by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Oct 19, 2022
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Where to watch: TBA
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: UTSA -10
FanDuel: UTSA -10.5
BetMGM: UTSA -10
Caesars: UTSA -10
Season record
North Texas: 4-3 (3-0 C-USA)
UTSA: 5-2 (3-0 C-USA)
We're about to hit the fun part of college football season where games start getting a little tighter, performances start to become a little more noteworthy, and times at the books are fun for all. You don't believe me? Look at our own Kyle Hunter posting a 25-7-0 run over the last month in college football. That's even with all of the upsets and everything in between. Week 8 is upon us and we're near the point where college football is every day. You want to get back into the swing of things with this? Make sure to follow our Best Bets page and see what our champion handicappers are up to at bigal.com. Who knows? With a little bit of faith in us, you can be like Kyle, or even have as good a run as Sean Murphy at 32-16-1 over the last 30 days. The choices are yours!
North Texas - UTSA preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
North Texas: won 47-27 vs. Louisiana Tech
UTSA: won 30-10 at Florida International
I don’t think anyone had the North Texas Mean Green and UTSA Roadrunners sitting at the two-thirds mark of the season sitting at 3-0 in Conference-USA play. At least North Texas. UTSA has long been a constant in the conference race and are creeping back up to a top-25 spot with a few more wins. But North Texas wasn’t looking pretty a month ago after a 58-27 loss to UNLV, followed by a 44-34 loss to the Memphis Tigers. But after two wins against Florida Atlantic and Louisiana Tech, where the offense found a way to put up 45 points each, there’s some optimism to be had.
I don’t think anyone had the North Texas Mean Green and UTSA Roadrunners sitting at the two-thirds mark of the season sitting at 3-0 in Conference-USA play. At least North Texas. UTSA has long been a constant in the conference race and are creeping back up to a top-25 spot with a few more wins. But North Texas wasn’t looking pretty a month ago after a 58-27 loss to UNLV, followed by a 44-34 loss to the Memphis Tigers. But after two wins against Florida Atlantic and Louisiana Tech, where the offense found a way to put up 45 points each, there’s some optimism to be had.
But that shouldn’t mean that you should take North Texas with any lick of confidence. This is a defense that’s still giving up 35 points per game. No matter if they’re averaging more than 500 yards of offense with a split between pass and run, they’re still getting torched in the secondary by giving up almost 290 passing yards per game. For example, North Texas in its 20-point win over Louisiana Tech last week saw the Mean Green put up 671 total yards of offense and possession of the ball for just 27 minutes. Meanwhile, UNT gave up 504 total yards with 424 of them and two touchdowns coming through the air. The Mean Green ran for 475 yards and four touchdowns with two 100-yard rushers and complete and utter dominance. Sure, you’d like more production from Austin Aune, but the quarterback of this program has never been known to be a big-game type of game manager. You’re going to be fine in that situation. Trust me.
Despite all of that, North Texas hasn’t met a match like this one in UTSA. The offense is humming along at a ridiculous rate during this four-game winning streak, the latest coming off a 30-10 win over Florida International last week. It was the third straight time that the Roadrunners scored 30 points in a game. And of course, the offensive output was led by Frank Harris throwing for 303 yards and two touchdowns, while Kevorian Barnes ran for 128 yards and two touchdowns on just 20 carries. We’ve been very bullish on UTSA on this site and with good reason. Hell, we thought they could beat Texas or at least come close to getting a win there. But if you’re going to be a contender in this country, you need to be winning with defense. And right now, UTSA’s defense isn’t where it should be right now, giving up 430 yards per game and 169 on the ground. If the Roadrunners don’t shore up the defensive line and prepare for North Texas running down their throats all day, it could be a long day.
Prediction
I could see North Texas keeping this thing close with the 10 points on the spread, especially if the offense can do some good things on the ground. But I have less faith in North Texas trying to stop Harris and the passing attack than I do anything else. UTSA by 14
Betting trends
North Texas is 8-11 ATS as an underdog the last three years.
North Texas is 2-10 ATS since 1992 in dome games.
UTSA is 9-10 ATS as a favorite the last three years.
UTSA is 11-8 ATS against conference opponents the last three years.
Statistical leaders
North Texas:
Passing: Austin Aune -- 1,692 yards, 17 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Ayo Adeyi -- 557 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Roderic Burns -- 402 yards, 1 TD
UTSA:
Passing: Frank Harris -- 2,300 yards, 15 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Brenden Brady -- 405 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: De'Corian Clark -- 678 yards, 7 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
