NFL: Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Picks 11/06/2022

 

Game Time:  4:25 PM ET, Sunday, November 6th, 2022

Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, Florida

Where to Watch:  CBS

FanDuel: point spread: Bucs -3; O/U 42.5

DraftKings:  Bucs -3; O/U 42.5

Caesars:  Bucs -3; O/U 42.5

Rams: 3-4, 3rd place NFC West

Buccaneers: 3-5, 2nd place NFC South.

An NFC matchup between the last two Super Bowl winning teams, both have quarterbacks with amazing career passing numbers, in fact one has the GOAT.  However both teams enter this game in their LAST STAND for any chance at success this season.  The Los Angeles Rams had to make some tough choices after winning the last Super Bowl… They had to give raises to some key players while trying to replace some key positions.  The resulting subtraction to the roster… and a miss on WR Allen Robinson II, and an odd, lingering elbow injury to QB Matthew Stafford has rendered the Rams uncompetitive.  They try… They still have 3-4 of the NFL’s best players on any roster… but they keep coming out of games beaten and wondering what to do next.  The Buccaneers QB Tom Brady is having a very bad season when measured against his standards. The tabloid press has had a field day with his personal life, Tom has eschewed his 2 decade strong uncompromising work ethic in favor of breaks and days off, criticism is hitting him from places it never has before.  Tom may wish he had simply stayed retired when he retired 4 months ago… but then again he may love football to the point that he will try and play forever.  Both QBs and teams know that this is it.  If they come out of this game with a loss?... The season will be mostly out of reach at the halfway point.  The mountain they will have to climb to turn things around after a loss will be just too big.  Both teams can’t win… so one is guaranteed a bad Monday morning coupled with the GM preparing for the summer rebuild by wanting to evaluate every player on the roster.

The Los Angeles Rams have dismal offensive numbers.  They almost have too many wins considering how bad the offensive numbers are… 28th in scoring?... From the Super Bowl Champs?... 2nd to last in rushing yards from Head Coach Sean McVay?.  It is bad in Los Angeles.  The team fell out of love with RB Cam Akers who actually took last week off as he was waiting for the trade that the team could not find.  The team specifically fell out of love with him when he kept fumbling the ball… that isn’t a player most other teams will want to trade for.  WR Van Jefferson and WR Cooper Kupp have been dinged with injury… though they both might play this week… and WR Allen Robinson II was simply a bad signing at 30 million guaranteed dollars over a few years.  That money should have been spent on replacing LT Andrew Whitworth who retired after a lengthy amazing career and a Super Bowl ring finish.  QB Matthew Stafford has only 1763 passing yards on the season… less than Geno Smith, or Kyler Murray… but to be fair the Rams are a game behind… so Matt Stafford may just be equal to Geno Smith or Kyler Murray… Not good news.  DT Aaron Donald is still GREAT.  You can’t take that away from him… but teams seem much more able to hit him with double teams as his defensive line compatriots are not as good as in years past.  The Rams lost their last game 31-14 against the San Francisco 49ers… as the 49ers have had the Rams number in regular season games dating back 7 games (the Rams got the NIners in the playoffs however… leading to a Super Bowl ring).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also have woeful rushing yards numbers… in fact the Bucs are the ONLY team worse than the Rams in rushing.  QB Tom Brady does lead the 5th best passing game in the NFL… but it is simply not translating into wins. He has only had more than 1 passing touchdown in 1 game and that was 3 passing touchdowns when they played the Chiefs… and that was a 41-31 loss.  The Bucs are on a 3-game losing streak.  The frustration is showing.  The question marks are popping up as Tampa lost to the Carolina Panthers 21-3 just the game before last.  Tampa’s defense is OK, but they have an obvious weakness and that is against the run… where they are 24th in the league while allowing 132.4 rushing yards per game.  As a betting option the Bucs have been TERRIBLE… They are 2-6 ATS with no wins ATS in 6 straight games.  A sad reality for gamblers is that the Bucs have been favored in all 8 of their games this season… some people sadly bet with Tom Brady like a religion, feeling that he can win everything… since he almost always has… Those people are going broke.

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RECENT FORM

LAR: 3-4, 2-5 ATS, 2-5 O/U, 1-1 on the road.

TBB: 3-5, 2-6 ATS, 2-6 O/U, 1-3 in home games.

 

The Rams are 28th in scoring with 16.9 per game, 31st in total yards with 297.4 yards per game, 15th in passing yards with 229 per game, ands 31st in rushing yards with 68.4 yards per game.

The Buccaneers are 25th in scoring with 18.2 points per game, 18th in total yards with 332.9 per game, 5th in 271 passing yards, and 32nd in rushing yards with 61.9 per game.

The Rams defense is 5th in defending total yards with only 310.9 allowed per game, 11th in defending passing yards with 205.7 allowed per game, 7th in defending rushing yards with 105.1 per game, 17th in total points with 22.4 allowed per game.  Not w inning formula but the Rams defense is still capable.

The Bucs defense is 11th in defending total yards with 326.4 per game, 6th in defending passing yards with 194 allowed per game, 24th in defending rushing yards with 132.4 per game, and 6th in defending points with 18.9 allowed per game.  The Bucs defense is also mostly capable.  Their weakness against the run won’t be a weakness against the Rams who can’t run.

Our prediction for Sunday, November 6th is… Rams 21 - Bucs 18

 

Bet on the Rams.  The Bucs are going through something more awful than what the Rams are going through.  The Rams can rebuild quickly once this season is over… The Bucs will have to find someone to play quarterback… That might be a taller order.  In the present the Rams defense will overwhelm the disorganized Bucs offense.  It will also be Aaron Donald's last shot at sacks on Tom Brady.

 

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The Rams are 2-0 ATS versus the Bucs at Tampa Bay the last 3 seasons.

The Rams are 7-4 ATS at Tampa Bay since 1992.

The Rams are 3-0 ATS against Tampa Bay the last 3 seasons overall.

The Bucs are 2-11 O/U against teams with a losing record the last 3 seasons.

Rams: QB Matthew Stafford, RB Ronnie Rivers, WR Allen Robinson II, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Van Jefferson, TE Tyler Higbee, LT Alaric Jackson, LG Bobby Evans, C Brian Allen, RG Oday Aboushi, RT Rob Havenstein

Bucs: QB Tom Brady, RB Leonard Fournette, WR Julio Jones, WR Mike Evans, TE Ko Kieft, TE Cade Otton, LT Donovan Smith, LG Nick Leverett, C Robert Hainsey, RG Shaq Mason, RT Tristan Wirfs

Scattered showers.  86*, humidity 73%, Wind 11 mph.