North Texas Mean Green vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Prediction, Best Bets and Preview - 09/25/2021

by James Q

North Texas Mean Green vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Prediction, Best Bets and Preview - 09/25/2021

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 25th, 2021 
Venue: Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, Louisiana
Where to Watch: STAD

Opening NCAAF Odds at USA Sportsbooks

BetMGM:  Spread: LA Tech  -11.5  O/U:  64.5 points
Caesars: Spread:  LA Tech -11  O/U:  64.5 points
DraftKings:  Spread: LA Tech -11  O/U: 64.5 points


Season Record

Mean Green:  1-2 (C-USA)
Bulldogs:  2-1 (C-USA)

This C-USA matchup won’t raise any eyebrows across the sports world.  Two small programs in a small conference. Losing records, battling it out to get to .500 in the fourth game of a season that will soon bring bigger opponents on the schedule.  They are both almost guaranteed a losing record if they don’t win C-USA.  They epitomize the problem with college football… your program will never build into anything more than it is now.  They can have a good season relative to their conference, but the Top 25 teams will always be drawn from the same 50-60 top programs from bigger schools in bigger conferences.  College football picks from college football games in conference USA are about gambling… nothing else.  In the next 50 years neither of these teams will make a college playoff game no matter if the bracket expands to 8, 12, 16, or 24.  


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Mean Green vs Bulldogs Preview and Analysis

Recent Form 

North Texas opened their season as a host to the Northwestern State Demons. The Demons came to Denton, TX and got spanked by the Mean Green 44-14.  The good times didn’t last long though.  In Game 2 NTSU played a road game against SMU and got run over 35-12.  For game 3 they welcomed the UAB Blazers and againn got trampled 40-6.  Mean Green games are on a noticeably downward trend.

Louisiana Tech's games have been a lot closer to get to the same record.  In Game 1 they had a knock down, drag out, bare knuckle fight with the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the battle of the Bulldogs.  The final score was 35-34, a real tough loss.  Game 2 brought the Southeastern Louisiana Lions to Ruston, the opposite of a ground game ensued and when the dust cleared Louisiana got the win, 45-42.  Game 3 brought the SMU Mustangs for yet another razor thin finish… SMU got the win 39-37.  Louisiana is sitting at a 1-2 record after scoring more and getting more yards over a 3 game span than they have in years! 

Offensive Analysis
The Mean Green are scoring 20.7 ppg on 417.7 yards per game.  Quarterbacks Jace Ruder and Austin Aune are both transfers.  Jace is the starter even though he was born in Kansas and Austin in Argyle, Texas.  (that doesn’t mean anything but is fun to point out,... myself I go with the kid who has had the greater likelihood of having bought a Dr. Pepper from the Bartonville Store).  RB DeAndre Torrey is practically doing all the rushing.  WR Roderic Burns leads the team in receiving but gets some support from WR Jyaire Shorter.

The Bulldogs offense is scoring a very respectable 38.7 points per game on 433.3 ypg.  They have 8 passing touchdowns and 5 rushing touchdowns in three games AND a losing record.  QB Austin Kendall slings the ball all over the field and only has 3 interceptions so far.  RB Marcus Williams has 185 yards to lead all runners but zero touchdowns.  The fun in this squad is the WR corps Tre Harris, Bub Means , and Smoke Harris.  Tre leads the team but one big reception from either of the other two would change that.  If the Bulldog fans aren’t calling these guys “The Three Musketeers” or some variation… then no one in Ruston is interested in football.   

Defensive Analysis

Both these teams have holes in the defense.  They both allow too much scoring so they struggle to win close games and struggle to outscore anybody.  North Texas stats or Louisiana Tech stats don’t paint the whole picture as the quality of opponents has varied widely.  On paper it looks as if Louisiana will be better than North Texas… except for the fact that they won’t be able to stop North Texas as they haven’t stopped anybody yet.

North Texas vs Louisiana Tech Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, September 25th is… Louisiana Tech  38 -  North Texas 35

That’s right.  North Texas will beat an 11 point spread if only because Louisiana can not hold a double digit spread.   This is also a pick for an OVER.  Do not Parlay, bet individually.  I never parlay in sep.

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NCAAF Betting Trends

Louisiana Tech is 8-6 in 14 all-time against North Texas.
Louisiana Tech defeated North Texas, 42-31, in their last meeting
North Texas is 2-9 against the spread (ATS) in its last 11 games against C-USA
The total has hit Over in 9 of Louisiana Tech's last 10 home games

Key Injuries

Mean Green:  several wide receivers are questionable for the game against louisiana tech:  Loronzo Thompson, Jyaire Shorter, Tommy Bush.  They may all suit up and play... Or NTSU could be missing all three. 

Players to Watch

Mean Green:  WR Jyaire Shorter.  If he plays he should see a volume of tosses.  Louisiana Tech’s defense struggles to stop anybody… so naturally they will focus on trying to stop Roderic Burns who is at the top of the scouting report.  Time to step up Jyaire.

Bulldogs:  LB Tyler Grubbs. The Bulldogs desperately need the defense to step up and get some stops.  No stops, no wins.  Tyler Grubbs needs to not only lead in tackles, but lead in general.  If everyone played like Tyler they’d be 3-0 right now.

Starting Lineups

Mean Green:  QB Jace Ruder, RB DeAndre Torrey, TE Jake Roberts, WR Jyaire Shorter, WR Deonte Simpson, WR Roderic Burns, LT Cole Brown, LG Kaci Moreka, C Manase Mose, RG Daizion Carroll, RT Jacob Brammer (the sledgehammer)

Bulldogs:  QB Austin Kendall, RB Marcus Williams JR, WR Samuel Emilus, WR Bub Means, WR Smoke Harris, WR Griffin Herbert, LT Biron Rossell, LG Joshua Mote, C  Abraham Delfin, RG Kelton Hollins, RT Chris Fournier


Statistical Leaders

Mean Green:  
Passing:  Jace Ruder  531 yards
Rushing:  DeAndre Torrey  397 yards
Receiving:  Roderic Burns  276 yards
Tackles:  KD Davis  27
Interceptions:  John Davis Jr.  1 

Passing: Austin Kendall  837 yards
Rushing:  Marcus Williams Jr  185 yards
Receivers:  Tre Harris  181 yards
Tackles:  Tyler Grubbs  27
Interceptions:   BeeJay Williamson  2


NTSU:  Seth Litrell
LA Tech:  Skip Holtz.  

Weather Forecast 

Sunny.  85*  low 4 mph winds bringing plant spores and insects from the swamps over yonder.  


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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