NFL: Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Previews and Picks 10/23/2022

 

Game Time:  4:25 PM ET, Sunday, October 23rd, 2022

Venue:  Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Where to Watch:  FOX

FanDuel: point spread: Chiefs -3; 48.5 O/U

DraftKings: Chiefs -3; 48.5 O/U

Caesars: Chiefs -3; 48.5 O/U

 

Chiefs: 4-2, 1st place AFC West

49ers: 3-3, 1st place, NFC West

An inter conference matchup of teams with BIG expectations. The Kansas City Chiefs are first in the AFC West, but they just lost the matchup of the year against the Buffalo Bills.  They will spend the rest of the season earning the spot to play those guys again.  The San Francisco 49ers lead their division, but have an equally bad record as the much maligned Green Bay Packers.  The 49ers could go either way.  The Chiefs are still the cream of the crop… These two teams are only separated by 1 game.  It should be tense but provide a Great Betting Opportunity.  Let’s check the numbers.

The Kansas City Chiefs lost the game of the year to the Buffalo Bills 24-20 last week.  It was a close call that brought out all the stops… but the Chiefs fell short.  It was wildly encouraging after barely beating the lowly Vegas Raiders 30-29 the week before.  But still a loss to your chief rival is a tough pill to swallow.  The offense for the Chiefs is great!  #1 in points scored.. The defense for the Chiefs could use some work… specifically in these big matchups. The Chiefs like the rest of us are enamored with QB Patrick Mahomes and his abilities in the passing game… but what they could really use is 5-10% more rushes.  Not because they want to be a rushing team, but because we all know they are passing on every down.  If they could only insert RB Clyde Edwards Helarie as more than a decoy for the passing game… opposing defenses would have to start guessing which can only lead to good things.

The San Francisco 49ers had an odd quarterback drama this season that does not need to be rehashed.  Simply put: their starter from last season Jimmy G is now their starter for this season… which was detoured for an offseason. He has the same record as Aaron Rodgers so far this season and is scoring 3 points more per game.  He has the amazing advantage of being backed by the toughest defense in the NFL… In the top defensive categories the 49ers are 1st, 2nd, 2nd, and 2nd… That is awesome.  Especially since their best defensive player DL Nick Bosa has been sidelined with a groin injury all season.  He may return this week.  Their best defensive guy may be returning to the best defensive squad!  That should leave Jimmy G in a place where he can simply play football.

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RECENT FORM

KC: 4-2, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U, 2-1 in road games.

SF: 3-3, 3-3 ATS, 1-5 O/U, 2-0 in home games.

 

The Kansas City Chiefs came out of Week 6 1st in scoring with 29.8 points per game, 5th in total yards with 382.3 per game, 4th in passing yards with 275.8 yards per game, and 20th in rushing yards with 106.5 per game.

The San Francisco 49ers came out of Week 6 19th in points scored with 20.3 points per game, 17th in total yards with 340.2 per game, 22nd in passing yards with 216.2 per game, and 12th in rushing yards with 124 per game.  These numbers are askew since they include a bad opening game under Trey Lance and a bad opening quarter under Trey Lantz in Game 2.  It doesn’t sound like much… but think back to those classes where they dropped the lowest grade before tallying your grade in school,... That is exactly how you should look at these numbers.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense came out of Week 6 20th in defense of total yards with 356.5 per game, 27th in passing yards defense with 266 per game, 4th in rushing defense with 90.5 yards per game, and 25th in defense of points with 24.8 per game.  

The 49ers defense are killing the game… They are 1st in defense of total yards with 255.8 per game, 2nd in defense of passing yards with 168.3 per game, 2nd in defense of rushing yards with 87.5 per game, and 2nd in defense of total points scored with 14.8 per game.  Just as you did for the offense you have to subtract the defense's best day against the Chicago Bears in the opening game. You get slightly less impressive numbers but still pretty good.

Our prediction for Sunday, October 23rd is… Chiefs 27 - 49ers 20

The Chiefs will win and cover the spread.  Yes the 49ers have a great defense, but unless he is getting scored against at a real good clip… Mahomes can be the difference.  

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Kansas City is 8-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 the last 3 seasons.

Kansas City is 23-10 ATS against NFC West opponents since 1992.

The 49ers are 10-4 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.

Chiefs: DT T Warton Out ** OL L Niang Out ** TE B Bell Out 

49ers: CB E Moseley Out ** DB J Ward Out ** QB T Lance Out ** 

 

Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Clyde Edwards Helaire, WR Juju Smith Schuster, WR Marquez Valdes Scantling, TE Noah Grey, TE Travis Kelce, LT Orlando Brown Jr, LG Joe Thuney, C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, RT Andrew Wylie

49ers: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, REB Jeff Wilson Jr, FB Kyle Juszczyck, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, LT Jaylon Moore, LG Aaron Banks, C Jake Brendel, RG Spencer Buford, RT Mike McGlinchey

 

Sunny, 68*, Humidity 44%, wind 13 mph.