by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Sep 21, 2022
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: PK
FanDuel: Notre Dame -1
BetMGM: Notre Dame -1
Caesars: Notre Dame -1
Season record
Notre Dame: 1-2
North Carolina: 3-0
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Notre Dame - North Carolina preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Notre Dame: won 24-17 vs. Cal
North Carolina: won 35-28 at Georgia State
Talk about a crapshoot game in Chapel Hill this weekend. If you fully believe that the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are going to find a way to come back and make this season somewhat memorable, take the Irish. If you think the North Carolina Tar Heels are actually for real based on their 3-0 start where they’ve averaged 51 points per game, go for it.
Talk about a crapshoot game in Chapel Hill this weekend. If you fully believe that the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are going to find a way to come back and make this season somewhat memorable, take the Irish. If you think the North Carolina Tar Heels are actually for real based on their 3-0 start where they’ve averaged 51 points per game, go for it.
Either way, whomever you play in this game is not going to present the easiest of choices for you. Notre Dame is opening at 1-point favorites and that line hasn’t moved much since being placed on the books. Some books are even taking favorite lines on both Notre Dame and North Carolina. It’s hard to predict this one right now.
I don’t trust Notre Dame whatsoever, and neither should you. If that Cal game on Saturday is any inkling that you can take the Irish in any game right now, you might need to re-evaluate things. If not for the two penalties and a dropped Hail Mary, who knows if Marcus Freeman would actually get his first win as Notre Dame coach? I wouldn’t have held my breath.
"Found a way to finish," Freeman said. "I'm proud of those guys. You know what, it is hard to win football games. It's hard. You've seen it in the first three games. It's hard."
That’s ultimately what matters with the Irish, who are off to an 0-2 start after losing to Ohio State in Columbus, followed by an upset loss to Marshall at home. This will be Notre Dame’s first road game since the first week of the year. Expectations were much higher, but clearly there’s a task to be done and this team has no shortage of flair for the dramatic.
"They almost gave me a heart attack out there, man," Notre Dame running back Chris Tyree said. "It's really exciting football to watch, especially when it goes down to the wire like that. That's going to be a moment we'll never forget."
Notre Dame quarterback Drew Pyne was a pedestrian 17 of 23 for 150 yards and two touchdowns, though he outplayed Cal quarterback Jack Plummer. The Irish got a solid performance on the ground from Tyree (64 yards on 17 carries) and Audric Estime, who had 76 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries.
Notre Dame’s defense has looked strong to this point, but there’s something to be said about the offense not looking as explosive as anticipated. And if it comes down to a shootout at home against the Tar Heels, that’s going to be something Notre Dame might not be able to overcome.
But given how North Carolina has struggled to keep teams off the field, the door might be open for Notre Dame to pull back at .500. The Tar Heels are coming off a 35-28 win at Georgia State in which UNC jumped out to a 21-3 lead before Georgia State stormed back to take a 28-21 lead in the third quarter.
Drake Maye was 19 of 24 for 284 yards and two touchdowns, and Omarion Hampton had 110 yards and two touchdowns on just 16 carries. But it was UNC’s defense that couldn’t contain Georgia State QB Darren Grainger (261 total yards, three touchdowns) and Georgia State’s running game as a whole (235 yards on 54 carries).
"I'm happy to have two wins on the road," coach Mack Brown said. "Both of them tough wins, which really helps us grow up."
North Carolina hasn’t beaten many top opponents right now, but they’ve been able to score now that Sam Howell is in the NFL. That’s been the most important part of Brown’s offense this season.
Prediction
Notre Dame is 7-2 in its last nine road games against the spread and are 8-1 straight up. Defense speaking, Notre Dame should win this game. But if it turns into a shootout, expect the Tar Heels to make a game out of this one, which I think they will. North Carolina by 6
Betting trends
Notre Dame is 10-3 ATS after an under in its last three seasons.
Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS against its last five ACC opponents.
North Carolina is 15-38 ATS since 1992 after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games.
North Carolina is 28-24 ATS as a home underdog since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Notre Dame:
Passing: Tyler Buchner -- 378 yards, 2 INT
Rushing: Audric Estime -- 130 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Lorenzo Styles -- 152 yards
North Carolina:
Passing: Drake Maye -- 930 yards, 11 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Omarion Hamtpon -- 228 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Kobe Paysour -- 172 yards, 2 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
