Game Time: 7:00 PM ET, Tuesday, December 14th, 2021 

Venue: Pete Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge Louisiana

Where to Watch: ESPN - SEC Network 

BetMGM:  Spread: NL

Caesars: Spread:  NL

DraftKings:  Spread: NL

Opening Line:  LSU -31.5

NW State: 0-0 conf, 2-8 overall (Southland)

LSU:  0-0 conf, 9-0 overall (SEC)

Northwestern State has their work cut out for them.  At some point in recent history their athletic director booked a game against the LSU Tigers, a bigger school in a much flashier conference.  The payday was good.  The kind of $$ that keeps athletic departments afloat at schools with unheralded sports teams.  The problem with that deal is now the kids that came to play basketball for NW State must now play the superior talent at LSU.  They will be blown out.  The reason we watch games like this is to see if the dominant team can cover the massive spread that will accompany them.

This is an easy win for LSU, before conference play starts, to pad their stats. LSU is undefeated and therefore on a 9 game winning streak this season.  The Tigers are ranked #19 in the country and have already beaten Wake Forest and Georgia Tech… they have big competition headed their way in a very short time… Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee.  On Tuesday they take a break from the pressure and torture NW State into submission on the hardwood.  Can they cover the spread?

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NW State is 2-8 on the season, but 3-5 ATS (two of their games didn’t qualify for a spread with Vegas as they were against local junior colleges or D2 programs).  They have logged 5 Overs and 3 Unders.  They are 0-6 in road games.

LSU is 9-0 on the season, but 8-1 ATS (they failed to cover against Penn State, who took them to overtime).  They have notched 1 Over and 8 Unders.  They are 6-0 in home games.

NW State is 246th in college basketball in scoring with 68.9 (and that is against subpar competition), 295th in rebounds with 30.3, 165th in AST/TO ratio.  They are shooting poorly with 44.5% FG, 30.5% 3PT, and an atrocious 59.7% from the free throw line.  SMU beat them 95-48 and in the process SMU covered a -20.5 point spread…. Oklahoma beat them 77-59 and in the process failed to cover a -28 point spread.   LSU is better than SMU and Oklahoma… and maybe better than an all-star team composed of current SMU and Oklahoma players.

LSU is 63rd in points with 78.3 per game, 21st in rebounds with 38.7 per, 195th in AST/TO ratio with 1.0.  They are hot and cold shooters 94th in FG% with 46.2%, 275th in 3PT% with 30.9%, and 17th in FT% with a fantastic 79.3%.  The bees knees about the Tigers is they rank #1 in defense in the nation.  They allow only 53.7 ppg.  They haven’t played a tough schedule but that is a great defensive number to be at.

Our prediction for Tuesday, December 14th is….  LSU 90 - NW State 52

LSU could win by 38 points just based on losses NW State has already had… like a 41 pt loss to Houston.  Still what you have to watch out for in a spread that large would be whether LSU plays all scrubs in the second half and allows NW State to get the lead down to 20 points.  A win is a win for LSU and they do want to keep everyone healthy for the NCAA tournament this year.  Although it is possible that the scrubs on LSU are still head and shoulders above the starters on NW State.

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LSU is 1-0 ATS versus Northwestern State over the last 3 seasons.

That 1 game went Over the total.

That 1 game was also played at LSU, so LSU 1-0 ATS vs NW State at LSU.

NW State is 0-1 ATS against good defensive teams (allow less than 64 pts) this season.

NW State: G Emareyon McDonald, G Laterrance Reed, G Jalen King, G Cedric Garrett, F/C Stavros Polatoglou

LSU: G Brandon Murray, G Xavier Pinson, F Darius Days, F Mwani Wilkinson, C Efton Reid

NW State

Points: Kendal Coleman 15.9

Assists: Caravell Teasett

Rebounds: Kendal Coleman 7.6

Steals: Carvell Teasett 3.0

Blocks: Kendall Coleman 0.8

LSU

Points: Tari Eason 15.6

Assists: Xavier Pinson 5.0

Rebounds: Darius Days 8.0

Steals: Mwani Wilkinson 2.2

Blocks: Tari Eason 1.6

NW State: Mike McConathy.  Coach McConathy has an important job… he gathers together kids that were overlooked or ignored by other programs and puts together a team good enough to get beat by every big program the Athletic Director can get an appearance fee from.  

LSU: Will Wade.  Coach Wade won’t mention this game in any future retirement speech.  He has had the job since 2017 and a record of 91-40 so far, but at $2.5 million a year it’s time to start making the tournament and winning tournament games.