NFL Through 3 Weeks: What’s Real & What’s Fake?

With every NFL team having now played three games, I thought it would be a good time to check in on what’s real and what’s fake. Sometimes wins and losses don’t tell the full story. Specifically, in this article, I will look at the 3-0 teams to see if they are truly as good as their undefeated records indicate. Conversely, we’ll look at the 0-3 teams and if things will continue to be dire moving forward.

Buffalo (For Real) - The Bills are not only 3-0 SU but also 3-0 ATS. They defeated the Chargers 24-16 last week despite committing five turnovers. It was the Bills’ first win when committing at least five turnovers since 1997. The eight-point margin of victory was the largest by any team that committed five turnovers in a game in the last 20 seasons. There’s an argument that the Bills could be 1-2 as most teams would have lost to the Chargers, plus Josh Allen was lucky to avoid an interception before throwing the game-winning TD in Week 1 vs. Houston. But in Allen we trust and this offense is the real deal. The defense, which allowed 31 points each of the first two games, remains a concern. This week, Buffalo has a chance to go up three games on reigning AFC East Champs New England. 

Kansas City (For Real) - The Chiefs largely played with their food in Sunday’s 24-10 win over the Dolphins. There was a phantom roughing the passer call that went their way in the second half (of course) and that drive ended up with points when it should have been a situation where they punted the ball deep in their own territory. The real story on offense has not been the return of Patrick Mahomes, although that obviously is a big deal, but Kenneth Walker III in the run game. KW3 has 442 total yards through three games, 360 of it rushing. He forced 12 missed tackles against Miami. As expected, a healthy Chiefs team looks likely to bounce back from last year’s rare playoff miss. 

Las Vegas (About To Find Out!) - The Raiders host the Chiefs this Sunday in a battle of 3-0 AFC West teams. The Silver and Black will be the underdogs, deservedly so, but QB Kirk Cousins seems reborn under the tutelage of 1st year HC Klint Kubiak. Cousins has thrown three touchdown passes in each of the first three games as this team has already matched its number of wins from last year! TE Brock Bowers returned last week, after missing the first two games, and led all receivers with 10 catches for 116 yards. It was a very impressive come from behind effort in New Orleans. Although, it should be pointed out the Raiders’ defense forced a turnover on each of the Saints’ final four drives. Mahomes and company will not be that charitable. Still, even if the Raiders lose this week, they can take solace in the fact that 75% of teams that start 3-0 make the playoffs. 

Minnesota (Fake) - The Vikings may very well make the playoffs, and even win a very tough NFC North. But they’ve been extremely fortunate the first three weeks. Not many could have predicted they’d be the division favorite after newly acquired QB Kyler Murray went down early in Week 1. Murray did return for Sunday’s win in Tampa. But Kevin O’Connnel’s offense needs work. It was almost inexplicable that the Vikings scored 39 points in Week 1, averaging just 3.9 yards per play. After a 9-3 win in Chicago in Week 2, that was more about the Bears losing Caleb Williams, the Vikings offense never reached the red zone against Tampa Bay! Yet they still scored 23 points! A punt return for TD was the difference. The offense has yet to gain 250 total yards in any of the three games! Can the defense and special teams continue to prop up the Vikings? 

San Francisco (For Real) - Although be aware that the Niners’ annual injury bug is starting to take hold. WR Mike Evans, LT Trent Williams and LB Dre Greenlaw all exited the 36-30 win over Arizona with injuries. None are expected to miss significant time, but it’s worth monitoring as DE Nick Bosa has already been ruled out for this week’s game vs. Denver. Injuries aside, the 49ers have arguably looked like the league’s most complete team through three weeks. The argument could be made that it helps facing both Miami and Arizona, the two teams projected for the lowest win totals in the league. 

Miami (Real) - Coming into the season, we all knew the Dolphins wouldn’t be good. Not even a somewhat competitive effort against the Chiefs changes that mindset. RB De’Von Achane has been lost for the season to an ACL injury. 

Tennessee (Real) - Another team that, as expected, is bad. Weather was a built-in excuse, but the offense managed only 54 yards and one first down in the first half against the Giants. The most depressing thing here is that last year’s #1 overall draft choice, QB Cam Ward, might not be any good. This on the heels of previously wasting a draft pick on Will Levis. 

Houston (Fake) - The Texans are better than their 0-3 record as two of the losses were decided in the final two minutes and the other game (Cincinnati) saw them finish +107 in total yards. But they have a head coach who isn’t a very good in-game decision maker and QB CJ Stroud just isn’t improving. Most concerning of all is that the defense has been nowhere near as dominant as it was last season. There are some winnable upcoming games against the Titans, Giants, Chargers and Browns. So Houston should be back over .500 by midseason. They did start 0-3 last year and made the playoffs. 

LA Chargers (Real) - Put a fork in this team. Buffalo basically tried handing the Chargers their first win of the season. Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert refused to take it. It’s almost unfathomable to finish +4 in turnovers and not win. The offense, under the direction of Mike McDaniel, looks awful. The upcoming schedule does the Chargers no favors. Their next six games are against: Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, the Rams, Houston and Baltimore. While unlikely, there’s a chance the Chargers could start 0-9. They likely won’t be favored in any of those upcoming games. 

Tampa Bay (Real) - The Bucs are 0-3 and couldn’t protect Baker Mayfield, who is now hurt. They’ve failed to cover the spread in 12 consecutive games, going back to last year, which is a NFL record. Todd Bowles could be the first head coach to be fired this season. Now the Bucs have been pretty unlucky with all three losses coming by seven points or less. But, even in the always weak NFC South, this won’t be a playoff team.