by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Dec 17, 2022Frisco Bowl
Time: 9:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Boise State -11
FanDuel: Boise State -10.5
BetMGM: Boise State -10.5
Caesars: Boise State -10.5
Season record
North Texas: 7-6
Boise State: 9-4
Bowl season is here! There are 42 games that are going to be determining how this season ends. We appreciate you for hanging with us during this college football season, and you know it’s not over yet. We’re going to keep on rolling and giving your our best picks over the course of the next month. All the way up until the College Football Playoff, which is going to have some incredible games. Do you have the right idea when you head to the books for these important games? Our champion handicappers surely have you covered. Will Rogers is running an impressive 24-11-0 in the last month. Al McMordie has also been cashing in heavily with a 40-29-1 mark in college football over the last 30 days. Our guys here have you ready to go for what should be an exciting week. Be tuned to bigal.com for everything!
North Texas - Boise State preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
North Texas: lost 48-27 at UTSA (C-USA championship)
Boise State: lost 28-16 vs. Fresno State (Mountain West championship)
North Texas analysis
The North Texas Mean Green had a strong end to the regular season, winning three of four to earn a spot in the Conference-USA title game. They just ran into the buzzsaw known as the UTSA Roadrunners and found themselves in the Frisco Bowl.
North Texas has been an up-and-down team against the spread this season. There was a 4-2 straight-up run that included the Mean Green covering in all six of those games, four of them by double digits. They were favored in two of them, one of them by 21 points in a 38-point win over FIU on Nov. 5.
This is a run-first team that has elements of a passing attack sprinkled in. Quarterback Austin Aune, however, has to play better. Sure, North Texas did well in cutting the lead to 7 in the fourth quarter, but if he played better than his 14 of 29 passing effort for 194 yards and two interceptions, one has to think the Mean Green would’ve played better.
Ikaika Ragsdale ran for 108 yards and a touchdown, and that’s the kind of production that North Texas needs in this battle as 10.5-point underdogs. North Texas has failed to cover in three straight, including one has a 14.5-point favorite against Rice in which they won by only 4 against the inferior Owls.
Boise State analysis
The improbable run to the finish for the Boise State Broncos came to an end in the Mountain West championship game. Boise State had run the table in conference play during the regular season, but couldn’t stop the Fresno State offense as 3-point favorites and lost 28-16. But the Broncos have relied on a stout running game since the early part of the season.
Boise State hasn’t been as inconsistent as the Mean Green when it comes to the spread, but they have alternated over the last six, including failing to cover as favorites in a 20-17 win at Wyoming on Nov. 19.
The loss to Fresno State was the first time Boise State was really contained. Running back George Holani ran just 13 times because the Broncos spent the entire time trying to play from behind via the air. Quarterback Taylen Green completed 17 of 38 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown, but also tossed two interceptions. He’s not someone known to win with his arm, at least for the time being.
If Boise State is going to have a chance, they need to run more than 30 times. It doesn’t need to be lopsided, but clearly if the Broncos are going to win, they can’t rely on the young quarterback to win a game with his arm.
Prediction
North Texas’ defense doesn’t have the big-play availability to stop defenses either on the ground or through the air. All Boise State has to do is control the clock and let their strong defense take over. Trust Boise to cover in this one. Boise State by 17
Betting trends
North Texas is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games.
Boise State is 40-23 ATS in games on a grass field since 1992.
Boise State is 6-0 ATS after a straight-up loss the last two seasons.
North Texas is 24-11 ATS on the road after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992.
Statistical leaders
North Texas:
Passing: Austin Aune – 3,309 yards, 32 TD, 13 INT
Rushing: Ayo Adeyi – 740 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Roderic Burns – 650 yards, 1 TD
Boise State:
Passing: Taylen Green – 1,905 yards, 13 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: George Holani – 1,133 yards, 10 TD
Receiving: Latrell Caples – 462 yards, 4 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
