Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 10/29/2022

Time: Noon ET

Venue: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA

Where to watch: FOX

DraftKings: Ohio State -15; Ohio State -625, Penn State +470

FanDuel: Ohio State -14.5; Ohio State -820, Penn State +550

BetMGM: Ohio State -15.5

Caesars: Ohio State -15.5; Ohio State -650, Penn State +460

No. 2 Ohio State: 7-0 (4-0 Big Ten)

No. 13 Penn State: 6-1 (3-1 Big Ten)

Ohio State: won 54-10 vs. Iowa

Penn State: won 45-17 vs. Minnesota

It’s been a grind to get the Ohio State Buckeyes to their one true tough test this year. Sure, the Notre Dame game in Week 1 was a big one at the time, and when it happened, maybe there was a bit of a dropoff coming for the Buckeyes. C.J. Stroud, of course, has since put those worries to bed with his Heisman Trophy-contending season, but Ohio State has since dominated every team it’s seen to this point and are sitting at 7-0 and No. 2 in the country without a truly tough test. That ends this week with a trip to Happy Valley to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions, the 13th-ranked team in the country.

How dominant has Ohio State been in this run? All you need to do is look at the last five games to give you a good barometer. The last five games in how many points the Buckeyes have scored: 77, 52, 49, 49, and 54. This offense has averaged close to 50 points per game – yes, 50 points per game – in what has been a wild year for Stroud and the offense. Meanwhile, the defense has given up just 15 points per game and 239 yards per contest. It helps when you play a conference that doesn’t know much about offense, especially a program like the Iowa Hawkeyes. Ohio State, outside of a strip sack, dominated the Hawkeyes 54-10 on Saturday. Stroud threw for 286 yards and four touchdowns, each touchdown pass going to a different receiver. But did you know Iowa has a top-10 defense? Could’ve fooled me.

"When you play a top-10 defense, it's not going to be fireworks every series," Ohio State coach Ryan Day said.

I mean, it might as well have been. Ohio State led 26-10 at halftime and scored 28 more points in the second half. If you showed this game to literally anyone, you would’ve thought this game was done from the opening snap. But again, that’s what happens when you have a top-10 defense and an offense that might be bottom-10 in the country. Don’t quote me on that. You watch enough Iowa football over the years and you’re convinced that things like that happen.

"The first half was kind of weird," Stroud said. "In the first half, we just have to execute better. It's good to get that under our belts, though. The second half of the season is very tough, and you're going to have games when you're not really clicking early on, and you got to get it going. So once we got it going, I felt like we became the dynamic offense that we know. I just felt like we had some swagger back."

Do the Nittany Lions have that kind of swagger? We’re about to find out. This is a team that met its match two weeks ago against the Michigan Wolverines, losing by 24 for its first loss of the year. Penn State bounced back in a big way, beating Minnesota 45-17 at home. The fact that this game is at home and not in Columbus is reason enough to give pause that maybe Penn State has a chance in this one. Sean Clifford threw for 295 yards and four touchdown, while Nick Singleton ran for 79 yards and two touchdowns. The Penn State defense also did what it had to do to prevent Minnesota from getting going in the passing game, holding Minnesota’s quarterback to 9 of 22 passing. Try doing that to Stroud, but it’ll be tough.

"I thought that we had a rhythm," said Clifford, who completed 23 of 31 passes for 295 yards. "I thought we played a really clean game, to be honest with you."

Ohio State is opening as 15.5-point favorites, a fair number on the road for a hostile environment. One thing that’s going to be interesting for this: It’s a noon start and not in primetime. I wonder if that plays an advantage for Ohio State, where the environment might be a little more subdued.

Nevertheless, this is going to be a tough test for Ohio State. Ultimately, the Buckeyes win and hang on, but don’t be shocked if the home crowd keeps this one close enough to have Penn State cover. Ohio State by 10

Ohio State is 85-54 ATS on the road since 1992.

Ohio State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite.

Ohio State is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 against conference opponents.

Penn State is 3-6 ATS as an underdog the last three years.

Penn State is 8-8 ATS in its last 16 home games.

Passing: C.J. Stroud – 2,023 yards, 28 TD, 4 INT

Rushing: Miyan Williams – 516 yards, 9 TD

Receiving: Emeka Egbuka – 735 yards, 7 TD

Passing: Sean Clifford – 1,445 yards, 13 TD, 3 INT

Rushing: Nick Singleton – 561 yards, 7 TD

Receiving: Parker Washington – 388 yards, 1 TD