North Carolina Tar Heels vs North Carolina State Wolfpack Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 02/17/2026

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Venue:  Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  UNC +6.5, NCSU -6.5; Over/Under:  158.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  UNC +6.5, NCSU -6.5; Over/Under:  158.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  UNC +6.5, NCSU -6.5; Over/Under:  158.5 points

North Carolina Tar Heels:  20-5 (8-4) (6th place, ACC)

North Carolina State Wolfpack:  18-8 (9-4) (5th place, ACC)

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North Carolina Tar Heels:  4-1  last 5

North Carolina State Wolfpack:  3-2  last 5

UNC is entering this game with a 20-5 record overall, an 8-4 record in conference games, and they are 3-4 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Pittsburgh Panthers in their last game. Jarin Stevenson and Seth Trimble each led the team in points in that game with 19 while Zayden High and Luka Bogavac each were next on the team with 15. Derek Dixon led the team in assists with 7 in that game while Zayden High and Derek Dixon each led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 46.7% from the field, 36% from 3-point range, and 82.4% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 81.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 70.4 PPG against them. UNC has an ATS record of 14-11 this season and their O/U record is 11-14.

NC State is entering this game with an 18-8 record overall, a 9-4 conference record, and they are 10-4 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Miami Hurricanes in their last game. Ven-Allen Lubin and Matt Able each led the team in points in that game with 17 while Paul McNeil was next on the team with 14. Quadir Copeland led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Ven-Allen Lubin led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 49.1% from the field, 37.5% from 3-point range, and 86.7% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 85 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 74.4 PPG against them. NC State has an ATS record of 14-11-1 this season and their O/U record is 16-10.

The current betting odds have NC State listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. NC State has looked good in their games this season with their 18-8 record overall and their 9-4 conference record which has them in the top half of the ACC. They have looked good on their home court too with their 10-4 home record this season. Meanwhile, North Carolina has looked good in their games this season with their 20-5 record overall and their 8-4 conference record which has them in the top half of the ACC. They haven't been a great road team though with their 3-4 road record this year. Most of their losses this season have been in road games and even though they are off a big win over Pittsburgh in their last one, their last road game was another loss. They lost by 9 on the road to Miami-FL and now UNC is missing some key players in their lineup. They are 4-1 in their last 5 games, but these injuries are fresh and they are going to have an impact on the team as they will struggle more, especially in these rivalry games on the road. NC State hasn't looked that great lately as they are off a home loss to Miami in their last one and they have lost 2 games in a row now, but they will be looking to bounce back at home and pick up a great win against a ranked opponent. NC State took a really bad loss to Louisville by over 40 points and they tried to bounce back in their last one but blew a late lead at home against Miami. That is only going to motivate them more to play better in this one, especially with a ranked rival coming into to town. UNC should start taking a bit of a step back now that they are banged up, so look for NC State to take advantage of those injuries. The best way to place a bet here is on NC State to cover the spread in this game. 

North Carolina North Carolina State Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Tuesday, February 17, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is NC State 74 UNC 64.

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North Carolina Tar Heels: 10-17 ATS on the road when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 10-19 ATS on the road vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts or more. 26-17 UNDER after playing a home game. 26-17 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 

North Carolina State Wolfpack: 7-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 6-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. 13-5 UNDER versus good passing teams, averaging 16 assists/game or more. 23-15 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game.

North Carolina Tar Heels:  H. Veesaar (C) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Wilson (F) Questionable - Wrist. J. Brown (C) Questionable - Foot. I. Matlekovic (C) Questionable - Hand.

North Carolina State Wolfpack:  J. Deng (F) Out - Redshirt. C. Langdon (F) Questionable - Undisclosed.

“With the news that Caleb was going to be out, and we didn’t know if Henri was playing or not, so we were preparing for Pitt with two different game plans and different rotations and all different types of stuff. And I felt like the two days of practice, they took everything in.” - Hubert Davis after his team’s win against Pitt in their last game. 

"Just poor execution on our part. I mean, get a seven point lead, give up an and-one. We can't get the ball in bounds. Throw it to the corner twice. Guards don't come to get open in the middle of the court. Just a six minute game. We work on it all the time. We played one yesterday, and we just we didn't execute. We didn't execute. When you don't execute, you deserve the results that you get." - Will Wade after his team’s loss against Miami-Florida in their last game. 

L. Bogavac 

K. Evans 

J. Stevenson 

H. Veesaar 

C. Wilson

Q. Copeland 

T. Holloman 

V. Lubin 

P. McNeil 

D. Williams

PPG: Caleb Wilson (19.8)

APG: Kyan Evans (2.9)

Reb/G: Caleb Wilson (9.4)

PPG: Darrion Williams (14.2)

APG: Quadir Copeland (6.8)

Reb/G: Ven-Allen Lubin (7.1)

Coaches:

North Carolina Tar Heels: Hubert Davis (5th season)

North Carolina State Wolfpack: Will Wade (1st season)