Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/11/2025

Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Sunday, May 11, 2025

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, CO 

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Thunder -6, Nuggets +6; Over/Under:  227 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Thunder -6, Nuggets +6; Over/Under:  227.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Thunder -6.5, Nuggets +6.5; Over/Under:  227.5 points

Oklahoma City Thunder:  68-14 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Denver Nuggets:  50-32 (2nd place, Northwest Division)

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Oklahoma City Thunder:  8-2 last 10

Denver Nuggets:  6-4 last 10

The Thunder are entering the playoffs with a 68-14 record overall this season and they were 32-8 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Denver Nuggets. Jalen Williams led the team in points in that game with 32 while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren each were next on the team with 18 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Chet Holmgren led the team in rebounds with 16. They were 38.5% from the field, 25.7% from 3-point range, and 68.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107.6 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 56-30-4 this season and their O/U record is 48-40-2.

The Nuggets are entering the playoffs with a 50-32 record overall this season and they were 26-15 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Jamal Murray led the team in points in that game with 27 while Aaron Gordon was next on the team with 22 points. Jamal Murray led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 16. They were 45.9% from the field, 40% from 3-point range, and 79.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 116.9 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 43-47-2 this season and their O/U record is 54-38.

The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as a 6 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Thunder and the 4th seeded Nuggets from the Western Conference for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. The Nuggets are leading this series 2-1 after winning game 3 at home. The Nuggets took a 2-1 series lead with a 113-104 win over the Thunder in the 3rd game of this series, but they did need overtime to get that win. The Nuggets did a good job bouncing back at home after that embarrassing road loss in game 2 by over 40 points, but that was still a really tight game. The Thunder came out strong in that one and had a lead by the end of the 1st quarter, but they let that lead go throughout the rest of the game and eventually went to OT where they ran out of gas, getting outscored 11-2 in OT. The Thunder didn't look bad in that game though and now they will be looking to bounce back in this one so expect them to bring their best effort here to even up this series. They still need to flip the home advantage back in their favor and they don't want to go back home down 3-1 in the series so they are going to throw everything they have at the Nuggets in this one. The Thunder bounced back nicely in game 2 after losing a tight game which they blew a lead in and they will be able to do the same here with the talent and depth that they have. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game. 

Thunder Nuggets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, May 11, 2025 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 123 Nuggets 113.

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Oklahoma City Thunder: 155-107 ATS in all games. 39-21 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent. 57-32 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 turnovers/game or less. 28-13 OVER off an upset loss as a favorite. 

Denver Nuggets: 2-7 ATS at home when leading in a playoff series. 13-19 1H ATS as an underdog  of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 16-25 1H ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season. 5-1 OVER as a home underdog of 6 points or less.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  N. Topic (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

Denver Nuggets:  D. Holmes II (PF) Out For Season - Achilles.

“It's obviously lousy to lose. But you can take a lot away, and we want to be a team that’s improving through the series. I thought we did a lot of good things -- did a lot of good things on (Jokic). It was a really hard-fought game by both teams. It wasn’t an easy game for anybody.” - Mark Daigneault after his team’s loss against the Nuggets in game 3 of this series on Friday.

“I do believe late in games you can rely on what you've seen and felt and done.” - Dave Adelman after his team’s win against the OKC Thunder in game 3 of this series on Friday.

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Luguentz Dort

SF Jalen Williams

PF Chet Holmgren

C Isaiah Hartenstein

PG Jamal Murray

SG Christian Braun

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.4)

Reb/G: I. Hartenstein (10.7)

PPG: N. Jokić (29.6)

APG: N. Jokić (10.2)

Reb/G: N. Jokić (12.7)

Coaches:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (5th season)

Denver Nuggets: David Adelman (Interim)