North Carolina Tar Heels vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/18/2025

Game Time: 9:10 pm ET, Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Venue:  University of Dayton Arena, Dayton, OH

Where to Watch:  truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  UNC -4.5, SDSU +4.5; Over/Under:  142.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  UNC -4.5, SDSU +4.5; Over/Under:  142.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  UNC -4.5, SDSU +4.5; Over/Under:  142.5 points

North Carolina Tar Heels:  22-13 (13-7) (5th place, ACC)

San Diego State Aztecs:  21-9 (14-6) (4th place, MWC)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Big Al McMordie is on a HOT STREAK in college basketball on a 32-22 CBB RUN for +$7,530 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

North Carolina Tar Heels:  3-2  last 5

San Diego State Aztecs:  3-2  last 5

North Carolina is entering this game with a 22-13 record overall, a 13-7 record in conference games, and they are 4-4 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Duke Blue Devils in their last game. Ven-Allen Lubin led the team in points in that game with 20 while Elliot Cadeau was next on the team with 15. Elliot Cadeau led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Ven-Allen Lubin led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 47.3% from the field, 17.6% from 3-point range, and 66.7% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 80.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 75 PPG against them. North Carolina has an ATS record of 15-19-1 this season and their O/U record is 18-17.

San Diego State is entering this game with a 21-9 record overall, a 14-6 conference record, and they are 3-2 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Boise State Broncos in their last game. Nicholas Boyd led the team in points in that game with 20 while Jared Coleman-Jones was next on the team with 7. Nicholas Boyd and Miles Byrd each led the team in assists with 3 in that game while Jared Coleman-Jones led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 38.3% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 60% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 70.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 63.6 PPG against them. San Diego State has an ATS record of 12-17 this season and their O/U record is 15-14.

The current betting odds have San Diego State listed as a 4.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. San Diego State has looked good in their games this season with their 21-9 record overall and their 14-6 conference record which had them in the top half of the MWC. They are also 3-2 in their neutral site games this season. Meanwhile, North Carolina has looked good in their games this season with their 22-13 record overall and their 13-7 conference record which had them in the top half of the ACC. They weren't great in their neutral site games though, going 4-4 in those, and they haven't beaten any good opponents this season either. They are 3-2 in their last 5 games with both of those losses being against Duke, but they are coming off a loss to Duke with Duke missing their best player Cooper Flagg. North Carolina is very fortunate to even be in this position as they weren't a deserving team with their resume. San Diego State didn't play in a stronger conference, but they beat a lot of good teams in their own conference this season and they have a lot of experience in this tournament from previous years. San Diego State isn't the type of team to give up a lot of points with their defensive efforts either so they are going to make UNC earn every point they get and will keep the game tight even in a loss. The best way to place a bet here is on North Carolina to cover the spread in this game. 

North Carolina San Diego State Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Tuesday, March 18, 2025 (9:10 pm ET start time) is UNC 66 SDSU 64.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this North Carolina Tar Heels San Diego State Aztecs prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAB predictions and previews.

North Carolina Tar Heels: 18-30 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 12-18 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses. 8-18 1H ATS in all neutral court games. 30-20 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 7-3 UNDER on the road after 3 or more consecutive unders.

San Diego State Aztecs: 11-6 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 15-8 1H ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses. 26-16 1H ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 6-3 UNDER in a postseason tournament game. 36-22 UNDER versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game.

North Carolina Tar Heels:  None.

San Diego State Aztecs:  R. Waters (G) Out - Foot.

"I can’t be more proud of a team than I am right now. Just love these guys to death. I love their fight, I love their togetherness, I love how close they are. I told them after the game, I didn’t think I could be more proud of a group than I am right now. But I am more proud. I thank Jesus every day that I get to be their head coach.” - Hubert Davis after his team’s loss against Duke in the ACC Tournament.

“My thoughts on today are right before tip, I had my third granddaughter born back in San Diego, so I'm happy about that. At least something makes you happy. The game, if I were just to read the numbers, defensively, our opponent shot 33 percent from the field and 27 percent from three. I think we'd have a pretty good chance to win. But the thing we put on the board before the game and the thing we said at halftime had to happen is we had to rebound. Because San Diego State and Boise, always comes down to rebounding, and I think that's the key to the game. Those second-chance opportunities were the difference in the game, and we didn't get enough of them. So, we missed shots and didn't get second-chance opportunities, and they missed shots and found ways to run down long rebounds. You shoot 40 threes, there are going to be a lot of long rebounds. So, then it's just try to beat them to that rebound, run it down, get there before they get there. There were some around the glass we didn't get. But at the end of the day, it came down to rebounding, and that was the difference.” - Brian Dutcher after his team’s loss against BSU in the MWC Tournament.

E. Cadeau 

R. Davis 

V. Lubin 

D. Powell 

J. Withers

N. Boyd 

M. Byrd 

J. Coleman-Jones 

B. Davis 

M. Gwath

PPG: R. Davis (17.3)

APG: E. Cadeau (6)

Reb/G: S. Trimble (5.2)

PPG: N. Boyd (13.2)

APG: N. Boyd (4)

Reb/G: M. Gwath (5.2)

Coaches:

North Carolina Tar Heels: Hubert Davis (4th season)

San Diego State Aztecs: Brian Dutcher (8th season)