NFL: Green Bay Packers vs Washington Commanders Previews and Picks 10/23/2022

 

Game Time:  1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 23rd, 2022

Venue:  FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland

Where to Watch:  FOX

FanDuel: point spread: Packers -5.5; 41.5 O/U

DraftKings: Packers -5.5; 41.5 O/U

Caesars: Packers -5.5; 41.5 O/U

 

Packers: 3-3, 2nd p[lace NFC North

Commanders: 2-4, last place NFC East

An NFC matchup between two teams that are only separated by 1 win… yet vastly separated when we compare rosters.  On the surface it looks like a classic “get right” game for the Packers… but do the Commanders have anything to offer?  It hasn’t been the best season for either club… but the Packers are coming off another embarrassing 27-10 loss to the New York Jets while the Commanders are coming off a surprising 12-7 win over the Chicago Bears. Could this game be a turnaround game of expectations?  Let’s check the numbers.

The Green Bay Packers have not been having the season they expected when they extended QB Aaron Rodgers for 3 years $50 million a season.  Insiders keep telling me the contract options mean that the extension is actually 3 single year deals for 50 million a piece… meaning it could come to an end whenever.  It may be coming to an end.  The problem in Green Bay is they are not winning.  It has put a spotlight on Head Coach Matt LaFleur… People are asking if maybe he is too much of an Aaron Rodgers “yes man”... and not enough of the “boy genius” he was advertised as?  Aaron lost his best receiver (Devonte Adams) in the offseason and simply does not trust the multiple rookie receivers to target them.  That severely limits the field to just WR Allen Lazard or a tight end.  The Packers bright spot is RB Aaron Jones, but the offense has a tendency to get away front he running game for far too long during each of the 3 losses.  Truth is they are a .500 team with a hall Of Fame quarterback… They can recover, but it will take leadership from SOMEONE!

The Washington Commanders have the worst owner in sports… and they have been bad for a long time.  There is a ton of off-season chatter about will the owner be gone or will he bring down the NFL house of Cards with dirt on the other owners?... It can be distracting.  What’s more distracting of course is that they are bad at most units on the field starting with washed quarterback Carson Wentz… a guy who is on his third team in 3 seasons.  A guy who has much better football memories than his football present. They won the last game but scored so little it was more an indictment of how bad the Chicago Bears are… The Commanders are now 29th in the league in scoring with only 17 points a game.  That is not sustainable for winning football. To make matters worse Carson Wentz is OUT with a finger injury and Taylor Heineke is in.  The team may perform better initially with a fresh face in the huddle… but let’s not forget that he didn;t win the job over Carson to begin with and has the same roster to command.

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RECENT FORM

GBP: 3-3, 2-4 ATS, 2-4 O/U, 1-1 on the road.

WAS: 2-4, 2-4 ATS, 2-4 O/U, 1-2 at home.

 

The Packers came out of Week 6 24th in scoring with 17.8 points per game, 13th in total yards with 348.2 per game, 17th in passing yards with 225.8 per game, and 13th in rushing yards with 122.3 per game.  The offense simply does not score as much as the numbers suggest.  They need to find a way to pound the ball in the red zone! The entire season could be different if LaFleur took ownership of the offense.

The Commanders came out of Week 6 29th in scoring with 17 points per game, 23rd in total yards with 320.3 per game, 18th in passing yards with 224.8 per game, and 24th in rushing yards with 95.5 per game.  This offense suggests the Chicago win may be the last win of the season.

The Packers defense is carrying the team at the moment.  They are 5th in defense of total yards with 299.2 allowed per game, 1st in defense of passing yards with 164 per game, 27th in defense of rushing yards with 135.2 yards per game, and 15th in defense of points with 20.5 per game allowed.  Shore up the rushing defense and this is a winning team despite the offensive struggles.

The Commanders defense is slightly below average, not a good sign for a poor offensive output.  They are 19th in defense of total yards with 353.3 per game, 15th in defense of passing yards with 221.5 per game, 25th in defense of rushing yards with 131.8 per game, and 18th in defense of points with 22.5 per game allowed.

Our prediction for Sunday, October 23rd is… Packers 27 - Commanders 10

Vegas did you a big favor!  This is clearly a “get right: game for the better Packers.  With the point spread at 5.5… They are giving you a win… get it soon before the line moves.  Yes the Packers have not been great… but they can beat the Commanders and they can cover a touchdown at least!  Take the money and ignore the chatter. Separately I would also bet the UNDER.

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Green Bay is 25-17 ATS in all games the last 3 seasons.

Washington is 2 Over and 10 Under as a home underdog of less than 7 points the last 3 seasons.

Packers: WR Randall Cobb Out ** LB T Galeai Out ** T C Jones Out **

Commanders: QB Carosn Wentz finger Out ** WR J Dotson Out ** 

 

Packers: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Aaron Jones, WR AJ Dillon, WR Allen Lazard, WR Romeo Doubs, TE Marcedes Lewis, LT David Bakhtiari, LG Jon Runyon, C Josh Myers, RG Royce Newman, RT Elgton Jenkins

Commanders: QB Taylor Heineke, RB Brian Robinson JR, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Terry McLaurin, TE Armani Rogers, TE Cole Turner, LT Charles Leno Jr, LG Andrew Norwell, C Tyler Larsen, RG Saahdiq Charles, RT Cornelius Lucas

 

 

Partly Cloudy, 69*, Humidity 64%, wind 6 mph.  Fall is here in a big way.  Let’s get domes people!