NFL Football: Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/02/2022

by James Q

Tuesday, Sep 27, 2022

NFL Football:  Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/02/2022

Game Time: 1:00 PM ET,  Sunday, October 2nd, 2022
Venue:  AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Where to Watch: FOX

Opening NFL Odds at USA Sportsbooks

FanDuel:  Dallas -3.5, Washington +3.5; O/U 42.5
BetMGM: Dallas -3.5, Washington +3.5; O/U 42.5

Season Record

Commanders: 1-2, last place NFC East
Cowboys: 2-1, 2nd place NFC East (tied)

One of the oldest and most cherished National Football League rivalries.  For decades this rivalry happened under different names that capitalized on Western movies.  This matchup was huge.  The last decade or so this decade has been a fizzle fest.  Washington has a bad owner and can’t seem to build a winning team.  The Cowboys have an impulsive owner and can’t seem to relinquish control to an actual General Manager (or a Hall of Fame coach) and as a result have not won anything of substance since the mid-90’s.  This will be a highly bet game… That is the nature of the beast when it comes to rivalries.  I know a pair of gamblers that have a 40 year bet that automatically kicks in whenever these teams play… The bet is for $1000 dollars and the Cowboys bettor is up pretty large after 40 seasons.  (They should increase it for inflation, but both guys are probably preoccupied by casket brochures).  

The Washington Commanders are 1-2 after 3 games. They have not been a safe bet ATS as that is also 1-2.  They are underdogs in most any game they walk into.  Walking is part of the problem… especially on pass coverage.  QB Carson Wnetz is intensely searching for a rebirth.  He has not especially found it yet… but he is a very capable quarterback with 861 passing yards on the season.  It would be interesting to see how he would do with a capable defense… or with a better offensive line.  These guys lost HARD to the Philadelphia Eagles 24-8.  A score like that really emphasizes how bad the defense may be… and how sputtering the offense may be.  After just 3 games no team’s stats are permanent. A couple good games radically changes them… but they have dug a 2 loss hole that Carson will need to dig this team out of.

The Dallas Cowboys are the toast of the town… specifically because their 40+ million dollar a year quarterback is out… and their below 1 million dollar a year quarterback is in.  The Dak Prescott contract should be a warning sign to every owner.  Cowboys owner Jerry Jones dragged his feet for 18 months because he didn;t want to give it… he marshaled the forces of former cowboys to BEG Dak to take something in the 20 million range to preserve Cowboy cap space… and then he caved and gave the BIG MONEY anyway.  Dak has played 3 losing quarters of football under the new money… The same money that lost them Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory, and who knows who else off the FA market?  The warning is simple: If you do not want to give the BIG contract, DON’T.  Get a cheaper guy and spend the money on all the other positions.  This formula will not work with every quarterback… You would sign Mahomes, Rogers, and the disrespected kid in Baltimore… but your own average quarterback? Never. The Cowboys won Monday Night Football against the New York Giants 23-16.  It was a long hard slog, but eventually the Cowboys seemed to pull away.  The biggest question in Dallas remains… Is CeeDee Lamb a #1 wide receiver.  The man dropped a wide open 35 yard, possible touchdown pass early, but came back later for a one-handed circus touchdown catch.  So is he the guy that will keep slapping his chest while smiling at awfulness… or will he be the guy who is essentially the best receiver in the league someday?
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Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

WAS: 1-2. 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U, 0-1 on the road.
DAL: 2-1, 2-1 ATS, 0-2-1 O/U, 1-1 at home.

Offensive Analysis

The Commanders have come out of Week 3: 12th in points scored with 21 per game, 19th in total yards with 342, 9th in Passing yards with 255.3 yards per game, and 24th in rushing yards with 86.7 per game.  The Commanders really need to open up the running game… Carson Wentz is passing the heck out of the ball, but the winning throw is not there.  This team can get behind this quarterback and support him enough to get him open looks when he does pass… If they can’t… More of the same.

The Cowboys have come out of Week 3: 30th in scoring with 15.3 points per game, 23rd in total yards with 324 per game, 24th in passing yards with 206 per game, and 11th in rushing yards with 118 per game.  This team needs to overcome Dak’s terrible Week1 numbers… and they desperately need CeeDee Lamb to not drop easy touchdown passes.  They also need to heavily rely on that defense that has allowed the team that is 30th in scoring to be 2-1 with a backup quarterback!

Defensive Analysis

The Commanders came out of Week 3: 27th in allowing total yards with 402 per game, 28th in allowing passing yards with 274 per game, 21st in allowing rushing yards with 128.7 per game, and 28th in allowing points scored with 27.3 per game…. Since they have played Jacksonville, Detroit, and Philadelphia so far… These are really really bad defensive numbers.

The Cowboys came out of Week 3: 9th in total yards allowed with 312 per game, 4th in passing yards allowed with 176.3, 23rd in rushing yards allowed with 136 per game, and 8th in points allowed with 17.3 points per game.  They are pretty good on defense.  The pass rush is insane and they lost a few guys.  LB Micah Parsons is a legit future Hall of Famer given health.

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction

Our prediction for Sunday, October 2nd is…. Cowboys 35 - Commanders 13
The Cowboys will roll this Washington team.  It is soooo obvious that I recommend betting 2 UNITS.  The reason is of course the Commanders defense is bad… while the Cowboys defense is really pretty good.
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NFL Betting Trends


Key Injuries

Commanders: The Commanders have listed 5 players as Questionhabe yet they will all play.  

Cowboys: QB Dak Prescott OUT ** 


Players to Watch

Commanders:  QB Carson Wentz.  This kid was the future Aaron Rogers… and then his health caused his career to fall apart.  He is on his 3rd NFL team… and his mind is still capable of maybe the things that his body has to catch up to.

Cowboys:  QB Cooper Rush, this kid is simply 3-0 in his first 3 NFL starts as the Cowboys backup quarterback.  This season Dak Prescott is 0-1 as a starter and Cooper Rush is 2-0 as a starter.  If he can keep this going?... What will happen in Dallas?

Starting Lineups

Commanders: QB Carson Wentz, RB Antonio Gibson., WR Jahan Dotson, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Terry McLaurin, TE Logan Thomas, LT Charles Leno Jr, LG Andrew Norwell, C Wes Schweitzer, RG Trai Turner, RT Sam Cosmi

Cowboys: QB Cooper Rush, RB Ezekiel Elliot, WR Noah Brown, WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Dalton Schultz, TE Jake Ferguson, LT Tyler Smith, LG Matt Farniok, C Tyler Biadasz, RG Zack Martin, RT Terence Steele


Weather Forecast

Sunny, Sunny, Sunny…. 87* 87* 87*... That is how Dallas works in October.  Thankfully Jerry’s World has a roof and big fans.  The Fans are mostly for the dancing girls that make mother’s uncomfortable… and father’s of young girls.. But this is Dallas so get on that raised stage lady!

James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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