Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/30/2023

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 30, 2023

Venue:  Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Notre Dame -5.5, Duke +5.5; Over/Under:  52 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Notre Dame -5.5, Duke +5.5; Over/Under:  52 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Notre Dame -5.5, Duke +5.5; Over/Under:  52.5 points

Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  4-1 (0-0) (1st place, FBS Independents)

Duke Blue Devils:  4-0 (1-0) (4th place, ACC)

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  lost their last game at home against the Ohio State Buckeyes 17-14.

Duke Blue Devils:  won their last game on the road against the UConn Huskies 41-7.

Notre Dame is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Ohio State 17-14. Sam Hartman was the starting QB and he completed 17/25 passes for 175 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Audric Estime led the team in rushing yards with 70. Mitchell Evans led the receivers with 75 receiving yards on 7 receptions. JD Bertrand led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Jordan Botelho led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

Duke is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against UConn 41-7. Riley Leonard was the starting QB and he completed 23/34 passes for 248 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Riley Leonard led the team in rushing yards with 30 and 1 TD. Jordan Moore led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Nick Morris Jr. led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Aeneas Peebles led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have Notre Dame listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Notre Dame is coming off a loss at home to Ohio State in their last game but they were the better team in that game, they just found a way to lose it at the end. Notre Dame still has a really good offense that is going to be looking to put up points in this game after that dud at home last week and their defense is also really good as they held Ohio State to just 17 points in that loss. Duke has been really good in their games this year with their 4-0 record overall and they do have a really good win over Clemson, but that win also came at home and at the beginning of the season in their 1st game. They caught Clemson at a bad time starting the season but other than that, they really haven't played anyone tough. Duke does have a good offense but they are going to have a really tough time scoring on this very good Notre Dame defense while Notre Dame is still going to be upset from that loss and will be looking to take it out on this lesser Duke team. The best way to place a bet here is on Notre Dame to cover the spread in this game. 

Notre Dame Duke Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 30, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Notre Dame 35 Duke 21.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 6-13 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers. 7-2 OVER in road games. 8-2 OVER against ACC opponents. 13-7 OVER after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. 10-4 OVER after playing a game at home.

Duke Blue Devils: 12-4 ATS in home games. 8-2 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 8-2 ATS after playing a non-conference game. 26-18 OVER after a game where they committed no turnovers. 7-3 OVER after playing a non-conference game.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  E. Raridon (TE) Out indefinitely - Knee. G. Rubio (DL) Out indefinitely - Knee. C. Salerno (K) Out indefinitely - Leg. K. Bauman (TE) out for season - Knee. K. Smith (WR) Out indefinitely - Shoulder.

Duke Blue Devils:  E. Pancol (WR) Out indefinitely - Lower Body.

"We were trying to get a fourth defensive lineman in the game. I told him ‘Just stay off, we can’t afford a penalty.’ I didn’t have any timeouts left.” - Marcus Freeman after his team’s loss against OSU in their last game.

“It was great to go out there and get a job done, to get an early lead, to get out in front at halftime and then to kind of put that thing away so we could rest a lot of our players in the fourth quarter.” - Mike Elko after his team’s win against UConn in their last game. 

WR Merriweather, Tobias 

WR Thomas, Jayden 

WR Tyree, Chris 

TE Evans, Mitchell 

QB Hartman, Sam 

RB Estimé, Audric

WR Hagans, Sahmir  

WR Moore, Jordan

WR Calhoun, Jalon 

TE Dalmolin, Nicky 

QB Leonard, Riley 

RB Coleman, Jaylen

Passing: S. Hartman (1236)

Rushing: A. Estime (591)

Receiving: C. Tyree (241)

Touchdowns: A. Estime (5)

Passing: R. Leonard (778)

Rushing: J. Waters (258)

Receiving: J. Calhoun (258)

Touchdowns: J. Waters (7)

Coaches:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Marcus Freeman (3rd season)

Duke Blue Devils: Mike Elko (2nd season)