NFL Season-Opening Division Dilemma

Getting out of the gate in the NFL is never easy.  Teams in the league and their corresponding talent levels change on an annual basis and it takes a few games to see if this year’s squad can get after it or not.

 

Season openers can be really tricky, too.  Several NFL teams don’t show very much in the preseason and tend to flip the switch when the contests count for real.  Since everyone is highly motivated in their first regular season battle, you’ll find that division wars carry additional meaning.  Old rivalries never die, and teams locked into division matchups in openers can provide us with some really nice investment opportunities.

 

With the help of my NFL football database, the same one that was featured in the December 13th, 2010, issue of the ESPN Insider magazine, I’ve been able to isolate and profit from a number of incredible technical situations.  My “NFL Season Opening Division Dilemma” system is one that has made my clients and I a great deal of money over the years.  It kind of goes against the grain.  The result I expected was the opposite of what really transpired.  Take a peek at this beauty:

 

Since 1981, PLAY AGAINST any season opening home favorite priced competitively at -5 or less provided they were a losing team a year ago (won/loss percentage less than .500) if their opponent owned a team won/loss percentage less than .560 last season.

 42 Year ATS Record = 44-25-1 ATS for 63.8 percent

This Week’s PLAY ON Teams  = CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, GREEN BAY, and LAS VEGAS

 Surprisingly, this short, hungry home favorite that was a stone-cold loser a season ago just isn’t ready to lay a small number into an opposing team that is starved for respect as well.  There is one special tightener that can be added to this technical situation that really makes it pop.  If our “play against” side is matched up against a division foe, this game one angle crashes to a horrible 4-16 ATS.  The Falcons, Bears, and Broncos are locked into this negative wagering parameter.

 

Good luck with the Panthers, Packers, and Raiders on Opening Day!