NHL Futures: Western Conference up for grabs as All-Star break nears

by Chuck Sommers

Friday, Jan 27, 2023
The first half of the NHL season can usually tell us a lot.

Take the Boston Bruins, for example. They're likely going to break the Tampa Bay Lightning's record for points in a season and cruise to a Presidents' Trophy victory. The Tampa Bay Lightning are going to be there again, and the Toronto Maple Leafs are likely setting themselves up for another first-round exit. There's also Carolina and the Rangers making a case.

That's five teams (joke's on Toronto, I know!) that could make a legitimate case to win the Stanley Cup, and that's all from the Eastern Conference. The depth and firepower in these teams is unmatched.

Then you get to the Western Conference, and suddenly it's not as black-and-white.

I look at the Western Conference right now and don't see one team worthy of making it into the Stanley Cup Final. Not one team can lay a claim that it can legitimately win because there are glaring weaknesses around each contender.

The West is about as wide open as anyone could've ever asked for, and when playoff time rolls around, it's going to be a smorgasbord of ridiculousness the likes of which we've never seen.

Here's a look at where I think the West stacks up with the All-Star break on the horizon, in no particular order. All standings are reflective as of Thursday and odds are courtesy of BetMGM.

Dallas Stars -- 65 points (.650 points percentage), +650


It's been a pleasant first year for Pete DeBoer. After being fired by the Vegas Golden Knights in May, the Stars swooped in and DeBoer has his group at the top of the standings for a couple of reasons.

For one, Jason Robertson has been no fluke. After a 40-goal season last year, Robertson has 66 points through 50 games and is at 33 goals near the halfway mark. He's absolutely hitting 50, maybe even 60.

Robertson's emergence has come at a great time for the Dallas organization. In a time where it seemed like Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin were on their last legs carrying the franchise, this third-year kid is already exceeding expectations, and then some.

By the way, Benn (43 points) and Seguin (34) are absolutely killing it during their renaissance seasons.

The other is Jake Oettinger. If not for Linus Ullmark stopping everything that moves in Boston, Oettinger would be the favorite for the Vezina Trophy.

Oettinger's 37 games played are tied for the most in the league this season, and only Connor Hellebuyck (23) has more wins in that lump than Oettinger (21).

Those two have got the Stars in prime position, and it's no wonder to see why. But if they could add one or two more defensemen for a shutdown role, or even an offensive-minded defenseman, they'd be in great shape.

Seattle Kraken -- 61 points (.649 points percentage), +1200


Truly incredible what the second-year franchise has done this year. Seattle has climbed to the top of the Pacific Division and has a legit chance of hosting a playoff series or two.

The Kraken haven't gotten elite scoring, but they have balance. Andre Burakovsky leads them with 39 points, followed by 37 from Jordan Eberle and 36 from Calder Trophy frontrunner Matty Beniers. Even Jared McCann has 23 goals this season.

But Seattle's biggest surprise has been goaltending and the rebirth of Martin Jones. The veteran goalie has turned back the clock with 23 wins this season, near the top of the league. The other numbers (.895 SV%, 2.78 GAA) aren't great, but he's had a number of great performances that have shocked many.

And that's the only question left staring the Kraken in the face. Is Jones the answer? Philipp Grubauer isn't getting it done, and Joey Daccord is too young. Do the Kraken get a goalie on the trade market that can be counted on in the playoffs? That's where the experience and the balance have to be relied on all year to get it done. I'm curious if they can trust Jones to get it done.

Winnipeg Jets -- 63 points (.643 points percentage), +1100


Much like what's happening in Dallas, it's been refreshing to see what Rick Bowness has done in Winnipeg.

Kyle Connor and Pierre-Luc Dubois have turned into an incredible 1-2 tandem down the middle. Mark Schiefele has 29 goals. Connor Hellebuyck looks like an elite goalie once again.

The biggest surprise? 51-point scorer Josh Morrissey. The defenseman, if not for Erik Karlsson, would likely be leading the Norris Trophy race right now.

Winnipeg looks like a complete team that can handle the playoff grind. But they too could use another defenseman to bring the physicality. They have a lot o finesse guys like Morrissey, Neal Pionk and Nate Schmidt. Get one more guy who can lay the big hits, anything to the equivalent of Dustin Byfuglien, and that should cap what Winnipeg needs for a deep run.

Vegas Golden Knights -- 61 points (.622 points percentage), +375


Still one of the overwhelming betting favorite, the Golden Knights have everything they need. Elite forwards, elite defensemen, and a good, young goalie that can win them games in the playoffs.

Logan Thompson has cooled off from his torrid start to begin the year, but his performance in New Jersey the other night is a clear indication that he can deliver against big-time opponents.

The only thing stopping the Golden Knights, which stopped them last year, is health, particularly the health of captain Mark Stone. He's missed the last couple of weeks with a back-related injury after recovering from back surgery in the offseason. He's out through the All-Star break. Where he is after that remains to be seen.

Stone was by far the MVP of the team before he went down, and he got the best of Jack Eichel when they played together. If Vegas doesn't get him back, it's going to be a long second half.

Los Angeles Kings -- 60 points (.600 points percentage), +1200


Much like Seattle, the biggest concern for the Kings is their goaltending.

They certainly have the pieces to contend, especially after the addition of Kevin Fiala. The center tandem of Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault is one of the best defensive center groups in the league. They're going to get secondary scoring in the playoffs and a healthy Drew Doughty will actually pay off.

But whether it's Jonathan Quick or Pheonix Copley, the Kings need help in net. The numbers are shoddy and the Kings aren't built to win a track meet. They need help at the back end.

Colorado Avalanche -- 55 points (.598 points percentage),  +275


You never count out the champs until they are counted out. I've said that about Tampa Bay the last three years, and the same rings true for the Avs.

It's been an injury-riddled season in Colorado's title defense, but they're still dangerous and appear to have turned a corner as of late. Mikko Rantanen is also charging for a 50-goal season, and Nathan MacKinnon might get 80 assists at this rate if he stays healthy. Cale Makar is also Cale Makar, though people think he's fallen off.

But the Avalanche got by with having Darcy Kuemper, an established goalie, in net to win. Now it's Alex Georgiev, who was not the best in New York and is subpar at best in Colorado. If it comes down to a team that can play well on the counter-attack, Colorado's defense is going to be in trouble.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

© 2024 Al McMordie's BigAl.com. All Rights Reserved.