NFL: Green Bay Packers Vs Detroit Lions and Picks 11/06/2022

 

Game Time:  1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 6th, 2022

Venue: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

Where to Watch:  FOX

FanDuel: point spread: Packers -3.5; O/U 49.5

DraftKings: Packers -3.5; O/U 50

Caesars: Packers -3.5; O/U 49.5

Packers: 3-5, 2nd place NFC North

Lions: 1-6, last place NFC North

An NFC matchup.  Bettors and fans see this week as a relief for QB Aaron Rodgers and his struggling Packers… but why?... Just because the Lions are and have been terrible forever?... Maybe, but they are not awful on offense… and on defense the Lions won’t have to work too hard considering the Packers only have one or two guys in uniform that Aaron Rodgers trusts to give the ball to.  In reverse of course the Packers are good on defense… They usually are.  So where does the chain break?  Where is the hole in the numbers that will truly tell us where to put or money?... What is the great betting opportunity?

The Green bay Packers did nothing at the trade deadline.  This was a giant mistake for a roster that has no receivers (healthy receivers) to the liking of their $50 million dollar quarterback.  WR Randall Cobb was the only addition the Packers made over the offseason to appease Aaron and he doesn’t play because of a high ankle sprain… he also wasn’t so great when he did play.  WR Allen Lazard will be listed as Questionable for this one with a shoulder injury… That is the only guy that Aaron has learned to enjoy.  WR Christian Watson is out with a concussion but will also be listed as Questionable… Is that even a guy that Aaron cares to throw the ball at?.  It’s all so hopeless.  However it isn’t hopeless.  Aaron and hopefully the team has discovered that RB Aaron Jones is great in the ground game and can also work as Aaron’s release valve in the passing game.  To make matters worse Aaron Rodgers has a thumb injury.  Rodgers is listed as Probable… because he will play, but will the thumb limit him in any way?  What we do know about the Packers is they are on a 4-game losing streak.  They have looked terrible, undisciplined, off balance, and downright soft.  The one bright spot of the 4-game losing streak was that they covered a 10.5 point spread against the Buffalo Bills by 0.5 points… while losing 27-17.  They are 3-5 on the season AND 3-5 ATS on the season. They have been an unsafe bet.

The Detroit Lions take lumps every week.  They will be taking such lumps until they figure out how to build a defense. Of course by then they will be wondering if they should keep QB Jared Goff?  Why wouldn’t they… the guy has 1904 passing yards after 7 games.  Goff can throw the rock… but the Lions as a whole never win. A sad state for a team that is 10th in scoring, 7th in passing, and 10th in rushing.  That is a lot of offense for a team that has only won 1 game out of 7…. The reason for all the losses is they have no defense to speak of.  DE Aidan Hutchinson can get the occasional sack, but he is surrounded by a DIM unit that gives up the most total yards and the most total points of any team in the league.  The recipe for losing is literally to start with the Detroit defense and bake for any amount of time you want.  Wholesale change of the defense would require giving up picks or offensive starters… which puts you back to exactly where you were at the start of next season.  OT Penei Sewell is listed as Questionable because he is tending to a personal matter… We will never know if he was the better answer for the Cincinnati Bengals instead of Ja’Marr Chase… because he plays for the Lions… so essentially we know nothing about him or his ceiling after 1 ½ years of play.  24 Lions are listed as either Out or Questionable or Probable… meaning this entire team is dinged up… all judgements from this season could ultimately become meaningless if they ever catch a break with health.  For this season any such break will be too little or too late.

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RECENT FORM

GBP: 3-5, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U, 1-3 in road games.

DET: 1-6, 3-4 ATS, 5-2 O/U, 1-3 in home games.

 

The Packers are 26th in scoring with 18.1 points, 14th in total yards with 339.9 yards per game, 22nd in passing yards with 217.4 per game, and 15th in rushing yards with 122.5 per game.  The best hope for the Packers is to run, run, run the ball.  

The Detroit Lions are 10th in scoring with 24.7 points per game, 13th in total yards with 394.9 yards per game, 7th in passing yards with 258.3 per game, and 10th in rushing yards with 136.6 per game.  The Lions can win this if they score early and force Rodgers into the passing game.

The Packers defense is 8th in defense of total yards with 316 allowed per game, 2nd in defense of passing yards with 174.8 per game allowed, 29th in defense of rushing with 141.3 yards allowed per game, and 16th in defense of total points with 21.6 allowed per game.

The Lions are 32nd in defense of total yards with 421.3 per game allowed, 27th in defense of passing yards with 266.4 per game, 30th in defense of rushing yards with 154.9 per game allowed, and 32nd in defense of points with 32.1 points per game allowed.

Our prediction for Sunday, November 6th is… Lions 31 - Packers 27

 

Bet on the Lions.  Get 3.5 points to keep in your pocket.  I know you are supposed to doubt everything about the Lions, but the truth of sports is that there are professional level players on both teams.  The Lions defense has guys with nothing to lose since most of them are auditioning for their next job.  The Packers on the other hand fall into “A tiger can’t change its stripes”... I think any dropped balls or missed routes will cause Aaron Rodgers to do what he has done all season… He will shut down, roll his eyes, and start handing out blame.  The Lions score too many points per game to finish with only 1 win on the season… so why not beat a team that is already beating itself?

 

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The Packers are 1-4 ATS as a favorite this season.

The Lions are 3-2 ATS against conference opponents this season.

Detroit is 2-0 ATS at Green Bay the last 3 seasons.

Packers: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Aaron Jones, WR Christian Watson, WR Sammy Watkins, WR Romeo Doubs, TE Marcedes Lewis, LT David Bakhtiari, LG Zach Tom, C Josh Myers, RG Jon Runyan, RT Yosh Nijman

Lions: QB Jared Goff, RB Jamaal Williams, WR Josh Reynolds, WR Kalif Raymond, WR Amon St. Brown, TE TJ Hockenson, LT Taylor Decker, LG Jonah Jackson, C Frank Ragnow, RG Evan Brown, RT Penei Sewell

Sunny. 65*, Humidity 56%, Wind 14 mph, Precipitation chance just 10%.