The 2023 NFL Preseason will kick off again in Canton, Ohio this season when the New York Jets take on the Cleveland Browns.
The Browns are currently a 2-point favorite, with the over/under set at 33 points (at Circa Sportsbook).
Let's take a look at the point spread history of the Hall of Fame Game since 1983.
There have been 37 games played, with one of the 37 (Green Bay vs. Kansas City, in 2003) shortened by weather, so all wagers on that game were nullified. In three seasons, the Hall of Fame Game wasn't played. In 2011, the game was canceled due to an NFL lockout. In 2016, the field was in poor condition due to weather. And, of course, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic forced the game to not be played.
Thus, there have been 36 NFL Hall of Fame Games since 1983 with point spread results attached to them. And we find that the favorites have gone 19-13-3 ATS. The smaller favorites have tended to do much better than the bigger favorites. When the line was -1 to -2.5, the favorite went 13-6-1 ATS. But when the line was -3 (or more), the favorite has gone 6-7-2 ATS.
Not all games had over/under lines. The oddsmakers started posting O/U lines for the 1996 game. Twelve of the 23 games have gone under the total while 11 have gone over the total. Interestingly, when the O/U line has been less than 33 points, the Overs have gone 5-1, while the Unders have gone 6-1 when the posted total was greater than 35 points.
One other thing to note: teams that were undefeated the previous preseason have gone 2-3 ATS in the Hall of Fame Game. And teams that had a winning record the previous preseason (as well as a better preseason record than their opponent) have gone 6-12-1 ATS. And teams that had a losing record the previous preseason (as well as a worse preseason record than their opponent) have gone 11-8 ATS. Finally, teams with a worse preseason record the previous preseason than their opponent have gone 15-9-1 ATS. (Last season, the Jets were 3-0 SU, while the Browns were 1-2 SU.)
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Good luck, as always...Al McMordie