North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/05/2022

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Friday, Mar 04, 2022
Game Time: 6:00 pm ET, Saturday, March 5, 2022
Venue:  Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
Where to Watch:  ESPN

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  UNC +11.5, Duke -11.5; Over/Under:  153.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  UNC +11.5, Duke -11.5; Over/Under:  153.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  UNC +11.5, Duke -11.5; Over/Under:  153.5 points
 

Season Record

North Carolina Tar Heels:  22-8 (2nd place, ACC)
Duke Blue Devils:  26-4 (1st place, ACC)
 
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North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
North Carolina Tar Heels:  4-1 last 5
Duke Blue Devils:  5-0 last 5
 
 
 

North Carolina Tar Heels Analysis

UNC is coming into this game with a 22-8 record overall and they are 7-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their last conference matchup of the year and they are currently 14-5 in their conference games this season. They have won 6 of their last 7 games and are coming into this one on a 4 game winning streak. Their last loss was against the Pittsburgh Panthers while their 4 wins since then have come against the Virginia Tech Hokies, the Louisville Cardinals, the NC State Wolfpack, and the Syracuse Orange in their last game. Brady Manek led the team in points in that game with 22 while Caleb Love off the bench was next on the team with 21 points. Leaky Black led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Armando Bacot led the team in rebounds with 18. They were 40.8% from the field, 38.9% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 78.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 72.4 PPG against them. UNC has an ATS record of 14-15-1 this season and their O/U record is 18-12.
 
 

Duke Blue Devils Analysis

Duke is coming into this game with a 26-4 record overall and they are 15-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the last conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are currently 16-3 in their conference games this season. They have won 12 of their last 13 games and are coming into this one on a 7 game winning streak. Their last loss was against the Virginia Cavaliers while their 7 wins since then have come against the Clemson Tigers, the Boston College Eagles, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, the Florida State Seminoles, the Virginia Cavaliers, the Syracuse Orange, and the Pittsburgh Panthers in their last game. Trevor Keels led the team in points in that game with 27 while Paolo Banchero was next on the team with 21 points. Wendell Moore led the team in assists in that game with 5 while AJ Griffin led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 59.3% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 84.6% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 80.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 65.1 PPG against them. Duke has an ATS record of 17-11-2 this season and their O/U record is 15-14-1.
 

 

North Carolina vs Duke Prediction

UNC has been playing very well in their recent games as they have won their last 4 straight coming into this game. They have been winning a lot of their games by double digits as well and they have been good on the road this season with a 7-3 record. They are currently sitting in 2nd place but they are going up against a Duke team that is in 1st place and they have been great at home all season with a 15-2 record. Duke has also been playing very well recently winning their last 7 straight games and they have been smashing a lot of teams in their way. They are a much better team than UNC is here and they should win this last game of the season but UNC has still been playing well recently and should keep this game within single digits.
 
North Carolina Duke Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Saturday, March 5, 2022 (6:00 pm ET start time) is Duke 85 UNC 77.
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NCAAB Betting Trends

 
North Carolina Tar Heels: 7-17 ATS after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games. 7-18 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite. 10-2 OVER after a combined score of 155 points or more.
Duke Blue Devils: 17-12 ATS in all games. 53-31 OVER in all games. 31-15 OVER as a home favorite or pick.
 

Key Injuries

 
North Carolina Tar Heels:  J. McKoy (F) Out indefinitely - Knee injury. D. Garcia (F) out for season - Personal. A. Harris (G) out for season - Undisclosed injury.
Duke Blue Devils:  None.
 

Notable Quotes

 
"I will say I'm more of a complete all-around point guard. My dad was more like a scorer. He liked to hunt his shots a lot." - R.J. Davis on his style of play.
 
 
"I didn't talk to them about ‘it's my last road game, guys win it for me.' I want it to be their moment." - Coach K after his team’s win against Pittsburgh.
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
North Carolina Tar Heels
A. Bacot 
L. Black 
R. Davis 
C. Love
B. Manek
 
Duke Blue Devils
P. Banchero 
T. Keels 
W. Moore 
J. Roach 
M. Williams
 

Statistical Leaders

 
North Carolina Tar Heels
PPG: A. Bacot (16.4)
APG: C. Love (3.7)
Reb/G: A. Bacot (12.7)
 
Duke Blue Devils
PPG: P. Banchero (16.9)
APG: W. Moore Jr. (4.6)
RPG: P. Banchero (7.8)
 
Coaches:
North Carolina Tar Heels: Hubert Davis (1st season)
Duke Blue Devils: Mike Krzyzewski (42nd season)


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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