North Carolina Tar Heels vs Virginia Cavaliers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/24/2026

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, January 24, 2026

Venue:  John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  UNC +7.5, UVA -7.5; Over/Under:  149.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  UNC +7.5, UVA -7.5; Over/Under:  149.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  UNC +7.5, UVA -7.5; Over/Under:  149.5 points

North Carolina Tar Heels:  15-4 (3-3) (9th place, ACC)

Virginia Cavaliers:  16-2 (5-1) (3rd place, ACC)

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North Carolina Tar Heels:  2-3  last 5

Virginia Cavaliers:  5-0  last 5

North Carolina is entering this game with a 15-4 record overall, a 3-3 record in conference games, and they are 1-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in their last game. Caleb Wilson led the team in points in that game with 22 while Henri Veesaar was next on the team with 15. Caleb Wilson led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Henri Veesaar led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 50.8% from the field, 38.2% from 3-point range, and 69.6% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 82.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.5 PPG against them. North Carolina has an ATS record of 10-9 this season and their O/U record is 8-11.

Virginia is entering this game with a 16-2 record overall, a 5-1 conference record, and they are 10-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the SMU Mustangs in their last game. Malik Thomas led the team in points in that game with 23 while Thijs De Ridder was next on the team with 17. Dallin Hall led the team in assists with 9 in that game while Malik Thomas led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 41.7% from the field, 38.7% from 3-point range, and 83.3% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 84 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 67.1 PPG against them. Virginia has an ATS record of 11-5-2 this season and their O/U record is 7-11.

The current betting odds have Virginia listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Virginia has looked great in their games this season with their 16-2 record overall and their 5-1 conference record which has them right near the top of the ACC. They have looked great on their home court too with their 10-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, North Carolina has looked good in their games this season with their 15-4 record overall, but their 3-3 conference record has them right in the middle of the ACC. They haven't been a good road team either with their 1-3 road record this year. UNC is off a big home win over Notre Dame in their last one and that was a nice get right game for them after going through a rough stretch, but they still beat up on one of the worst teams in the conference and they haven't looked that good lately either. They are 2-3 in their last 5 games and have struggled a lot more since getting into the ACC schedule, and they haven't even faced many of the top teams in the conference either. Virginia has been rolling in their games lately though, going 5-0 in their last 5 games. Their only loss in the ACC was in OT against VA Tech, but they have been rolling since then with 5 wins in a row now and they have a ton of momentum on their side. They are off a tight road win over SMU in their last one, but they have picked up some good wins in the conference already and they have won a lot of those games comfortably too. This won't be a back and forth game like their road game against SMU as Virginai has looked a lot better at home this year, so look for them to take advantage of a UNC team that has struggled in conference play and has been terrible in road games. The best way to place a bet here is on Virginia to cover the spread in this game. 

North Carolina Virginia Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Saturday, January 24, 2026 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Virginia 78 UNC 68.

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North Carolina Tar Heels: 9-5 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. 9-4 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% of their attempts or more. 16-5 OVER when the total is 140 to 149.5. 10-4 OVER after 3 or more consecutive overs. 

Virginia Cavaliers: 2-6 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 18-24 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. 4-0 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. 

North Carolina Tar Heels:  J. Brown (C) Questionable - Undisclosed. I. Matlekovic (C) Questionable - Undisclosed.

Virginia Cavaliers:  None.

"Very satisfied. At halftime, I told them and throughout the first half that we got an eight- or nine-point lead. Let's extend it. Let's put consecutive good possessions together. I was encouraged at halftime. We didn't extend it, but we didn't blow it. And I said, okay, let's take another step. Let's get off to a good start. First four minutes of the game, let's raise our level even more, but just getting started." - Hubert Davis after his team’s win against Notre Dame in their last game. 

“Yeah, it was a huge win for us on the road. You know, it's tough to get wins on the road, especially in conference. We have a ton of respect for SMU. We knew it was going to be a physical game and a hard fought game. Our guys kind of stayed together throughout the game. We had some runs and had to make some big plays down the stretch. Get the key stop at the end, that was huge for us to escape with a win. But just really proud of the guy's effort overall in the entirety of the game.” - Ryan Odom after his team’s win against SMU in their last game. 

L. Bogavac 

K. Evans 

J. Stevenson 

H. Veesaar 

C. Wilson

T. De Ridder 

J. Grünloh 

D. Hall 

S. Lewis 

M. Thomas

PPG: Caleb Wilson (19.8)

APG: Kyan Evans (3.2)

Reb/G: Caleb Wilson (10.4)

PPG: Thijs De Ridder (16.1)

APG: Dallin Hall (4.4)

Reb/G: Johann Grunloh (6.8)

Coaches:

North Carolina Tar Heels: Hubert Davis (5th season)

Virginia Cavaliers: Ryan Odom (1st season)