series, but it hasn't been enough with Doncic still out and even if Doncic came back, they still don't have the talent to slow down the Thunder in this series. The Thunder look like the best team in the NBA once again and the Lakers in this series have looked like a team that doesn't even belong on the same court. The Thunder have all of the momentum in this series on their side now, so look for them to continue rolling in this one. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game.
Thunder Lakers Prediction: Our NBA Pick for Saturday, May 9, 2026 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 117 Lakers 105.
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NBA Betting Trends
Oklahoma City Thunder: 17-8 ATS against Pacific division opponents. 5-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5. 12-6 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. 19-12 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
Los Angeles Lakers: 2-8 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%). 0-5 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 points/game or less. 9-15 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. 13-7 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game.
Key Injuries
Oklahoma City Thunder: J. Williams (SG) Out - Hamstring. T. Sorber (C) Out For Season - Knee.
Los Angeles Lakers: J. Vanderbilt (PF) Day To Day - Finger. L. Doncic (PG) Out - Hamstring.
Notable Quotes
“He goes in there, stays in character, stays aggressive. He’s going to shoot the next shot. He makes the right plays, plays inside the team. He competes defensively, has had good defensive possessions for us. And he was huge tonight. You need that in a playoff series.” - Mark Daigneault after his team’s win against the LA Lakers in the 2nd game of this series on Thursday.
"I sarcastically said the other day, they're the most disruptive team without fouling. They have a few guys that foul on every possession, and all the good defenses do. They're hard enough to play, you've got to be able to just call them if they foul, and they do foul." - JJ Redick after his team’s loss against the OKC Thunder in game 2 of this series on Thursday.
Starting Lineups
Oklahoma City Thunder
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG Luguentz Dort
SF Cason Wallace
PF Chet Holmgren
C Isaiah Hartenstein
Los Angeles Lakers
PG Austin Reaves
SG Marcus Smart
SF Rui Hachimura
PF LeBron James
C Deandre Ayton
Statistical Leaders
Oklahoma City Thunder
PPG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1)
APG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6.6)
Reb/G: Isaiah Hartenstein (9.4)
Los Angeles Lakers
PPG: Luka Doncic (33.5)
APG: Luka Doncic (8.3)
Reb/G: Deandre Ayton (8)
Coaches:
Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (6th season)
Los Angeles Lakers: JJ Redick (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
