by Rod Pearson
Monday, Sep 28, 2026
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 3, 2026
Venue: Kenan Memorial Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: ND -21, UNC +21; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: ND -21, UNC +21; Over/Under: 47.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: ND -21, UNC +21; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 4-0 (0-0) (FBS Independent)
North Carolina Tar Heels: 2-1 (0-1) (12th place, ACC)
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Recent Form
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: won their last game on the road against the Purdue Boilermakers 49-10.
North Carolina Tar Heels: lost their last game on the road against the Clemson Tigers 28-20.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels Preview and Analysis
Notre Dame is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Purdue 49-10. CJ Carr was the starting QB and he completed 14/22 passes for 237 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Aneyas Williams led the team in rushing yards with 80 and 1 TD. Micah Gilbert led the receivers with 83 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Adon Shuler led the defense in that game with 7 tackles while Bryce Young led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
North Carolina is entering this game with a 2-1 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Clemson 28-20. Billy Edwards Jr. was the starting QB and he completed 13/30 passes for 135 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Benjamin Hall led the team in rushing yards with 130. Jordan Shipp led the receivers with 68 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Derek McDonald led the defense in that game with 9 tackles while Xavier Lewis led the defense in sacks with 2. Gregory Smith III came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina Prediction
The current betting odds have Notre Dame listed as a 21 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Notre Dame has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall which has them ranked like one of the best teams in the nation. They have been a good road team too with their 1-0 road record this year. Meanwhile, North Carolina has looked good in their games this season with their 2-1 record overall, but their 0-1 conference record has them right near the bottom of the ACC. They have looked better on their home field with their 1-0 home record this season. UNC had a solid start to the season under Belichick and they look like they have improved quite a bit. The defense has looked great in their games and hasn't been giving up many points at all, but the offense has looked terrible and has had trouble getting things going in their games. They are coming off a 28-20 loss to Clemson in their last one and they led for a majority of that game, but the defense wasn't able to hang on late, getting no help from the offense either. They are coming off their bye week so they have had an extra week to prepare, but that won't matter for them against one of the best teams in the nation. Notre Dame had a slow start to the season with a bad 1st half against Wisconsin, but they have been rolling since that bad half, getting better in each game. All 4 of their wins this season have been by double digits and they are coming off a 49-10 win over Purdue in their 1st true road game. UNC might have the talent on defense to slow down this Notre Dame offense at times, but they won't be able to do it all game and they don't have the talent on offense to make a comeback when Notre Dame starts to pull away. The best way to place a bet here is on Notre Dame to cover the spread in this game.
Notre Dame North Carolina Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Notre Dame 45 North Carolina 10.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 20-10 ATS in all lined games. 8-3 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49. 6-3 ATS against ACC opponents. 11-5 ATS after a win by 17 or more points. 21-13 UNDER on the road vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. 28-19 UNDER on the road against ACC opponents.
North Carolina Tar Heels: 8-17 ATS in all lined games. 2-11 ATS in home lined games. 3-7 ATS in non-conference games. 3-6 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 6-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record. 8-3 UNDER in non-conference games.
Key Injuries
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Q. Porter (WR) Out - Knee. B. Hebert (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed.
North Carolina Tar Heels: J. Washington (TE) Out - Undisclosed. M. Abou Jaoude (DL) Out - Undisclosed. R. Verhoff (K) Out - Undisclosed. K. Chapman (WR) Out - Undisclosed. C. Sadler (WR) Out - Undisclosed. C. Warren (WR) Out - Undisclosed. J. Warren (TE) Out - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“It's a huge win to beat a Big Ten team and to go on the road and do it, it's really good to win the game.” - CJ Carr after their win against Purdue in their last game.
“They made a few more plays than us in the last eight minutes of the game. We missed some opportunities on offense and some tackles on defense.” - Bill Belichick after his team’s loss against Clemson in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
WR Faison, Jordan
WR Gilbert, Micah
WR Graham, Mylan
TE Flanagan, Cooper
QB Carr, CJ
RB Williams, Aneyas
North Carolina Tar Heels
WR Humphrey, Mason
WR Shipp, Jordan
WR Kekahuna, Trech
TE Thurman, Jelani
QB Edwards Jr., Billy
RB Hall, Benjamin
Statistical Leaders
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Passing: CJ Carr (963)
Rushing: Aneyas Williams (224)
Receiving: Micah Gilbert (334)
Touchdowns: Nolan James Jr. (5)
North Carolina Tar Heels
Passing: Billy Edwards Jr. (611)
Rushing: Benjamin Hall (215)
Receiving: Jelani Thurman (183)
Touchdowns: Demon June (4)
Coaches:
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Marcus Freeman (6th season)
North Carolina Tar Heels: Bill Belichick (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
