NLCS San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/22/2022

by James Q

NLCS San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/22/2022

Game Time: 7:45 pm ET, Saturday, October 22nd, 2022
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Where to Watch:  FOX

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Moneyline:   Padres -105, Phillies -115; O/U 8
PointsBet:  Moneyline: Padres -108, Phillies -108; O/U 8
Caesars: Moneyline: Padres -110, Phillies -110; O/U 8

Season Record

Padres: 89-73, 1-2 NLCS
Phillies: 87-75, 2-1 NLCS

NLCS Game 4 will go off Saturday Night. The Game 3 results are in and the Padres have again fell a game behind in the NLCS with a 4-2 loss. The result was predicted here in this column… but Philly fans still had the time of their lives.  The game, played in Philadelphia, featured a first pitch by Actor Miles Teller and a cameo appearance by football star Jason Kelce… he hugged the Philly Phanatic and drew Cheers from the Philly faithfull as he chugged a can of beer!  That sure was a lot of emotion.  That first night emotion may play right into the Padres hands during Game 4.  Unless of course Eagles QB Jalen Hurts makes a surprise cameo… the Phillies may have blown their emotional wad.

The San Diego Padres lost Game 3… as once again their offense went dry.  They scored no runs until 1 run in the fourth inning and 1 run in the 5th inning… and then no runs the rest of the night.  They finished with 7 hits and lots of strikeouts.  They need a win here in Philly or the will not again see Petco Park in San Diego. The reason we recommended a Padres loss in Game 3 was the starting pitcher, Joe Musgrove. He has not been a high flier this season… he gave up 1 run in the first and 2 more in the crucial 4th inning to put the Padres on their heels and chasing pitches all night.  

The Phillies won game 3 in a tour de force performance of enjoying home field advantage. It helped a lot that pitcher Ranger Suarez came ready to play…. And it of course helped that the bullpen held the Padres scoreless in the last 4 innings.  Phillies second baseman Jean Segura was the hero of the night even after a fielding error and being picked off at FIRST while a baserunner.  He heard boos. Then he launched one over the outfield wall.. And those boos turned to cheers. And the Phillies extended their lead never to sacrifice it.  “It’s just the way we handle the pressure in Dominican Republic.” Segura said after the game.

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San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Review and Analysis

Recent Form  

SDP: 95-76, -381 ML, 80-85-6, 48-38 on the road.  They are a rare team that performed identically on the road as at home.

PHI: 93-77, 586 ML, 85-78-7, 49-34 in home games.  They are the regular team, better at home than the road.

Offensive Analysis

The San Diego Padres finished the season 13th in runs scored with 4.35 per game, 16th in batting average with .241, and 8th in OBP with .318.

The Philadelphia Phillies finished the season 7th in scoring with 4.61 runs per game, 8th in batting average with .253, and 11th in OBP with .317.

Defensive Analysis

The Padres pitchers finished the season 11th in ERA with 3.81, 9th in WHIP, and their fielders finished 8th in errors with 76 on the season.  

The Phillies pitchers finished the season 18th in ERA, 14th in WHIP, and their fielders finished 3rd in errors with only 69 on the season.

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, October 22nd is…   Padres 6 - Phillies 2

Just like in Game 2… The Padres backs are against the wall.  They will respond with offense from Machado, Soto, and Kim… perhaps even a Cronenworth homer?... Simply said.. Bet on the Padres, on the moneyline, in Game 4.

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MLB Betting Trends

The Padres are 64-49 (-15.5 UNITS) as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.
The Padres are 34-22 (+14.3 UNITS) on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5.
The Phillies are 12-5 (+6.7 UNITS) at home when the total is 7 to 7.5.

Key Injuries 

Players to Watch 

Padres: RHP Mike Clevinger.  Mike is the guy who dropped Game 1 of the NLCS for the Padres.  He is a quality pitcher who had a rotten night.  Game 4 is his redemption song.

Phillies: LHP Bailey Falter.  The Phillies have a 1 game lead and 2 home games to go… Of course they put 25 year old Baliey Falter.  He has a lousy ERA and WHIP… 4.36 & 1.21 on the season.  This isn’t a sincere start.  They are hoping to extend the rest time of the top dogs… and if they get the win… that would just be cream on top.

Starting Lineups

Padres: LF Jurickson Profar, RF Juan Soto, 3B Manny Machado, DH Josh Bell, 2B Jake Cronenworth, 1B Will Myers, SS Ha-Seong Kim, CF Trent Grisham, C Austin Nola 

Castellanos, 3B Alex Bohm, SS Bryson Stott, Phillies: LF Kyle Schwarber, 1B Rhys Hoskins, C JT Realmuto, DH Bryce Harper, RF Nick 2B Jean Segura, CF Brandon Marsh


Padres: Bob “um ma ma” Melvin
Phillies: Rob “how bout them ears” Thompson

Weather Forecast 

Sunny.  66*, Humidity 45%, wind 6 mph.      

James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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