NLCS San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/23/2022

Game Time: 2:37 pm ET, Sunday, October 23rd, 2022

Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings: Moneyline:   Padres +120, Phillies -141; O/U 6.5

PointsBet:  Moneyline: Padres +120, Phillies -141; O/U 6.5

Caesars: Moneyline: Padres +118, Phillies -141; O/U 6.5

 

Padres: 89-73, 1-3 NLCS

Phillies: 87-75, 3-1 NLCS

NLCS Game 5 will go off Sunday afternoon.  It will be tense.  The Phillies spanked the Padres toward the end of Game 4.. In a game that was part fireworks show and part roller coaster.  It was a shocking outcome that the Padres lost 10-6 after going up 4-0 in the very first inning.  It must have been soul killing, particularly to 2 of the Padres mainstay pitchers who have not performed well in the postseason.  The Phillies on the other hand have found the groove at the plate and it seems like everyone on the roster is putting the ball over the outfield wall!

The San Diego Padres got the rug pulled out from under them in Game 4.  They opened the game amazingly by scoring 4 runs AFTER Phillies starting pitcher Bailey Falter had gotten the first two outs.  3 off of Falter and 1 more off of Falter’s reliever (first inning reliever) Connor Brogdon.  It was all set!  The Padres only had to navigate their way through a baseball game after being spotted 4 runs in the first half of the first inning!  The Padres pitcher Mike Clevenger took the mound… immediately allowing a lead off single and the first of Rhys Hoskins home runs.  It not only allowed the Phillies to immediately half the deficit… it also invited the crushed Philly crowd to rejoin the party!  And the crowd had lots to cheer for when Clevenger walked JT Realmuto and gave up an RBI double to Bryce Harper.  Clevenger left the game without having recorded a single out.  It was now 4-3… and even though the Padres finished that inning clinging to a 4-3 lead… The writing was on the wall.  Padres’ reliever after reliever would have to pitch to an amped up Philly lineup.  They held on for a while even adding a couple more runs… When Padres pitcher Sean Manea hit the mound the Phillies deluge could not be stopped.  Why the Padres didn’t stick with both Brogdon and Martinez longer will always be a mystery?  I suppose analytics?

The Philadelphia Phillies are shining in the postseason. “I believe our team is built for October, I really do,” Harper said. And he is right.  The Phillies got 2 home runs from Rhys Hoskins, one from Kyle Schwarber, and another one from JT Realmuto.  They are well on their way to becoming the first 3rd place team to reach the World Series.

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SDP: 95-76, -381 ML, 80-85-6, 48-38 on the road.  They are a rare team that performed identically on the road as at home.

PHI: 93-77, 586 ML, 85-78-7, 49-34 in home games.  They are a regular team, better at home than the road.

The San Diego Padres finished the season 13th in runs scored with 4.35 per game, 16th in batting average with .241, and 8th in OBP with .318.

The Philadelphia Phillies finished the season 7th in scoring with 4.61 runs per game, 8th in batting average with .253, and 11th in OBP with .317.

The Padres pitchers finished the season 11th in ERA with 3.81, 9th in WHIP, and their fielders finished 8th in errors with 76 on the season.  

The Phillies pitchers finished the season 18th in ERA, 14th in WHIP, and their fielders finished 3rd in errors with only 69 on the season.

Our prediction for Sunday, October 23rd is…  Phillies 7 - Padres 3

Go ahead.  Bet on the Phillies on the moneyline.  They are hitting the ball in a joyous way.  They are feeding off the energy of the home crowd.  They will reach the World Series and the Padres are rapidly becoming a nervous bunch of guys crushed by a mountain of missed opportunities and bad feeling.

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The Padres are 64-49 (-15.5 UNITS) as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.

The Padres are 34-22 (+14.3 UNITS) on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5.

The Phillies are 12-5 (+6.7 UNITS) at home when the total is 7 to 7.5.

Padres: RHP Yu Darvish, Yu is 2-1, 2.84 ERA, and 18 strikeouts in 19 innings with 1.00 WHIP in the postseason. Yu has been the Padres best and most reliable guy all season.  He will take the mound with pride and defend the Padres chance at getting another game.

Phillies: RHP Zach Wheeler, 1-1, 1.40 ERA, 17 strikeouts in 19 innings pitched. 0.52 WHIP.  Wheeler has been champing at the bit to get on the field and have some of the fun all the other Phillies have been having the last two games.  He is a top-notch 32 year old and he can taste a World Series with just 1 win.

Padres: LF Jurickson Profar, RF Juan Soto, 3B Manny Machado, DH Josh Bell, 2B Jake Cronenworth, 1B Will Myers, SS Ha-Seong Kim, CF Trent Grisham, C Austin Nola 

Castellanos, 3B Alex Bohm, SS Bryson Stott, Phillies: LF Kyle Schwarber, 1B Rhys Hoskins, C JT Realmuto, DH Bryce Harper, RF Nick 2B Jean Segura, CF Brandon Marsh

Padres: Bob “um ma ma” Melvin

Phillies: Rob “how bout them ears” Thompson

Sunny.  66*, Humidity 45%, wind 6 mph.