Game Time: Noon ET, Saturday, November 27th, 2021

Venue: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan

Where to Watch:  Fox

 

 

DraftKings Sportsbook:  Spread: Ohio State -8; Over/Under: 64.5

Circa:  Spread: Ohio State -8; Over/Under: 64.5

VegasInsider:  Spread: Ohio State -8; Over/Under: 64.5

 

 

Ohio State: 8-0 conf, 10-1 overall (Big Ten)

Michigan: 7-1 conf, 10-1 overall (Big Ten)

It’s here… a matchup of opponents destined to break hearts of gamblers and mere mortals.  They are both 10-1.  They are both on the national stage. The home team is the underdog.  The rivalry bleeds for the reddest blood the college football playoff yearns for. You have to have money on this game!!  The Over on the total points is so very tempting (and it’s good), but you have to pick a squad and get at least a yard on this, of all the college football picks!  

 

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OSU is 10-1, but 6-4 ATS.  They have logged 6 Overs and 5 Unders.  They are a perfect 4-0 in road games.  

Michigan is 10-1, but 9-2 ATS (really look at this).  They have notched 5 Overs and 6 Unders.  They are a perfect 6-0 at home.  This is the perfect storm for betting Michigan… They are 10-1 and playing OSU at home.  An 8-point spread in favor of OSU is really an 8-point head start. 

OSU is 1st in the FBS in points per game with 47.2.  OSU is 1st in the FBS in yards per game with 559.8.  They break down as 6th in passing offense and 32nd in rushing offense.  Quality Ohio State players at every position. (you may have seen their highlights on ESPN)

Michigan is 15th in the FBS in points per game with 36.9.  Michigan is 23rd in the FBS in yards per game with 447.9.  They break down to 71st in passing yards and 15th in rushing yards.  They beat Maryland in their last game 59-18.  Ohio State is the biggest game on their schedule regardless of what the record is coming in… it helps that they are both 10-1.

OSU ranks 46th in the FBS on defense of total yards, they give up 355.6 per game.  OSU ranks 11th in defending the rush and 99th in defending the pass.  To be fair to the occasional stat… OSU often has a second unit in a game that has already been decided by halftime. OSU is 17th in defending touchdowns… opposing offenses only score 19 ppg against them.

Michigan is 7th in the FBS in defending TDs only giving up 16.3 ppg.  Michigan is 9th in total yards defense, only giving up 306.2 yards per game.  They are 8th in pass defense and 28th in run defense.

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Our prediction for Saturday, November 27th, is…  Michigan 38 - Ohio State 31

Michigan.  That’s a good pick.  You have an 8 point wiggle room and this is the game which will define Harbaugh’s time at Michigan permanently. If this was a moneyline bet in baseball I’d also go Michigan!

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OSU is 9-2 ATS as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.

OSU is 16-8 ATS against a conference opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Mich is 2-4 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Mich is 5-1 ATS in home games this season.

Mich is 6-1 ATS after playing a conference game this season.

Ohio State: QB CJ Stroud, RB TreVeyon Henderson, TE Jeremy Ruckert, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Chris Olave, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, LT Nicholas Petit-Frere, LG Thayer Mumford, OC Luke Wypler, RG Paris Johnson JR, RT Dawand Jones

Michigan: QB Cade McNamara, RB Hassan Haskins, TE Luke Schoonmaker, TE Erick All, WR Roman Wilson, WR Cornelius Johnson, WR Mike Sainristil, LT Ryan Hayes, LG Trevor Keegan, OC Andrew Vastardis, RG Zak Zinter, RT Andrew Stueber 

OSU

Passing Yards: C.J. Stroud 3,468

Rushing Yards: TreVeyon Henderson 1,098

Tackles: Ronnie Hickman 83

Interceptions: Ronnie Hickman 2

Sacks: Garrett Haskell 5.5

Michigan

Passing Yards: Cade McNamara 2,142

Rushing Yards: Hassan Haskins 1,063

Tackles: Josh Ross 80

Interceptions: Daxton Hill 2

Sacks: David Ojabo 10

Ohio State: Ryan Day.  Coach Day took over Ohio State in 2019.  He has a head coaching career record of 33-3.  His bowl games have only gone 1-2, but his career mark is great.  He earns $7.6 million per season. He has 2 Big Ten championships and 3 Big Ten East titles.  Will he win the  National Championship?  That’s the plan.  BTW, I would sign the extension now and lock in that money.  Don’t worry about the Bears job, just keep winning and cashing.

Michigan: Jim Harbaugh.  Coach Harbaugh has coached all over (he also played all over in the NFL), pro.. College… whatever.  He took the Michigan job in 2015.  He has a Michigan record of 59-23, a bowl record of 1-4.  He has been making Ryan Day money (just at Michigan) for almost a decade.  This is the game that will define his entire time.  He needs this win more than anyone needs anything.  The knock on Coach Harbaugh is he hasn’t won any of the big games or big rivalries.  Going 10-3 is good for the Texas Longhorns (especially now), but not for Michigan.