North Texas Mean Green vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/27/2025

Game Time: 5:45 pm ET, Saturday, December 27, 2025

Venue:  University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  UNT -3, SDSU +3; Over/Under:  53.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  UNT -3, SDSU +3; Over/Under:  54 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  UNT -3, SDSU +3; Over/Under:  54.5 points

North Texas Mean Green:  11-2 (7-1) (2nd place, American)

San Diego State Aztecs:  9-3 (6-2) (4th place, MWC)

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North Texas Mean Green:  lost their last game on the road against the Tulane Green Wave 34-21.

San Diego State Aztecs:  lost their last game on the road against the New Mexico Lobos 23-17 in overtime. 

North Texas is entering this game with an 11-2 record overall and they have a 7-1 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 5-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Tulane 34-21. Drew Mestemaker was the starting QB and he completed 21/34 passes for 294 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Ashton Gray led the team in rushing yards with 47 and 1 TD. Miles Coleman led the receivers with 125 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Will Jones II and Patrick Smith-Young each led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

San Diego State is entering this game with a 9-3 record overall and they have a 6-2 record in their conference games too. They are 6-0 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against New Mexico 23-17 in OT. Jayden Denegal was the starting QB and he completed 14/24 passes for 162 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Lucky Sutton led the team in rushing yards with 110 and 1 TD. Donovan Brown led the receivers with 91 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Owen Chambliss led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Niles King led the defense in sacks with 2.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have San Diego State listed as a 3 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. San Diego State has looked really good in their games this season with their 9-3 record overall and their 6-2 conference record which had them right near the top of the MWC. They haven't played in any neutral site games this year so this will be their first, playing in the New Mexico Bowl. Meanwhile, North Texas has looked great in their games this season with their 11-2 record overall and their 7-1 conference record which had them right near the top of the American Conference. They haven't played in any neutral site games this season either. North Texas had a great season in the American Conference and was even ranked in the top 25 at times, looking like the best team in that conference with a great offense that was putting up a ton of points in every game this year. Their defense didn't look great though and they gave up a ton of points all season which ended up being their downfall. Their only loss in the conference during the regular season was a loss at home to South Florida which they gave up over 60 points in, but they still had a chance to go to the CFP in the end. They went to the Conference Championship and just had to beat Tulane to get into the playoffs, but they lost that game 34-21 and struggled a lot against a better defense which wasn't something that they saw a lot of this year. Now their head coach has left for another job and they have multiple players in the transfer portal, including their QB. They aren't in a great situation for this game, and they are going to be seeing another very good defense in San Diego State. San Diego State had a chance to go to the MWC Championship, but they lost their regular season finale to New Mexico in OT which put them in a 4-way tie for 1st place which kept them out of the Championship game. They had one of the best defenses in the conference though and they have a lot more to play for here with Sean Lewis trying to make a statement in his 2nd year coaching this team. The best way to place a bet here is on San Diego State to cover the spread in this game. 

North Texas San Diego State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, December 27, 2025 (5:45 pm ET start time) is SDSU 23 UNT 16.

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North Texas Mean Green: 3-6 ATS against Mountain West conference opponents. 3-8 ATS in minor bowl games (played in December). 18-25 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 8-4 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record. 7-4 UNDER off a loss against a conference rival.

San Diego State Aztecs: 21-14 ATS in all lined games. 12-4 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 8-3 ATS off a road loss. 6-3 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3. 10-2 UNDER in non-conference games. 

North Texas Mean Green:  C. Hawkins (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. McGill II (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. W. Smith (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Vaughn (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Becks (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Scott (DL) Out - Undisclosed. S. Whitter (LB) Out - Undisclosed. D. Shaw (OG) Out - Undisclosed. F. Vailea II (DL) Out - Undisclosed.

San Diego State Aztecs:  J. Denegal (QB) Out - Shoulder. J. Whitmore (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Pierce Jr. (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Emanuel Jr. (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Magee (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Letuli (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Fincher (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Cornelius (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Bostick (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Bleszynski (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Baker (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Clegg (K) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Napier (WR) Out - Knee. B. Scolari (WR) Out - Knee.

"We scored, they matched us, and then we went flat for a while. That hurt us. Good teams make you pay. There were a lot of things (against us) tonight. They were fast and aggressive and did a great job." - Eric Morris after North Texas lost to Tulane in the American Conference Championship.

“We've had a great week of preparation here. Guys have been attacking it the right way. Nine days out from a tremendous opportunity to go play, go compete. The enthusiasm to play has been awesome. Really excited about where we are. Tremendous opportunity, great challenge and all things in college football are a lot of fun right now. So really excited about where we're going, where we're at.” - Sean Lewis on his team playing in the New Mexico Bowl.

WR Sides, Landon

WR Dorner, Cameron

WR Young, Wyatt

WR Coleman, Miles

TE Williams III, Tre

QB Mestemaker, Drew

RB Hawkins, Caleb

WR Brown, Donovan

WR Acevedo, Nathan

WR Napier, Jordan

TE Adams, Seth

QB Denegal, Jayden

RB Sutton, Lucky

Passing: Drew Mestemaker (4,129)

Rushing: Caleb Hawkins (1,236)

Receiving: Wyatt Young (1,209)

Touchdowns: Caleb Hawkins (26)

Passing: Jayden Denegal (1,807)

Rushing: Lucky Sutton (1,237)

Receiving: Jordan Napier (629)

Touchdowns: Lucky Sutton (10)

Coaches:

North Texas Mean Green: Drew Svoboda (Interim)

San Diego State Aztecs: Sean Lewis (2nd season)