NFL: Houston Texans VS New York Giants and Picks 11/13/2022

 

Game Time:  1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 13th, 2022

Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Where to Watch:  CBS

FanDuel: point spread: Giants -6.5, O/U 40.5

DraftKings:  Giants -6.5, O/U 41

Caesars:  Giants -6.5, O/U 40.5

Texans: 1-6-1, last place AFC South AND the entire league

Giants: 6-2, 3rd place AFC East

An inter-conference battle between a losing team and a winning team.  Sure one of these teams was also a losing team as recently as last season… but things sure do change in the NFL… unless you are Houston.  The Houston Texans have had a lot of bad luck… and terrible management.. And wasted drafts… and wasted seasons… and bad luck… and they stink.  Just a few seasons ago Houston thought they had found a franchise quarterback to lead them to the promised land, but that guy turned out to be a sexual predator hellbent on embarrasing everyone who had ever done business with him or knew him.  So he is gone to another team.  The Texans are left with the same rotten team that the other guy couldn’t find success with… AND a lot of questions.  Going forward they will have to answer these questions:  Do we have an NFL coach?(jury still out)... Do we have an NFL quarterback? (no)... Are any of our players worth keeping? (probably not)... Can we replace any of our players with our draft picks? (a few, but not a lot)... So while the Texans go back to the drawing board… The New York Giants seem to have passed a lot of these same tests.  The Giants have been bad for a while now… well, they have been bad since 2 seasons before Eli Manning retired.  Some coaching changes.. And taking the ball out of QB Daniel Jones’s hands while giving it to RB Saquon Barkley… AND making incremental improvements on offense and defense have rebirthed the Giants as winners.  The Giants are 6-2 and if things hold up… They are also playoff bound!  Wow!  That means someday the Texans could get there.  The one interesting thing about the Giants is that they don’t like their own quarterback… They may end up as the first winning team in a while to offer the quarterback NOTHING and watch him walk.  The Cowboys, Cardinals, Packers, and Broncos… all should have simply watched a QB walk instead of paying him and they all are paying the price for that mistake… Could the Giants learn from that?

The Houston Texans lost their last game to the Philadelphia Eagles 29-17 and in doing so covered an embarrassing 14 point Spread.  It’s the small victories that you sometimes have to hold on to.  The Last time the Texans won a game was against the terrible Jacksonville Jaguars back on October 9th… It was also the first and only time the Texans won this season.  Texans quarterback Davis Mills is just not the guy.  Davis has 1656 passing yards on the season… and while Davis is good for occasionally covering an occasional spread, he is not good for winning.  Davis isn’t all to blame BTW… The Texans have very few weapons and a rotten defense. Over the last two seasons the Texans have traded multiple players of quality for draft picks… The Texans day will come… but it will come without Davis Mills.  The Texans offense finds itself at the bottom rung of most stat columns and the defense is also at the bottom rung of most defensive stat columns.  This team is a team in name only… the key to betting them is to wait for the laughable spread.  (Note, also the team should not draft a quarterback this year even if they have the best pick… they should trade back and pick up multiple guys through multiple rounds to improve multiple units… Then they should draft a QB next season so they have a team to offer him.

The New York Giants are causing a New York commotion…. But only through winning.  The team is not good in the offensive stats where they are low in points, low in yards and low in passing yards… They are only really good at running the ball with Saquon Barkley, 5th in rushing as a team.. Saquon gets 90% of that.  The Giants lost their last game to the surging Seattle Seahawks 27-13.  It was a sore spot on an otherwise wonderful season at the halfway point.  A dreaded thought for the Giants is that they really have beaten mostly bad teams… Jaguars, Packers, Bears, Panthers, Titans… The next two games are against easy teams as well Texans and Lions!  However after that they have Dallas, Washington, Philly, Minnesota… of those 4 only Washington is a scrub…. Oh and after Indy.. They then have to finish the season against Philly again.  The Giants are really good at winning this season, but they are playing the type of schedule teams get if they have been losing for say… 5 years in a row.  If they make the playoffs they will not threaten anyone.

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RECENT FORM

HOU: 1-6-1, 4-3-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U, 1-3 in road games.

NYG: 6-2, 6-2 ATS, 1-6-1, 3-1 in home games.

 

The Texans are 28th in scoring with 16.6 points per game, 30th in total yards with 290.5 per game, 26th in passing yards with 188.6 per game, 25th in rushing yards with 101.9 per game.

The Giants are 22nd in scoring with 20.4 points per game, 28th in total yards with 320.6 yards per game, 29th in passing yards with 159.1 per game, and 5th in rushing yards with 161.5 per game.

The Texans are 30th in defending total yards with 398.1 allowed per game, 19th in defense of passing yards with 217.5 per game, 32nd (last in defense of rushing yards with 180.6 per game allowed, and 19th in defense of points with 22.9 per game allowed.

The Giants are 17th in defense of total yards with 345.6 per game allowed, 16th in defense of passing yards with 208.4 per game allowed, 25th in defense of rushing yards with 137.3 allowed per game, and 9th in defense of total points with 19.6 allowed per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, November 13th is… Giants 28 - Texans 13

 

Bet BIG on the Giants ATS.  The Texans have been good about denying points while losing all season long.  The Texans have covered 4 spreads!  But all 4 of those spreads have been larger than this one with three of them coming against losing teams.  You have to ask your=self just how will the worst run defense in the league contain Saquon Barkley… AND if they key on Saquon… they will only be giving Giants QB Daniel Jones the chance at lots of time in the pocket… exactly what he needs to game manage.

 

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The Texans are 4-3 ATS as an underdog this season.

The Texans are 1-5 ATS in games played on turf the last 3 seasons.

The Giants are 3 Over and 16 Under in home games the last 3 seasons.

The Giants are 6-2 ATS in all games this season.

Texans: QB Davis Mills, RB Dameon Pierce, WR Phillip Dorsett, WR Chris Moore, WR Tyron Johnson, TE OJ Howard, LT Laremy Tunsil, LG Kenyon Green, C Scott Queesenberry, RG AJ Cann, RT Tytus Howard

Giants: QB Daniel Jones, RB Saquon Barkley, FB Chris Myarick, WR Wan’Dale Robininson, WR Marcus Johnson, WR Darius Slayton, LT Andrew Thomas, LG Joshua Ezeundu, C Jon Feliciano, RG Mark Glowinski, RT Tyre Phillips

Scattered Showers.  Humidity 55%, wind 10 mph, 47*. Winter is coming.  Winter will be rough.  Get it now while you can.