North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/09/2024

Game Time: 6:30 pm ET, Saturday, March 9, 2024

Venue:  Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  UNC +4.5, Duke -4.5; Over/Under:  149.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  UNC +4.5, Duke -4.5; Over/Under:  149.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  UNC +4.5, Duke -4.5; Over/Under:  149.5 points

North Carolina Tar Heels:  24-6 (16-3) (1st place, ACC)

Duke Blue Devils:  24-6 (15-4) (2nd place, ACC)

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North Carolina Tar Heels:  5-0  last 5

Duke Blue Devils:  4-1  last 5

North Carolina is entering this game with a 24-6 record overall, a 16-3 record in conference games, and they are 7-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in their last game. RJ Davis led the team in points per game in that game with 22 while Armando Bacot and Cormac Ryan each were next on the team with 14. RJ Davis led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Harrison Ingram led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 45.1% from the field, 37.9% from 3-point range, and 60% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 81.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.8 PPG against them. North Carolina has an ATS record of 17-13 this season and their O/U record is 13-16-1.

Duke is entering this game with a 24-6 record overall, a 15-4 conference record, and they are 15-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the North Carolina State Wolfpack in their last game. Jeremy Roach led the team in points in that game with 21 while Jared McCain was next on the team with 16. Tyrese Proctor led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Mark Mitchell led the team in rebounds with 6. They were 47.1% from the field, 30% from 3-point range, and 66.7% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 80.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 66.7 PPG against them. Duke has an ATS record of 18-11-1 this season and their O/U record is 12-18.

The current betting odds have Duke listed as a 4.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Duke has looked really good in their games this season with their 24-6 record overall which has them ranked inside the top 25 teams in the country and also ranked inside the top 10. They have looked great in the ACC this year with their 15-4 conference record which has them right near the top of the conference and they have also looked great on their home court with their 15-2 home record. Meanwhile, North Carolina has also looked really good in their games this season with their 24-6 record overall which has them ranked inside the top 25 teams in the country and also ranked inside the top 10. They are leading the ACC right now with their 16-3 conference record and have also been a really good road team this year with their 7-2 road record. North Carolina has also been the hotter team coming into this one with their 5-0 record in their last 5 games, but Duke is 4-1 in their last 5 games and has some momentum of their own right now with 3 wins in a row. This game also means a lot to Duke since it is the final game of the regular season and Duke can win a share in the ACC regular season championship with a win in this game. Duke has the home advantage here and plenty of motivation to win this game, also losing to UNC on the road earlier this season. Expect Duke to bring their best effort in this game and close out the regular season with a huge home win. The best way to place a bet here is on Duke to cover the spread in this game. 

North Carolina Duke Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Saturday, March 9, 2024 (6:30 pm ET start time) is Duke 89 UNC 82.

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North Carolina Tar Heels: 10-22 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. 2-8 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival. 8-14 ATS after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite. 8-1 UNDER in road games. 14-5 UNDER against conference opponents. 6-1 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more.

Duke Blue Devils: 18-9 ATS as a favorite. 11-6 ATS in all home games. 9-3 ATS after 5 straight games forcing opponents to commit 14 or less turnovers. 10-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is 145 to 149.5. 13-6 UNDER against conference opponents. 9-3 UNDER after 5 straight games forcing the opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.

North Carolina Tar Heels:  None.

Duke Blue Devils:  C. Foster (G) Out Sat - Foot. C. Reeves (C) out for season - Ankle. J. Schutt (G) out for season - Redshirt.

“Armando can shoot the 3, and I’ve told him he can shoot it, I just want him to shoot it at the right time. He’s so good around the basket, I don’t want him to go away from dominating points in the paint.” - Hubert Davis after his team’s win against Notre Dame in their last game on Tuesday.

“Burns is a handful, obviously. But we took away their 3s. Sometimes it can hurt you where you’re giving up both, you’re giving up him and you’re giving up 3s. Our thing was just try to make him work for everything. We did that.” - Jon Scheyer after his team’s win against NC State in their last game on Monday.

A. Bacot 

E. Cadeau 

R. Davis 

H. Ingram 

C. Ryan

K. Filipowski 

J. McCain 

M. Mitchell 

T. Proctor 

J. Roach

PPG: R. Davis (21.5)

APG: E. Cadeau (4.1)

Reb/G: A. Bacot (10.2)

PPG: K. Filipowski (16.5)

APG: T. Proctor (3.8)

Reb/G: K. Filipowski (8)

Coaches:

North Carolina Tar Heels: Hubert Davis (3rd season)

Duke Blue Devils: Jon Scheyer (2nd season)