by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Sep 30, 2022
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Clemson -6.5
FanDuel: Clemson -6.5
BetMGM: Clemson -7
Caesars: Clemson -7
Season record
No. 10 NC State: 4-0
No. 5 Clemson: 4-0 (2-0 ACC)
What a big week and some fun shake up in the top 25, as we enter Week 5 of the college football campaign. And what a week it was for our own Wayne Root with a 7-1-0 stint to continue what has been a strong start for our champion handicappers through the early stages of this college football season. But now things are going to get interesting with conference play underway and some big-time matchups in the coming weeks. You're going to want to follow our top-notch handicappers if you want to get on this action. Make sure you visit our Best Bets page to find out more.
Team X - Team Y preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
NC State: won 41-10 vs. UConn
Clemson: won 51-45 (2OT) at Wake Forest
The biggest challenger to become the new kings of the ACC visits the current kings of said conference this weekend, and what a game this is shaping up to become. The North Carolina State Wolfpack, now the No. 10 team in the nation, will get a chance to show just how good of a team they are with a visit to the No. 5 Clemson Tigers on Saturday. NC State is 4-0 and playing its conference opener. But if there’s any team that’s capable of taking over the ACC and knocking Clemson off a peg, it might be the Wolfpack. NC State is coming off a 41-10 win over Connecticut last week. That is not the biggest surprise because God bless UConn, they shouldn’t be playing in games any time soon. But ever since surviving their Week 1 game against East Carolina, NC State has won the games it should be winning and that includes a resounding win over Texas Tech two weeks ago. Quarterback Devin Leary threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns with Thayer Thomas reeling in 115 yards on five receptions and a touchdown, which included a 75-yard bomb on the first play of the game 14 seconds in.
The biggest challenger to become the new kings of the ACC visits the current kings of said conference this weekend, and what a game this is shaping up to become. The North Carolina State Wolfpack, now the No. 10 team in the nation, will get a chance to show just how good of a team they are with a visit to the No. 5 Clemson Tigers on Saturday. NC State is 4-0 and playing its conference opener. But if there’s any team that’s capable of taking over the ACC and knocking Clemson off a peg, it might be the Wolfpack. NC State is coming off a 41-10 win over Connecticut last week. That is not the biggest surprise because God bless UConn, they shouldn’t be playing in games any time soon. But ever since surviving their Week 1 game against East Carolina, NC State has won the games it should be winning and that includes a resounding win over Texas Tech two weeks ago. Quarterback Devin Leary threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns with Thayer Thomas reeling in 115 yards on five receptions and a touchdown, which included a 75-yard bomb on the first play of the game 14 seconds in.
"They came out excited to play and with a great start. It's good to see Devin get in a rhythm," Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren said. "Almost everything we talked about during the week, we got to see."
NC State opened as 10-point underdogs but the line has drastically moved to as low as 7 at most books as the week has progressed. The Wolfpack are 4-5 straight up in their last nine as an underdog and 57-110 overall since 1992. But they’ve been a good bet on the books, which means if this game stays close, there’s a chance the Wolfpack could pull off the upset.
But nothing will come easy against the Clemson Tigers, the kings of the ACC for the last number of years and it appears that will be the case again barring anything drastic. If there was a time for Clemson to finally get knocked down a peg, it would’ve been last week against Sam Hartman and Wake Forest. Despite the Demon Deacons’ best efforts, Clemson remained undefeated in a 51-45 double overtime win in Winston-Salem.
In perhaps what was the biggest moment of his collegiate career, D.J. Uiagalelei threw for 371 yards and five touchdowns in by far the best start of his Clemson tenure. Will Shipley ran for 104 yards and a touchdown, as Clemson put up 559 yards against Wake Forest.
"Honestly, man, that was a crazy game,” Uiagalelei said, adding: “You could just see the heart of our team — the heart of the offense, the heart of the defense. When plays had to be made, we made the plays. That just shows a great sign of a good football team.”
Here’s the key part of why this win was impressive. It has little to do with Wake Forest being a good team, and it has little to do with Clemson being one of the top teams in the country. Wake Forest’s defense is not that good. It’s the fact that the Clemson defense, known for its strong play, gave up 45 points and six touchdowns to Hartman. For Uiagalelei to respond and have a great game is impressive. If he doesn’t come close to his performance, Clemson doesn’t win that game. For the first time, the quarterback has arrived and showed he can actually play.
Prediction
Clemson has won 24 of its last 28 straight up as a favorite and has won 14 straight when favored at home. If NC State had one win against a better team in this span, I’d trust them, but I think Clemson holds on and barely covers. Clemson by 8
Betting trends
NC State is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 games.
NC State is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 conference games.
NC State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight following a game where they forced no turnovers.
Clemson is 4-10 ATS as a home favorite in its last 14.
Clemson is 9-11 ATS in its last 20 conference games.
Statistical leaders
NC State:
Passing: Devin Leary -- 890 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Demie Sumo-Karngbaye -- 252 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Thayer Thomas -- 217 yards, 2 TD
Clemson:
Passing: DJ Uiagalelei -- 1,033 yards, 10 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Will Shipley -- 353 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Beaux Collins -- 218 yards, 4 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
