Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/21/2026

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Venue:  Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  ND +12.5, UNC -12.5; Over/Under:  146.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  ND +12.5, UNC -12.5; Over/Under:  146.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  ND +12.5, UNC -12.5; Over/Under:  146.5 points

Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  10-8 (1-4) (15th place, ACC)

North Carolina Tar Heels:  14-4 (2-3) (11th place, ACC)

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  1-4  last 5

North Carolina Tar Heels:  2-3  last 5

Notre Dame is entering this game with a 10-8 record overall, a 1-4 record in conference games, and they are 2-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Virginia Tech Hokies in their last game. Brady Koehler led the team in points in that game with 17 while Cole Certa was next on the team with 14. Sir Mohammed led the team in assists with 3 in that game while Sir Mohammed led the team in rebounds with 5. They were 44.3% from the field, 25% from 3-point range, and 76.2% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 73.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.3 PPG against them. Notre Dame has an ATS record of 10-8 this season and their O/U record is 11-7.

North Carolina is entering this game with a 14-4 record overall, a 2-3 conference record, and they are 11-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the California Golden Bears in their last game. Caleb Wilson led the team in points in that game with 17 while Henri Veesaar and Derek Dixon each were next on the team with 14. Caleb Wilson and Seth Trimble each led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Henri Veesaar led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 46.4% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 60.7% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 81.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.6 PPG against them. North Carolina has an ATS record of 9-9 this season and their O/U record is 7-11.

The current betting odds have North Carolina listed as a 12.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. North Carolina has looked great in their games this season with their 14-4 record overall, but their 2-3 conference record has them in the bottom half of the ACC. They have looked great on their home court though with their 11-0 home record this year. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has looked good in their games this season with their 10-8 record overall, but their 1-4 conference record has them right near the bottom of the ACC. They haven't been a great road team either with their 2-3 road record this season. Notre Dame has been one of the worst teams in the ACC over the last few years and they haven't done much to improve this season either. They are 1-4 in their last 5 games, struggling a lot against conference opponents, and they are off another big loss to Virginia Tech in their last one. They have been getting blown out by a lot of opponents in their games lately and they aren't really a team with a lot of talent to begin with. North Carolina has a lot more talent at their disposal though, and they need to get moving with their slow start to conference play. They looked great in the preseason, but they have struggled more against ACC opponents now. They haven't looked good lately as they are 2-3 in their last 5 games and they are off a loss to California in their last one, but they will be looking to bounce back now that they are back at home. UNC still has the talent to compete with the best in the ACC, and they are in desperate need of a bounce back game. This is a great situation for them at home against one of the worst teams in the ACC as they will use this as a get right game. The best way to place a bet here is on North Carolina to cover the spread in this game. 

Notre Dame North Carolina Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Wednesday, January 21, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is North Carolina 91 Notre Dame 66.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 14-24 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5. 0-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 7-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5. 18-12 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).

North Carolina Tar Heels: 23-16 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points. 6-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games. 10-4 ATS versus poor passing teams, averaging 12 assists/game or less. 4-1 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  K. Njie (F) Out - Knee. M. Burton (G) Out - Ankle. T. Ahneman (C) Questionable - Knee.

North Carolina Tar Heels:  I. Matlekovic (C) Questionable - Undisclosed.

“Virginia Tech has had a great year with some tough losses and just keep fighting and bouncing back. That’s a testament to Coach Young. He’s a good coach and one of the best men in the league. Someone I’ve admired a really long time. They are really hard to deal with, especially when we are injured and playing smaller.” - Micah Shrewsberry after his team’s loss against VA Tech in their last game. 

“One of the things that I consistently said to the team is there's no time to be able to take a deep breath. Something's coming whether it's a down screen, flare, stagger, duck in.Our readiness to be able to guard their actions wasn't there at the beginning of the game and in large part for the first period. Everything that they did we were prepared for and we knew what was coming.” - Hubert Davis after his team’s loss against Cal in their last game. 

M. Burton 

J. Haralson 

B. Shrewsberry 

G. Sundra 

C. Towt

L. Bogavac 

K. Evans 

J. Stevenson 

H. Veesaar 

C. Wilson

PPG: Markus Burton (18.5)

APG: Markus Burton (3.7)

Reb/G: Carson Towt (9.9)

PPG: Caleb Wilson (19.7)

APG: Seth Trimble (3.3)

Reb/G: Caleb Wilson (10.6)

Coaches:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Micah Shrewsberry (3rd season)

North Carolina Tar Heels: Hubert Davis (5th season)