NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars VS Kansas City Chiefs Prediction and Picks 11/13/2022

Game Time:  1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 13th, 2022

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

Where to Watch:  CBS

FanDuel: point spread: Chiefs -9.5; O/U 50.5

DraftKings:  Chiefs -9.5; O/U 50.5

Caesars:  Chiefs -9.5; O/U 50.5

Jaguars: 3-6, 3rd place AFC South

Chiefs: 6-2, 1st place AFC West

An AFC battle between the bad and the good.  The underdogs and the favorites.  The rudderless and the rudderful?  Anyway the point spread is big.  9.5 points.  The Jacksonville Jaguars have been a bad team for many years.  They had the privilege of drafting QB Trevor Lawrence with the #1 pick in the 2021 NFL draft and added him to a terrible team.  So far it is still a work in progress. Trevor will need more of a team built around him in order to see his greatness come alive… That is if he survives getting hit as often as he does.  The Kansas City Chiefs have been a good teams for several seasons… The coach and QB have a Super Bowl win and a Super Bowl loss on their recent resumes.  The dominance started when the Chiefs drafted QB Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 NFL draft… Mahomes was not the first pick… he was the 3rd quarterback taken.  Mahomes got to join a mostly built already winning team.  The Chiefs had their biggest scare this offseason when the lost WR Tyreek Hill, the fastest guy in shoes, to the Miami Dolphins.  It has not seemed to affect them.  The Chiefs don’t win every game, but they win a lot and have a lot of talent.

The Jacksonville Jaguars got their 3rd win of the season against the Las Vegas Raiders in the last game.  The Raiders are only 2-6 on the season so it wasn’t a big win… but still it was a win.  Jaguars 27 - Raiders 20.  The win also covered the spread since the Jaguars were the underdogs AT HOME. The Jaguars numbers are mediocre on offense.  They get a lot of yards because they have a solid running game behind RB Travis Etienne JR and the occasional scramble from QB Trevor Lawrence…. But the passing game is below average.  With the Jaguars struggling in the passing game… the kiss of death becomes that their passing defense is also very soft.  NFL teams need good running games, but without strong passing games to balance it… they won’t get a lot of wins.

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Tennessee Titans in their last game 20-17, but failed to cover the HUGE 14 point point spread.  14 points is an outrageous point spread for any NFL game… still with a QB like Patrick Mahomes bettors can be swayed into thinking that number will get covered.  It usually won’t.  The Chiefs offensive numbers are off the charts!... #1 in scoring, #1 in passing yards… so why the 3 losses?... Simply put, the defense is lousy.  At 6-2 on the season the Chiefs are only 3-5 ATS.  The Chiefs defense even allows bad teams to hang in there… Like the 30-29 win over the Las Vegas Raiders… That is only 1 point over one of the worst teams in the league!  All 3 Chiefs wins ATS were blowouts… But in all 3 the losing team scored 20 or more points.  So the Chiefs only win against the spread the 3 times they have scored more than 40 points this season.  That is bad betting.

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RECENT FORM

JAC: 3-6, 3-6 ATS, 4-5 O/U, 1-3 on the road.

KCC: 6-2, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 O/U, 3-1 in home games.

The Jaguars are 18th in scoring with 22.1 points per game, 5th in total yards with 367.4 per game, 18th in passing yards with 220.7 per game, 7th in rushing yards with 146.8 per game.

The Chiefs are 1st in scoring with 30.4 points per game, 4th in total yards with 415.2 per game, 1st in passing yards with 311.8 per game, 23rd in rushing yards with 103.5 per game.

The Jaguars defense is 16th in defending total yards with 343.4 allowed per game, 22nd in defense of passing yards with 238.3 per game, 7th in defense of rushing yards with 105.1 allowed per game, and 11th in defense of total points with 19.8 allowed per game.

The Chiefs defense is 20th in defending total yards with 3651.5 allowed per game, 24th in defending passing yards with 249.5 allowed per game, 5th in rushing yards allowed with 102 per game, and 20th in defense of points with 23.6 allowed per game

Our prediction for Sunday, November 13th is… Chiefs 35 - Jaguars 22

 

Bet on the Chiefs to cover.  Yes, the Chiefs defense has not been super… AND the spread is 9.5 points while the difference in their scoring averages is just a fraction above 8 points… Mahomes is still going to be throwing against one of the worst pass defenses while the Chiefs defense will have an easier day than last week.

 

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The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in games where the tidal is greater or equal to 49.5 last 3 seasons.

The Chiefs are 20 Over and 39 Under as a favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

The Choiefs are 1-7 ATS after a win by 3 points or less the last 3 seasons.

Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Travis Etienne Jr, WR Zay Jones, WR Marvin Jones JR, WR Christian Kirk, TE Chris Manhertz, LT Cam Robinson, LG Tyler Shatley, C Luke Fortner, RG Brandon Scherff, RT Jawaan Taylor

Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Isaih Pacheco, WR JuJu Smith Schuster, WR Kadarius Toney, TE Noah Gray, TE Travis Kelce, LT Orlando Brown, LG Joe Thuney, C Creed Humprhey, RG Trey Smith, RT Andrew Wylie

Partly Cloudy, humidity 50%, wind 9 mph, 42*.  Cool and humid.  Yuck.