by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Nov 17, 2021
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Cintas Center, Cincinnati, OH
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Ohio State -1.5
BetMGM: Ohio State -1.5
Caesars: Ohio State -1.5
Season record
No. 19 Ohio State: 3-0
Xavier: 2-0
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Ohio State - Xavier preview and analysis
Recent form
Ohio State: won 89-58 vs. Bowling Green on Monday
Xavier: won 73-59 vs. Kent State on Friday
So much for the thought of the trap game for the Ohio State Buckeyes. There was no chance for the Bowling Green Falcons on Monday.
After that three-game homestand to begin the season, Ohio State will hit the road for the first time this season for a quick getaway to face the Xavier Musketeers.
Ohio State’s runaway with the 31-point victory in that contest over Bowling Green on Monday was a efficient balancing act. Five players scored in double figures, led by 13 apiece from E.J. Liddell and Meechie Johnson Jr., with the Buckeyes shooting 51.4 percent from the floor.
It turned into a dominant battle on both sides of the floor. Not only did Ohio State play an efficiently sound offensive game, but the defense clamped down with ease. BGSU shot only 39.3 percent from the floor and went 7 of 21 from 3-point range. Add in only eight free-throw attempts (with three made) and Bowling Green didn’t have anything going in this game.
Ohio State led by as much as 28 in the first half before taking a 23-point lead at the break. The Falcons only made two of their first 20 shots.
“I felt like we did a really good job pressuring the ball tonight, making them feel uncomfortable,” said Ohio State forward Justin Ahrens.
While the balanced scoring has helped a great deal, don’t be mistaken: Liddell has been the star of this group. The forward has led the Buckeyes in scoring all three games and shooting an absurd 20 of 29 from inside the 3-point line. His 22.3 PPG right now would be a menace to Big Ten opponents. Liddell made all five attempts from inside the arc.
Johnson’s 13 points was a career-high for the freshman. The Buckeyes are expecting big things from the young man as the season progresses, as well as sophomores Zed Key and Eugene Brown III. It’s a group that is capable of playing well together with the mix of youth and veteran leadership.
That’ll be key going against an Xavier team -- to tip off the Gavitt Games -- for only the fifth time ever. The Musketeers are coming in with a 2-0 start with a 3-point victory over Niagara, and a 14-point impressive win against the Kent State Golden Flashes on Friday.
Senior guard Paul Scruggs had 23 points, seven rebounds and three assists in the win over Kent State to pace an offense that needed every bucket it got. Fellow guard Colby Jones scored 19 points and grabbed eight rebounds, and the Xavier offense shot only 40.3 percent from the floor and only made six of 29 3-point attempts.
Kent State just didn’t shoot any better; the Flashes shot 35.2 percent from the floor and went 8 of 22 from deep. Despite committing fewer turnovers than Xavier, the Flashes were outrebounded 48-29 and 20-8 on the offensive glass.
Prediction
Xavier has had a lot of success against the Big Ten, winning 11 of its last 15 games against those opponents. Getting a home game against a talented Ohio State team might be what the doctor ordered. Xavier is only a 1.5-point dog at most books, but I like what Scruggs and Jones can bring to this team. Xavier will give the Buckeyes a run for their money, but Liddell pulls away at the end and they get the win. Ohio State by 6
Betting trends
Ohio State is 45-20 in its last 65 games straight up; the Buckeyes are 35-28 ATS in that stretch.
Ohio State is 17-10 ATS over the past three seasons off a home win.
Xavier is 3-10 ATS in November over the past three seasons.
Xavier is 9-17 ATS following an under in its last 26.
Projected starting lineup
Ohio State:
PG: Jamari Wheeler
SG: Malachi Branham
SF: E.J. Liddell
PF: Zed Key
C: Justin Ahrens
Xavier:
PG: Nate Johnson
SG: Paul Scruggs
SF: Colby Jones
PF: Jerome Hunter
C: Dieonte Miles
SF: Colby Jones
PF: Jerome Hunter
C: Dieonte Miles
Statistical leaders
Ohio State:
Points: E.J. Liddell -- 22.3
Rebounds: Zed Key -- 7.0
Assists: Jamari Wheeler -- 4.0
Xavier:
Points: Paul Scruggs -- 20.0
Rebounds: Jerome Hunter -- 9.0
Assists: Paul Scruggs -- 4.5
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
