North Texas Mean Green vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/10/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 11, 2021
Venue:  Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Where to Watch:  ESPN+


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Mean Green +22.5, Mustangs -22.5; Over/Under:  74 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Mean Green +22, Mustangs -22; Over/Under:  73 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Mean Green +22, Mustangs -22; Over/Under:  73 points

Season Record

North Texas Mean Green:  1-0 (2nd place, C-USA West)
SMU Mustangs:  1-0 (1st place, AAC)
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North Texas Mean Green vs SMU Mustangs Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
North Texas Mean Green:  won 1
SMU Mustangs:  won 1

Offensive Analysis

Last season the North Texas Mean Green averaged a 55.1% completion percentage, 283 passing yards, and 2.8 touchdowns per game through the air. They also averaged 230.2 rushing yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game on the ground. The SMU Mustangs were averaging a 65.4% completion percentage, 318 passing yards, and 2.3 touchdowns per game through the air. They also averaged 176.5 rushing yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game on the ground.

Defensive Analysis

Last season the North Texas Mean Green were allowing teams a 62.7% completion percentage, 252.9 passing yards, and 2.5 touchdowns per game through the air. They also allowed 269.8 rushing yards and 3.2 touchdowns per game on the ground. The SMU Mustangs were allowing teams a 58.1% completion percentage, 241.9 passing yards, and 2.2 touchdowns per game through the air. They also allowed 180.3 rushing yards and 1.9 touchdowns per game on the ground.


Mean Green vs Mustangs Prediction

The North Texas Mean Green are coming into this college football game sitting in 2nd place of the C-USA West with a 1-0 record. They won their season opener against Northwestern State 44-14. Jace Ruder started in the last game at quarterback and he struggled quite a bit completing 10/21 passes for 131 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. DeAndre Torrey was the star of this game rushing for 244 yards alone scoring 3 touchdowns on 25 carries. Isaiah Johnson also had 48 rushing yards and 1 touchdown on 11 carries but it was Torrey who stole the game for them. Roderic Burns also had a fantastic game leading the team in receiving yards with 114 and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions. KD Davis really led this defense in that last game with 8 solo tackles, 6 assisted tackles, and 2 sacks. Grayson Murphy and Kameron Hill also recorded a sack each in that game while Makyle Sanders had the only interception for them in the game. 

The Southern Methodist Mustangs are coming into this matchup sitting in 1st place of the American Athletic Conference with a 1-0 record. They won their first game of the regular season against ACU 56-9. Tanner Mordecai had a great game for the SMU offense in their last one as he completed 24/30 passes for 317 yards and 7 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Their running game was not that good as Ulysses Bentley IV led the team in rushing with 48 yards on 10 carries. Danny Gray had a pretty good game leading his team in receiving yards with 72 and 2 touchdowns on 4 receptions. Grant Calcaterra and Nolan Matthews both caught 2 touchdown passes in the last game and Rashee Rice also caught 1. Shaine Hailey led the defense with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while both Richard Moore and Gary Wiley each recorded 1 sack in the game. Their passing defense was great as Bryan Massey, Isaiah Nwokobia, and Trevor Denbow all caught 1 interception each in that game as well. They will have some tough games coming up on their schedule playing against TCU, Memphis, UCF, and Cincinnati.

Both teams seem to have great offenses but SMU is much stronger. UNT played a very weak team in their first game and managed to run all over them but the passing game was lacking quite a bit. SMU has a great run game and passing game and that will be the difference in this game when teams are trying to move the ball down the field. SMU is more capable of making big plays so they will be able to cover this spread in a blowout win.

Mean Green Mustangs Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for September 11, 2021 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Mustangs 61 Mean Green 24.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

North Texas Mean Green: 2-9 ATS as an underdog. 1-6 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders. 1-5 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game. 1-7 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins.
SMU Mustangs: 7-0 ATS after playing a non-conference game. 8-3 ATS as a home favorite.

Key Injuries

North Texas Mean Green:  O. Adaway III (RB) out for season - Knee injury.
SMU Mustangs:  T. McDaniel (RB) Ques Sat - Ankle injury.

Players to Watch

North Texas Mean Green: DeAndre Torrey is one player to watch in this FBS college football game. He rushed for over 200 yards in this game and he will have to keep up that good play as they are about to face a very good SMU team. Watch for him to make explosive runs to relieve the pressure on the quarterback.
SMU Mustangs: Tanner Mordecai is one player to watch in this game as he looks to get his team a home win. He threw for over 300 yards and 7 touchdowns in their last game. He has a lot of depth to throw to so watch for him to make some big plays down the field.

Notable Quotes

 “It felt pretty good to go out there and make the routine plays that I’ve been making in practice. All the hard work I’ve been putting in during practice led to it.” - Roderic Burns about translating what he learned in practice over to a real game.
"We have to be fighting to get noticed. There is a lot going on in Dallas. People in Dallas can spend their money in a lot of ways, and we are fighting to be an option. To do that, we have to be consistently putting a good product on the field." - Sonny Dykes on their goal for this year’s football season getting the program known again.

Starting Lineups

North Texas Mean Green
WR Shorter, Jyaire 
WR Simpson, Deonte 
WR Burns, Roderic 
TE Roberts, Jake 
HB Pirtle, Jason 
QB Ruder, Jace 
RB Torrey, DeAndre 
SMU Mustangs
WR Roberson Jr., Reggie 
WR Rice, Rashee 
WR Gray, Danny 
TE Calcaterra, Grant 
QB Mordecai, Tanner 
RB Bentley IV, Ulysses 

Statistical Leaders

North Texas Mean Green
Passing: J. Ruder (131)
Rushing: D. Torrey (244)
Receiving: R. Burns (114)
Touchdowns: D. Torrey (3)
Sacks: K. Davis (2)
Tackles: K. Davis (8)
SMU Mustangs
Passing: T. Mordecai (317)
Rushing: U. Bentley IV (48)
Receiving: D. Gray (72)
Touchdowns: D. Gray (2)
Sacks: R. Moore (1)
Tackles: S. Hailey (5)
North Texas Mean Green: Seth Littrell (6th season)
SMU Mustangs: Sonny Dykes (4th season)

Weather Forecast

89 degrees F sunny, 42% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 10 mph wind speeds S.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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