NFL: Houston Texans VS Miami Dolphins Prediction and Picks 11/27/2022
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 27th, 2022
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Where to Watch: CBS, Paramount +
Odds at USA Sportsbooks
FanDuel: point spread: Dolphins -12.5; O/U 45.5
BetMGM: Dolphins -12.5; O/U 46
Caesars: Dolphins -13; O/U 46
Texans: 1-8-1, 4th place AFC South… Last place in the league.
Dolphins: 7-3, 1st place AFC East
A big mismatch in the NFL… between the worst and one of the best. Of course that best was one of the worst as recently as last year… Still today is today. The Houston Texans are dirt. They are the lowest of the low. 2 seasons ago they had a dynamic quarterback and an all-star defender that led them to almost mattering. Then something happened… I’m sure you know it. Now that dynamic quarterback is in Cleveland awaiting his debut, from a 2-year absence, with the Browns.. While the Texans have traded away what they could and installed Davis Mills as their starter at QB… all in the hopes of a quick rebuild. We all hope they do better in the pre draft interviews with prospective quarterbacks… Character matters Houston… Character matters. If you have a moneyline bet available to you… Put some money on it… The Texans will lose… However the spread in the game is -12.5 to -13 in favor of the Dolphins… and those types of spreads for an ATS bet is shaky ground to stand on. The Miami Dolphins completed their massive rebuild… People will tell you it was quick because they are comparing it to last year… but the Dolphins were bad for quite some time before that. At the moment they have a tough defense, QB Tua Tagovailoa, and tons of weapons in the skill positions. The Dolphins could end up tanking your bet by simply winning by 10 points… Let’s look at the numbers and see if double digits is the right place for the spread.
The Houston Texans are on a 5-game losing streak… The only team they beat all season was the Jacksonville Jaguars 13-6. Houston boasts the worst offense in the league AND possibly the worst defense in the league except they are in the middle of the rankings on pass defense (14th in the league). This is not because they are good at pass defense… it is because everyone they have played this season (except the Jags and Indianapolis) have had a second half thru finish of the game lead. When you have a big league in football you tend to simply run the ball to let the clock die in front of you… So the Texans are good on pass defense only in that no one feels the need to pass against them for almost half of every game. The Texans injury list has several players listed as Out Indefinitely… Everyone on that list feels no pressure to make it back to the field because the team either wants them healthy NEXT YEAR… or NOT AT ALL. With the lowest number of yards gained per game… and the second highest number of Yards given up per game… They have no formula for winning against anyone.
The Miami Dolphins are exciting! They are on a 4-game winning streak. All three games they lost were during an odd stretch where QB Tua Tagovailoa was hit hard during game action against Cincinnati in the first loss, allowed to keep playing to no effect because he had sustained a concussion… He would miss the next two games and ignite a controversy that got a Doctor fired and will result in rules that yank guys from games for “looking wobbly” or “staggering after a hit”... Those rules will help the health of players but when applied wrong will take some healthy players out of close games. Anyway Tua is back and once again they are a winning machine. The Dolphins were the first team to beat the Buffalo Bills this season back in Week 3. The new weapon this season is the much celebrated WR Tyreek Hill who has 1148 yards in 10 games played (a couple of those without Tua)... The Dolphins gave up a lot to get Tyreek and then gave Tyreek a big chunk of the salary cap… but right now it is working great. The Dolphins defense is not quite at the level of the Dolphins scary offense… which leads the team to big scoring shootouts. Like a 35-32 win over Chicago… a 31-27 win over Detroit… a 42-38 win over Baltimore. Those types of results should not make you super comfortable with a 12 ½ - 13 point point spread.
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Houston Texans VS Miami Dolphins Preview and Analysis
HOU: 1-8-1, 4-5-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U, 1-4 in road games.
MIA: 7-3, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U, 4-1 in home games.
The Texans are 30th in scoring with 15.9 points per game, 32nd in total yards with 285.9 yards per game, 26th in passing yards with 192.2 yards per game, and 29th in rushing yards with 93.7 yards per game.
The Dolphins are 6th in scoring with 25.2 points per game, 3rd in total yards with 391.5 per game, 2nd in passing yards with 293.8 per game, and 27th in rushing yards with 97.7 per game.
The Texans defense is 31st in allowing yards with 389.6 per game, 14th in defense of passing yards with 210.7 per game, 32nd in defense of rushing yards with 178.9 per game, and 18th in defense of points with 23 per game allowed. (The points per game is because teams get out to a nice lead against the Texans and simply milk the clock for most of the 4th quarter.)
The Dolphins defense is 21st in defending total yards, 22nd in defending passing yards with 239.8 per game, 16th in defense of rushing yards with 116.9 per game, and 23rd in defense of points with 24.1 per game allowed. (we all know that this coming draft will be defensive heavy with whatever picks the Dolphins have left after building this amazing offense).
Houston Texans VS Miami Dolphins Prediction
Our prediction for Sunday, November 27th is… Dolphins 27 - Texans 9
The spread is big here… but the Texans are fully cooked. Bet on the Dolphins ATS OR bet on the UNDER. The Texans scored 9-10 points in 3 of their losses while only scoring 13 points in their win. A 46 point O/U is relatively safe as long as 1 team is the Texans!
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NFL Betting Trends
Houston is 15-20 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.
Miami is 9-2 ATS in November Games the last 3 seasons.
Texans: QB Davis Mills, RB Dameon Pierce, WR Nico Collins, WR Brandon Cooks, TE Teagan Quitoreiano, TE Jordan Akins, LT Laremy Tunsil, LG Kenyon Green, C Scott Quesseberry, RG AJ Cann, RT Tytus Howard
Dolphins: QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Raheem Mostert, FB Alec Ingold, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, TE Durham Smythe, LT Terron Armstead, LG Robert Jones, C Connor Williams, RG Robert Hunt, RT Brandon Shell
Partly Cloudy, 83*, Humidity 75%, Wind 9 mph… can you say “drinks on South Beach!” ?