Northwestern Wildcats vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/17/2026

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 17, 2026

Venue:  Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI 

Where to Watch:  Peacock

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Northwestern -7.5, Michigan State +7.5; Over/Under:  48.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Northwestern -7.5, Michigan State +7.5; Over/Under:  48.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Northwestern -7.5, Michigan State +7.5; Over/Under:  48.5 points

Northwestern Wildcats:  4-1 (1-1) (10th place, Big Ten)

Michigan State Spartans:  2-4 (0-3) (17th place, Big Ten)

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Northwestern Wildcats:  won their last game at home against the Ball State Cardinals 45-14.

Michigan State Spartans:  lost their last game at home against the Illinois Fighting Illini 38-37 in overtime. 

Northwestern is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Ball State 45-14. Aidan Chiles was the starting QB and he completed 17/23 passes for 272 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Caleb Komolafe led the team in rushing yards with 44 and 1 TD. Griffin Wilde led the receivers with 144 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Braydon Brus led the defense in that game with 8 tackles while Jack Trautmann led the defense in sacks with 1. Robert Fitzgerald came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Michigan State is entering this game with a 2-4 record overall and they have a 0-3 record in their conference games too. They are 2-2 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Illinois 38-37 in OT. Alessio Milivojevic was the starting QB and he completed 22/26 passes for 196 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jaziun Patterson led the team in rushing yards with 93 and 3 TDs. Jayden Savoury led the receivers with 49 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Cam Stodghill led the defense in that game with 11 tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Devin Vaught came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Michigan State listed as a 7.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan State has looked terrible in their games this season with their 2-4 record overall and their 0-3 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the Big Ten. They have looked better on their home field though with their 2-2 home record this season. Meanwhile, Northwestern has looked good in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall and their 1-1 conference record which has them right in the middle of the Big Ten. They haven't been a great road team though with their 0-1 road record this year. Northwestern is coming off a 45-14 win over Ball State and that was right after a big home win against Penn State in their new stadium. They look like a team that has improved a lot this season and their only loss this year was against Indiana who hasn't lost a game in well over a year, but that was also their only real road test and Indiana hasn't really looked like the same team that won the National Championship last year. They still kept it close against a really good Indiana team, but they have played their other 4 games at home this year and this is a game that is going to have a lot of meaning to Michigan State. Michigan State has looked bad this season, but lately they have looked better and even had a chance to win their last one. They are coming off a 38-37 loss to Illinois and they came back down double digits in that one but couldn't finish the job. That was their best game of the season though and they will be looking to build on that now that Pat Fitzgerald's former team is coming into town. Look for Michigan State to bring their best effort here at home and keep this a tight game where even if Northwestern does win it, it won't be by more than a TD. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan State to cover the spread in this game. 

Northwestern Michigan State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 17, 2026 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Northwestern 24 Michigan State 20.

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Northwestern Wildcats: 12-5 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49. 6-3 ATS off a home win. 8-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. 12-4 OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest. 7-4 OVER after playing a game at home.

Michigan State Spartans: 5-12 ATS in home lined games. 3-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49. 6-12 ATS in games played on a grass field. 7-3 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more. 6-0 OVER against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.

Northwestern Wildcats:  C. Petrucci (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Farrell (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Turner (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. McDuffie (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. McGlinchey (TE) Out - Undisclosed. L. Dehnicke (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Fussell (CB) Out - Undisclosed.

Michigan State Spartans:  C. Wheatland (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Fancher (QB) Questionable - Knee. C. Edwards (RB) Questionable - Knee.

“Aidan's ability, when things break down, to extend things with his feet is a critical piece of what we're doing. You don't necessarily want that, but not everything is going to be perfect. That's really hard to defend.” - David Braun after his team’s win against Ball State in their last game. 

“We were just so beat up on defense that to go for 2 in the end was a no-brainer.” - Pat Fitzgerald after his team’s loss against Illinois in their last game. 

WR Eligon II, Hayden

WR Wilde, Griffin

WR Wagner, Drew

TE Honig, Alex

QB Chiles, Aidan

RB Komolafe, Caleb

WR Bullard Jr., Rodney

WR Moore, Fredrick

WR McCray, Chrishon

TE Parachek, Brennan

QB Milivojevic, Alessio

RB Edwards, Cam

Passing: Aidan Chiles (1,172)

Rushing: Caleb Komolafe (334)

Receiving: Griffin Wilde (425)

Touchdowns: Aidan Chiles (6)

Passing: Alessio Milivojevic (1,047)

Rushing: Cam Edwards (304)

Receiving: Rodney Bullard Jr. (242)

Touchdowns: Jaziun Patterson (6)

Coaches:

Northwestern Wildcats: David Braun (4th season)

Michigan State Spartans: Pat Fitzgerald (1st season)