Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/09/2025

Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Friday, May 9, 2025

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, CO 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Thunder -4.5, Nuggets +4.5; Over/Under:  233.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Thunder -5, Nuggets +5; Over/Under:  233.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Thunder -4.5, Nuggets +4.5; Over/Under:  233.5 points

Oklahoma City Thunder:  68-14 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Denver Nuggets:  50-32 (2nd place, Northwest Division)

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Oklahoma City Thunder:  9-1 last 10

Denver Nuggets:  6-4 last 10

The Thunder are entering the playoffs with a 68-14 record overall this season and they were 32-8 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Denver Nuggets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 34 while Jalen Williams was next on the team with 17 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Chet Holmgren led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 56.2% from the field, 44.4% from 3-point range, and 91.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107.6 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 56-29-4 this season and their O/U record is 48-39-2.

The Nuggets are entering the playoffs with a 50-32 record overall this season and they were 26-15 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Russell Westbrook led the team in points in that game with 19 while Nikola Jokić was next on the team with 17 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 37.9% from the field, 40.5% from 3-point range, and 78.1% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 116.9 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 42-47-2 this season and their O/U record is 54-37.

The current betting odds have the Nuggets listed as a 4.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 3 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Thunder and the 4th seeded Nuggets from the Western Conference for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. This series is all tied up 1-1 after the Thunder won game 2 at home. The Thunder made it a 1-1 series with a 149-106 win over the Nuggets in the 2nd game of this series. They blew a big lead to lose the 1st game of this series at home, but they bounced back in that last game and looked a lot like the team that had the best record in the NBA during the regular season. Now they are going on the road for the next 2 games and they no longer have the home advantage on their side so they are going to have more pressure on them in these 2 games. The Nuggets looked terrible in game 2 and they looked like they gave up pretty early on, but they also didn't need to win that game since they won game 1 so they had already completed the mission with those first 2 road games. The Thunder looked a lot better in game 2, but they were always going to have a response after the way they blew their big lead late in game 1. Now the Nuggets are the team that is going to be looking to bounce back with a response from that embarrassing loss and they are going to have the home crowd on their side now. The Nuggets have given the Thunder trouble all season and now that they are starting to hit their stride in the playoffs, they are going to put up a good fight in this game even if they don't win it. The best way to place a bet here is on the Nuggets to cover the spread in this game. 

Thunder Nuggets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Friday, May 9, 2025 (10:00 pm ET start time) is Nuggets 124 Thunder 121.

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Oklahoma City Thunder: 155-106 ATS in all games. 12-4 ATS off a home win against a division rival. 29-18 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more. 30-16 OVER after 3 or more consecutive overs.

Denver Nuggets: 16-24 1H ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season. 10-23 1H ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs. 5-1 OVER as a home underdog of 6 points or less. 11-4 OVER off a road loss against a division rival.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  N. Topic (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

Denver Nuggets:  D. Holmes II (PF) Out For Season - Achilles.

“We got punked, and we didn’t play well enough and they came out with the right intensity. We didn’t.” - Dave Adelman after his team’s loss against the OKC Thunder in game 2 of this series on Wednesday.

“He made them pay when they overhelped on him. He had the ball ahead of them all night, so he got his teammates shots, too. It wasn’t just a one-man show. He was super efficient. I mean, he had an unbelievable blend tonight.” - Mark Daigneault after his team’s win against the Nuggets in game 2 of this series on Wednesday.

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Luguentz Dort

SF Jalen Williams

PF Chet Holmgren

C Isaiah Hartenstein

PG Jamal Murray

SG Christian Braun

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.4)

Reb/G: I. Hartenstein (10.7)

PPG: N. Jokić (29.6)

APG: N. Jokić (10.2)

Reb/G: N. Jokić (12.7)

Coaches:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (5th season)

Denver Nuggets: David Adelman (Interim)