NFL: Green Bay Packers vs Buffalo Bills and Picks 10/30/2022

 

Game Time:  8:25 PM ET, Sunday, October 30th, 2022

Venue:  Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, New York

Where to Watch:  NBC

FanDuel: point spread: Bills -10.5; O/U 47.5

DraftKings: Bills -11; O/U 47.5

Caesars: Bills -11.5; O/U 47.5

Packers: 3-4, 2nd in the NFC North

Bills: 5-1 1st in the AFC East

The Sunday Night Game of the Week on NBC is usually a hotly contested matchup between the toughest teams… the hardest battling competitors… the roughest hombres around.  All bleary eyes still open on the East coast, tune it to see the great show.  A pop-star sings us into the broadcast and the action is usually tense.  Not this week.  This week we get a matchup chosen over the summer before the Green Bay Packers had started their implosion.  The Buffalo Bills are not only the same Bills… They might be a better version of last season’s Super Bowl contenders. Bills QB Josh Allen could win the mayoral vote of Buffalo by simply suggesting to write his name in… He is the source of many modern Paul Bunyon tales.  He is a great quarterback with a great team to match.  Meanwhile QB Aaron Rogers is a drug-addled hippy waiting for his next paycheck and turning his nose up at the young players on his own squad. Aaron has performed better on podcasts in the last 6 months than on the football field.  Aaron makes $50 million dollars a season and doesn’t want to put in the work to properly sync up with the rookie wide receivers on his roster that are making 1/50th of that if they are lucky.  He does however want to criticize them.  Any adult in the world knows nothing causes a young person to nervously screw up more than direct public criticism… except the Packers QB apparently.  This is a mismatch.  It is the largest point spread against Rogers in Rogers' entire Packer career…. And THEY WILL NOT COVER.

The Green Bay Packers stubbed their toe for a generation by drafting QB Jordan Love (and giving up picks to do it) instead of nabbing weapons for their prickly quarterback.  Several seasons later that young QB simply does not play… and their prickly quarterback is angry about the whole situation.  If given the chance I would write Aaron Rogers Hall of Fame induction speech for him:  “me, me, me… some more of me… I am good… blah blah… ME”.  The sad part is he is a great quarterback.  He really doesn’t have many weapons… and the team that has been stringent about having a good defense… has a defense that is overworked.  The Packers have lost 3-games in a row.  A real 3 games in a row because they should have been wins… They lost to the Redskins, the Jets, and the Giants… 3 teams who have been jokes over the last 5 seasons. In their loss to the Washington Commanders… Commanders QB Tyler Heineke embarrassed Aaron Rogers by doing more with a worse roster.  The Packers are not a safe bet as they sit 2-5 ATS on the season.

The Buffalo Bills are a party!  From the action in the parking lot that looks like drunken professional wrestling to the obnoxiously loud (but lovable) cheering for a team that broke this city’s heart in multiple Super Bowl losses. This season they are 5-1… their lone loss was to the Miami Dolphins at the height of Tua’s rebirth…. And it was very close (21-19).  QB Josh Allen is #1 in passing yards… and he is backed by a great defense.  That is a winning combination any season.  They are 2nd in the league in scoring with a big 29.3 points per game… They will exceed that in this game against the Packers.  The key addition to what was already a great team was DE Von Miller… with opposing teams being forced into passing situations just to keep pace… Von has been all over opposing quarterbacks. (6 sacks).  The Bills one weakness on offense is in the rushing game… so QB Josh Allen lends a hand there also by rushing for 257 yards over 6 games.

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RECENT FORM

GBP: 3-4, 2-5 ATS, 3-4 O/U, 1-2 in road games.

BUF: 5-1, 4-1-1 ATS, 1-5 O/U, 2-0 at home.

The Packers are 23rd in the league in scoring with 18.3 points per game, 18th in total yards with 331.6 per game, 17th in passing yards with 221.3 per game, and 8th in rushing yards with 110.3 per game.

The Bills are 2nd in scoring with 29.3 points per game, 4th in total yards with 440.8 per game, 1st in passing yards with 323 per game, and 16th in rushing yards with 117.8 per game.  The rushing yards are not as good as 16th since Josh Allen has half of those yards with QB scrambles.

The Packers defense is 8th in defense of total yards with 308.4 yards per game allowed, 1st in defense of passing yards with 168.9 yards per game, 27th in defense of rushing yards with 139.6 yards per game, and 14th in defense with 20.9 points per game given up.  The passing yards defense stat is fugazzi as the last 3 games were against the Giants, the Jets, and the Commanders…, all teams that have to find ways to win while getting around their soft passing games.

The Bills defense is 1st in defense of total yards with only 281.5 yards allowed per game, 11th in defense of passing yards with 205.3 per game given up, 1st in defense of rushing yards with 76.2 allowed per game, and 1st in defense of points scored with 13.5 allowed per game.  The seemingly weak spot of 11th in passing defense is actually a strength.  The Bills force the other team to pass from behind all game long… the only yards they are occasionally getting are  passing yards.

Our prediction for Sunday, October 30th is… Bills 35 - Packers 17

 

Yes, the bet is for the Bills… AND… the BILLS will cover the spread.  The Packers are in the midst of a full meltdown and QB Aaron Rogers has lost half the team with the other half coming soon to the dark side.

 

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The Packers are 5-1 ATS off a road loss the last 3 seasons.

The Bills are 6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more the last 3 seasons.

The Bills are 10-3 ATS in home games where the total is 42.5 to 49 the last 3 seasons.

The Bills are 8-1 ATS in non-conference games the last 3 seasons.

Packers: QB Aaron Rogers, RB Aaron Jones, WR Allen Lazard, WR Samori Toure, WR Romeo Doubs, TE Marcedes Lewis, LT Zach Tom, LG Elgton Jenkins, C Josh Myers, RG Jon Runyon, RT Yosh Nijman

Bills: QB Josh Allen, RB Devin Singeltazry, FB Reggie Gilliam, WR Gabe Davis, WR Stefon Diggs, TE Dawson Knox, LT Dion Dawkins, LG Rodger Saffold, C Micth Morse, RG Ryan Bates, RT Spencer Brown

Mostly Cloudy, 61* for the high, wind 7 mph.