North Texas Mean Green vs. UNLV Rebels: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 9/17/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Friday, Sep 16, 2022
Game time: 3 p.m. ET
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Where to watch: TBD

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: UNLV -2.5
FanDuel: UNLV -2.5
BetMGM: UNLV -2.5
Caesars: UNLV -2.5

Season record
North Texas: 2-1
UNLV: 1-1

Upsets galore in Week 2 of college football! We almost saw Alabama go down in Week 2, but that didn't stop the top-25 polls from shaking up a great deal. What does Week 3 bring for us? Sean Murphy had a 6-2-1 run this past Saturday and is on a 15-8 run. If you like those odds, make sure you're following Sean's best bets. Check out Sean's picks, as well as other choices from our champion handicappers in our Best Bets section.

North Texas - UNLV preview, analysis and prediction


Last week
North Texas:  won 59-27 vs. Texas Southern
UNLV: lost 20-14 at Cal

Let me tell you about the year 2014. It was a fun time in Las Vegas. There were no professional sports teams at the time. The Vegas Golden Knights didn’t exist, and the Las Vegas Aces weren’t one win from a WNBA title. Not even the San Antonio Silver Stars were that close.

In the barren wasteland of Southern Nevada, in the fall of 2014, was a crucial year for the UNLV football team. The Bobby Hauck era was bound to come to a crashing halt if the Rebels didn’t find a way to make a bowl game that year. One quarterback change, a Fremont Cannon win and seven wins later, the Rebels made the Heart of Dallas Bowl against the North Texas Mean Green.

For the first time since Jan. 1, 2015, the Rebels will get the chance to seek revenge on North Texas from that bowl game at Allegiant Stadium on Saturday. Of course, the only ones who remember North Texas slapping UNLV around 36-14 in the Cotton Bowl are those historians and us who got drunk at a bar to watch it happen at 9 a.m.

Alas, that afternoon in Dallas marks the only time North Texas has ever beaten UNLV. The teams have changed, the coaches have changed, but UNLV has remained a constant struggle unit a laughing stock in the college football world.

But call it the ghosts of 2014 talking, but I have the Rebels getting revenge in this one and improving to 2-1 on the year. It’s crazy that UNLV could’ve actually made it 3-0 had they figured out how to score in the red zone last week. The defense did well enough through three quarters to hold off Cal, but ultimately lost 20-14.

The Marcus Arroyo era might be defined by this team. It might be defined by Doug Brumfield somehow being better than a transfer from Tennessee they brought in. And if he plays the way he did against Idaho State in Week 1, the Rebels will be well on that way.

UNLV would’ve had a much better season in 2021 had they won those one-possession games. I lost count at seven, but it might have been more or less. What will really test Arroyo’s development as a coach is how they respond from losses like that to Cal. The Vegas native in me actually wants to think that will happen. Time will tell.

But the Rebels possess some serious talent on offense to make up for it. When they’re clicking, it’s a talented offense. Ricky White, a transfer from Michigan State, had eight catches for 182 yards and two touchdowns in his debut. Kyle Williams, last year’s leading receiver, has touchdowns in the first two games.

If Brumfield plays like he did in Week 1, or anything remotely close, the Rebels are going to find a way to win this game. It’s not like North Texas has been able to do anything of their own as of late with wins over UTEP and Texas Southern. They lost 48-10 against SMU on Sept. 3.

Prediction


I just want to believe. Let me believe, UNLV. The Rebels are laying 2.5 everywhere, and that’s a good number to have. If the defense can hang on for a bit, UNLV gets to 2-1 and covers. UNLV wins by 10

Betting trends


North Texas is 6-10 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog.

North Texas is 1-6 ATS following a non-conference game in its last seven.

UNLV is 28-47 ATS as a favorite since 1992.

UNLV is 5-1 ATS in its last six after allowing 100 rushing yards or less.

The under is 10-3 in the last 13 when UNLV plays on a Saturday.

Statistical leaders


North Texas:
Passing: Austin Aune -- 640 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Ayo Adeyi -- 257 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Roderic Burns -- 177 yards, 1 TD

UNLV:
Passing: Doug Brumfield -- 562 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Aidan Robbins -- 119 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Ricky White -- 241 yards, 2 TD

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this North Texas Mean Green - UNLV Rebels prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

© 2024 Al McMordie's BigAl.com. All Rights Reserved.