by Al McMordie
Saturday, Sep 12, 2026The NFL's first week of the season is upon us. I often choose to pass in Week 1. Someone very wise once wrote, "Why eat hamburger when there's steak at the end of the table?" And that's my philosophy with regard to the start of an NFL season. I prefer to let games come to me rather than force plays without much to go on. Still, sports gambling is, for most, entertainment. And bettors aren't likely to wait for Week 2 when there are games to be played this weekend. With that in mind, let's take a look at a good angle to handicap the first week of the season.
The obvious starting point for most bettors is to look back to how teams did the previous season. Here are last year's records (with Playoff teams noted by an asterisk):
*Patriots 14-3
*Broncos 14-3
*Seahawks 14-3
*Jaguars 13-4
*Bills 12-5
*Texans 12-5
*Rams 12-5
*49ers 12-5
*Chargers 11-6
*Eagles 11-6
*Bears 11-6
*Steelers 10-7
*Packers 9-7-1
Vikings 9-8
Lions 9-8
*Panthers 8-9
Ravens 8-9
Colts 8-9
Buccaneers 8-9
Falcons 8-9
Cowboys 7-9-1
Dolphins 7-10
Chiefs 6-11
Saints 6-11
Bengals 6-11
Browns 5-12
Commanders 5-12
Giants 4-13
Raiders 3-14
Titans 3-14
Jets 3-14
Cardinals 3-14
The knee-jerk reaction for many bettors is to play on teams in Week 1 that made the Playoffs the previous season and/or owned a winning record, and go against teams that had poor W/L records the previous season. Suffice it to say, that's generally the wrong move. For our NFL System of the Week, we're going to play in Week 1 on teams with losing records the previous season against opponents with winning records. Since 1994, our teams with losing records have gone 108-69-4 ATS (61.0%) in Week 1 vs. foes that won the previous year! Last season, this angle went 5-3 ATS. This season, there are seven plays (all lines courtesy of Circa):
Browns +8.5 vs Jaguars
Falcons +6.5 vs Steelers
Panthers +3 vs Bears
Saints +7 vs Lions
Cardinals +8.5 vs Chargers
Commanders +5.5 vs Eagles
Chiefs -2.5 vs Broncos
The best thing about this NFL system is its simplicity. It doesn't matter if a team is at home (55-36-3 ATS) or on the road (53-33-1 ATS); or if it is favored (15-9-2 ATS) or an underdog/pk (93-60-2 ATS). It just wins. So, consider putting some of these losing teams from 2025 on your card this weekend.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
The obvious starting point for most bettors is to look back to how teams did the previous season. Here are last year's records (with Playoff teams noted by an asterisk):
*Patriots 14-3
*Broncos 14-3
*Seahawks 14-3
*Jaguars 13-4
*Bills 12-5
*Texans 12-5
*Rams 12-5
*49ers 12-5
*Chargers 11-6
*Eagles 11-6
*Bears 11-6
*Steelers 10-7
*Packers 9-7-1
Vikings 9-8
Lions 9-8
*Panthers 8-9
Ravens 8-9
Colts 8-9
Buccaneers 8-9
Falcons 8-9
Cowboys 7-9-1
Dolphins 7-10
Chiefs 6-11
Saints 6-11
Bengals 6-11
Browns 5-12
Commanders 5-12
Giants 4-13
Raiders 3-14
Titans 3-14
Jets 3-14
Cardinals 3-14
The knee-jerk reaction for many bettors is to play on teams in Week 1 that made the Playoffs the previous season and/or owned a winning record, and go against teams that had poor W/L records the previous season. Suffice it to say, that's generally the wrong move. For our NFL System of the Week, we're going to play in Week 1 on teams with losing records the previous season against opponents with winning records. Since 1994, our teams with losing records have gone 108-69-4 ATS (61.0%) in Week 1 vs. foes that won the previous year! Last season, this angle went 5-3 ATS. This season, there are seven plays (all lines courtesy of Circa):
Browns +8.5 vs Jaguars
Falcons +6.5 vs Steelers
Panthers +3 vs Bears
Saints +7 vs Lions
Cardinals +8.5 vs Chargers
Commanders +5.5 vs Eagles
Chiefs -2.5 vs Broncos
The best thing about this NFL system is its simplicity. It doesn't matter if a team is at home (55-36-3 ATS) or on the road (53-33-1 ATS); or if it is favored (15-9-2 ATS) or an underdog/pk (93-60-2 ATS). It just wins. So, consider putting some of these losing teams from 2025 on your card this weekend.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
