Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/15/2025

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Thursday, May 15, 2025

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, CO 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Thunder -4.5, Nuggets +4.5; Over/Under:  217.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Thunder -4.5, Nuggets +4.5; Over/Under:  217.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Thunder -4.5, Nuggets +4.5; Over/Under:  217.5 points

Oklahoma City Thunder:  68-14 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Denver Nuggets:  50-32 (2nd place, Northwest Division)

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Oklahoma City Thunder:  8-2 last 10

Denver Nuggets:  5-5 last 10

The Thunder are entering the playoffs with a 68-14 record overall this season and they were 32-8 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Denver Nuggets twice in a row. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 31 while Jalen Williams was next on the team with 18 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Jalen Williams led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 50% from the field, 41.4% from 3-point range, and 78.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107.6 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 56-32-4 this season and their O/U record is 48-42-2.

The Nuggets are entering the playoffs with a 50-32 record overall this season and they were 26-15 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Oklahoma City Thunder twice in a row. Nikola Jokić led the team in points in that game with 44 while Jamal Murray was next on the team with 28 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 15. They were 41.2% from the field, 28.3% from 3-point range, and 92.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 116.9 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 45-47-2 this season and their O/U record is 54-40.

The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as a 4.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 6 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Thunder and the 4th seeded Nuggets from the Western Conference for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. The Thunder are leading this series 3-2 after winning game 5 at home. The Thunder took a 3-2 series lead with a 112-105 win over the Nuggets in the 5th game of this series and that was a game they really struggled in. They could not pull ahead in the 1st half and pretty much trailed for most of the night, but they had a big 4th quarter comeback and were able to get the win. They have now won 2 games in a row in this series so the momentum is with them coming into this one, and the Nuggets have to be feeling the pressure now going back home facing elimination. The Thunder haven't been a bad road team this season either with their 32-8 road record this year, and they did split the first 2 road games in this series, the game they lost going to overtime too. The Nuggets played a long 7 game series in the last round and now they are playing another long series here against a stronger team and that is going to start weighing on them in this series. That was a big game for the Thunder to come back and win in game 5 and they have shown that they are starting to take control of this series now, learning from their mistakes early on. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game. 

Thunder Nuggets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Thursday, May 15, 2025 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 109 Nuggets 102.

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Oklahoma City Thunder: 18-26 ATS on the road versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game. 14-22 ATS on the road when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. 5-8 ATS in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5. 12-5 UNDER off a road win against a division rival. 13-7 UNDER in all playoff games.

Denver Nuggets: 8-3 ATS as a home underdog. 20-12 ATS off a home loss. 8-4 ATS at home when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%). 6-3 UNDER off a home loss against a division rival. 24-18 UNDER in all playoff games.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  N. Topic (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

Denver Nuggets:  H. Tyson (PF) Day To Day - Ankle. D. Holmes II (PF) Out For Season - Achilles.

“What the great players do is they rise in the face of those challenges and adversities. And I just thought he got more and more composed as the game went on. And despite the fact that the pressure was mounting and it got hotter in there, he got cooler and just kind of settled into it, made the right plays, let the game tell him what to do.” - Mark Daigneault after his team’s win against the Nuggets in game 5 of this series on Monday.

“This is a really disappointing loss. The guys in there should be disappointed. It’s a heavy loss and we have to bounce back quickly to win Game 6 and give ourselves a chance to come back, have a game like this, but finish it.” - Dave Adelman after his team’s loss against the OKC Thunder in game 5 of this series on Monday.

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Luguentz Dort

SF Jalen Williams

PF Chet Holmgren

C Isaiah Hartenstein

PG Jamal Murray

SG Christian Braun

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.4)

Reb/G: I. Hartenstein (10.7)

PPG: N. Jokić (29.6)

APG: N. Jokić (10.2)

Reb/G: N. Jokić (12.7)

Coaches:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (5th season)

Denver Nuggets: David Adelman (Interim)