NFL Football: Washington Commanders VS San Francisco 49ers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 12/24/2022

 

Game Time: 4:00 PM ET,  Saturday, December 24th, 2022

Venue:  Levis Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Where to Watch:  CBS, Paramount +

FanDuel:  49ers -7.5, O/U 39.5

BetMGM:  49ers -7, O/U 39.5

PointsBet:  49ers -7, O/U 39.5

Commanders: 7-6, 4th place NFC East

49ers: 10-4, 1st place NFC West

An NFC battle of East VS West… One team is destined to regroup in the offseason.. The other is destined to make noise in the postseason.  Where do we put our money with a full TD worth of a spread?  In the NFC the cream has risen… They are the Eagles, the Cowboys, the Vikings, and the 49ers.  All four teams are double digit winners.. The rest of the NFC is fighting tooth and nail to lineup behind these teams for an outside chance.  The Washington Commanders may have missed their outside chance when they lost to their NFC East rival New York Giants last game.  Were there blown calls?... yes.. But still a loss is a loss.  This matchup has the potential to give the Commanders the only non-winning record in the NFC East.  The San Francisco 49ers have been on a long winning streak that has spanned multiple quarterbacks.  The current quarterback is a super young guy who was taken last in the draft… not in the last round… but literally LAST. So while we fully do not recognize the quarterbacks for either team (neither has enough games played to measure reliable stats)... The 49ers definitely have the better supporting cast.  Let’s look at the numbers and decide if the spread is worth it.

The Washington Commanders snapped a 4 game “not losing” streak last week with a loss against the New York Giants… they had previously tied the Giants in the game before this.  It was also a loss against a -4.5 spread that favored the Commanders at home.  So, they played the Giants two times in a row and went 0-1-1 with 2 losses ATS.  Fun.  In the loss QB Taylor Heinicke completed only 17 of 29 passes for 249 yards and 1 TD.  That would be the only offensive TD of the day.  The end of the game was riddled with awkwardly bad calls by the refs.  It looked as if the Commanders had a chance to drive down for a score but the refs swallowed their whistles on pass interference multiple times.  The Commanders were only in the game because they have a strong defense… but still the offense got hosed on those “non-calls”.

The San Francisco 49ers are on a 7-game winning streak.  They have not lost a game since a Kansas City Chiefs matchup that took place before Halloween.  Their last win was over the Seattle Seahawks 21-13.. It was also a win ATS.  The 49ers are also on a 5-game win ATS streak.  For the season the 49ers are 9-5 ATS.  When they win they tend to cover.  The spread against the 49ers was unnaturally low because of QB Brock Purdy… a young guy who has played in 3 games since QB Jimmy G was knocked out for the season with an injury that may kill his entire career. All three of those games have been wins.  The 49ers defense is the best in the league… and Brock may be young, but he certainly is advantaged by having weapons everywhere on the field.  

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WAS: 7-6-1, 7-6-1 ATS, O/U 4-9-1, 4-2-1 in road games.

SFO: 10-4, 9-5 ATS, O/U 6-8, 6-1 in home games.

The Commanders are 25th in scoring with 18.9 points per game, 20th in total yards with 335.5 per game, 21st in passing yards with 208.6 per game, and 11th in rushing yards with 126.9 per game. (these stats were compiled by a mix of 50% Carson Wentz and 50% Taylor Heinicke)

The 49ers are 10th in scoring with 24.1 points per game, 7th in total yards with 362.9 per game, 14th in passing yards with 229.4 per game, and 9th in rushing yards with 133.4 per game.  (these stats were combined by starts from 3 QBs.. Lance, Garoppolo, and Purdy)

The Commanders defense is 4th in defense of total yards with 308.9 per game allowed, 8th in defense of passing yards with 197.2 per game allowed, 12th in defense of rushing yards with 111.6 per game allowed, and 9th in defense of points scored with 19.7 per game allowed.

The 49ers defense is 1st in defense of total yards with 286.1 per game allowed, 14th in defense of passing yards with 211.4 per game allowed, 1st in defense of rushing yards with 74.7 per game allowed, and 1st in total points scored with 15 per game allowed.

Our prediction for Saturday, December 24th is… 49ers 27 - Commanders 17

 

Bet on the 49ers.  Don’t worry about the 7 points… The Redskins rarely play a team with a defense as good as their own… That advantage is why the Commander have won half of their games with a bad offense  Yet this time they are playing a good 49ers offensive team with a better defense! It will show right away and it will show all day as the Commanders offense will be unable to put up points.

 

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The Commanders are 1 OVER and 6 UNDER in games where the total is 35.5 to 42.

The 49ers are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.

The 49ers are 8-2 ATS versus conference opponents this season.

Commanders: QB Taylor Heinicke, RB Brian Robinson, WR Jahan Dotson, WR Terry McLaurin, TE Logan Thomas, TE John Bates, LT Charles Leno JR, LG Andrew Norwell, C Wes Schweitzer, RG Trai Turner, RT Cornelius Lucas

49ers: QB Brock Purdy, RB Christian McCaffrey, FB Kyle Juszczyk, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Jauan Jennings, TE George Kittle, LT Trent Williams, LG Aaron Banks, C Jake Brendel, RG Spencer Buford, RT Mike McGlinchey

Partly Cloudy, 67*, Humidity 75%, wind 6 mph.