by ASA, Inc.
Trevor Lawrence Over 3,975.5 Yards
T-Law finished 2022 with 4,113 yards and led the Jags to a miraculous playoff comeback against the Chargers. Everything points up for the Jags young star and the addition of Calvin Ridley to the lineup cannot be understated. Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Zay Jones make up the best group of weapons that Lawrence has played with. Jacksonville will still need to rely heavily on the pass with a similar amount of negative scripts coming once again in 2023. Individual development along with the addition of Ridley should be enough to allow Lawrence to meet or surpass his 2022 total.
Justin Fields Over 2775.5 Yards
For a NFL starting QB who is on the borderline of a quality player, this number is simply too low. Breaking it down over 17 games, Fields needs to throw for an average of 164 ypg. Defenses will key on Fields' running ability, giving him ample opportunity to feed his newly acquired WR1 in DJ Moore. Similar to Ridley, Moore steps into the top spot in the offense. Players like AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill made comparable moves last season and had great success. The Bears’ QB was horrendous throwing the football last season, and even if he is still bad this year, pure talent and volume can get him to his yardage prop.
Bijan Robinson Over 1,075.5 Yards
Atlanta’s number 8 overall selection in the 2023 Draft may be the best RB talent since Saquan Barkley in 2018. The Falcons run the ball more than any other team and obviously will feature Robinson in a role that saw Tyler Allgeier surpass 1000 yards in 2022. Allgier is still there to take some work, but Robinson is superior in every facet. Rookie running backs selected top 10 in the draft historically have seen crazy volume in their early years. The Falcons have one of the weakest schedules in the league, hopefully allowing for more positive game scripts than last season.
Quentin Johnston Over 600.5 Yards
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are still the alpha dogs in Los Angeles, at least when they are healthy. Johnston should slide right into Josh Palmer’s old role that will start as a WR3 but pick up WR2 duties when one of the veterans gets banged up. A WR2 role in an elite offense with Justin Herbert makes a perfect storm for yet another young rookie talent to explode onto the scene. Only needing to average 36 ypg over 17 games, it may take some time for Johnston to get going, but he eventually will establish himself as a “go to” target for Herbert for years to come. Johnston feels like a young DeAndre Hopkins before he overtook Andre Johnson.