NFL Preseason Totals System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Friday, Aug 18, 2023
It's the second week of the NFL Preseason and, as always, some teams are looking to make amends for poor showings in Week 1, while others are looking to build on their momentum after a great game.

One of the things I like to do in the Preseason is look for certain teams to bounce back off bad offensive games.  And, with respect to Over/Unders, I really like playing games where BOTH teams have struggled offensively.  Not surprisingly, my mindset is to look for a counter-intuitive result, and for such games to go OVER the total.

I've run the numbers through my trusty database, and use the following Preseason angle:

Play on the OVER in NFL Preseason games where one team averages less than 10 points on offense, while its opponent averages less than 19.  Since 1996, these Preseason games have clocked in at a 58.8 percent rate.

This week, there are 2 Preseason plays:  Carolina/NY Giants Over 38 and San Francisco/Denver Over 40.  

And there's one tightener we can use to improve our win percentage further.  When the Over/Under line is less than 40, then our angle zooms to 45-25 OVER (64.2%).

Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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