NFL Football: Tampa Bay Buccaneers VS San Francisco 49ers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 12/11/2022

 

Game Time: 4:25 PM ET,  Sunday, December 11th, 2022

Venue:  Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Where to Watch: CBS, Paramount +

FanDuel:  49ers -3.5, 37.5 O/U

BetMGM:  49ers -3.5, 37.5 O/U

PointsBet:   49ers -3.5, 37 O/U

Bucs: 6-6, 1st place NFC South

49ers: 8-4, 1st place NFC West

An NFC battle of lots and lots of question marks.  You can feel how nervous Vegas is about this matchup… the spread is 49ers -3.5… The 49ers are at home… The 49ers have the best defense… The 49ers have the better record.  So why all the question marks?... Because the world’s greatest quarterback Tom Brady, after re-writing every record book in existence… after 2+ decades of football… after a rough start to the season… just pulled off another magical late game 2-touchdown 4th quarter comeback.  And Tom Brady is rolling into a game against the 49ers… the same team he worshiped as a kid… the same team he has wanted to play for but felt a chip on his shoulder when they passed on him 6 times during his draft 20+ seasons ago.. The same team that will draw his parents as fans because they live so close… That guy is coming into Santa Clara to play against a 49ers team that just lost their second starting quarterback of the season.  After all of that?!!… the spread hangs at 3.5 with the 49ers as the home favorites.  This is magical stuff we are dealing with.  The 49ers will be putting QB Brock Purdy on the field as a last resort for a team that has Super Bowl winning talent everywhere else.   Brock played great in relief of Garoppolo in an easy win against the Miami Dolphins, who are a really good AFC team.  Brock could be the next big thing if he holds his numbers from that game and avoids interceptions. The 49ers have more weapons than anyone else… The 49ers have a better defense than anyone else… But can Brock drive the Ferrari when there is a Rolls Royce on the other side?... The great betting opportunity is of course on you know who… but can the 49ers overcome that magical feeling?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are silent killers.  We thought they were done… they were not. They won their last game against the New Orleans Saints.. Which was actually a loss ATS.  But it was also a magical night where the Bucs came back from 2 scores down with 5 minutes left to play… Of course they got help from the bone-headed coaching decisions of Dennis Allen… who pulled a play out of the Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl playbook and threw the ball when they only needed one yard and then would have time for another play.  The Bucs stopped that throw and marched two scores in a few minutes into a win.  In that game QB Tom Brady completed 36 of 54 passes for 281 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT… all of those yards felt like they came in the last 5 minutes of game time.  You can not beat Tom Brady late in any game if you don’t make smart decisions to get first downs and run out the clock.  Any misstep and he will kill you late.

The San Francisco 49ers are on a 2-game winning streak… but that winning streak led to a loss of starting QB Jimmy Garapolo.. This essentially means the end of Jimmy G’s career if he can not make it back for playoff games. It also means the start of QB Brock Purdy’s NFL Career… oh sure the kid was a third string quarterback when the season opened, but now he gets to run a team with a ton of weapons and a GREAT defense.  Brock Purdy the world is your oyster..I hope you prepared?... The 49ers beat the Miami Dolphins 33-17 AFTER losing Jimmy G… Brock completed 25 of 37 passes for 2 TDs and 1 INT… The 49ers defense stuffed the Dolphins QB Tua Tagliova and their high flying offense. Will that keep happening?

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TB: 6-6, 3-8-1 ATS, 2-10 O/U, 2-3 on the road.

SF: 8-4, 7-5 O/U, 5-7 O/U, 5-1 at home.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 27th in scoring with 18.1 points per game, 21st in total yards with 340 per game, 5th in passing yards with 266.8 per game, and 32nd in rushing yards with 73.2 per game.

The San Francisco 49ers are 13th in points scored with 23.5 per game, 13th in total yards with 357.9 per game, and 14th in rushing yards with 124.1 per game.

The Bucs defense is 8th in defense of total yards with 313.8 yards per game allowed, 7th in passing defense with 195.3 allowed per game, 18th in rushing yards with 118.4 per game, and 5th in defense of points scored with 18.3 per game.

The 49ers defense is awesome.  They are 1st in defense of total yards with 283.89 per game allowed, 12th in passing yards defense with 208.3 per game allowed, 1st in rushing yards defense with 75.6 allowed per game, and 1st in point defense with 15.8 points per game allowed.

Our prediction for Sunday, December 11th is…. 49ers 35 - Bucs 14

 

The 49ers will benefit from the better defense and especially from sacking Tom Brady.  Tom Brady spent his magic last week and will take an obvious one on the chin this week.  Why don’t I care about Brock Purdy being a Bambi on unsure legs?... because of Debbo, Travis, and Christian.  The 49ers can take the ball out of Brock’s hands until they open passing lanes for Brock to dink and dunk.  Bet on the 49ers.

 

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The Bucs are 2 Over and 10 Under in all games this season.

The 49ers are 10-2 ATS off a non-conference game the last 3 seasons.

Bucs: QB Tom Brady, RB Rachaad White, WR Julio Jones, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin, TE Cade Otton, LT Donovan Smith, LG Nick Leverett, C Robert Haisley, RG Shaq Mason, RT Josh Wells

49ers: QB Brock Purdy, RB Chrisiain McCaffrey, FB Kyle Juszcyk, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, LT Trent Williams, LG Aaron Banks, C Jake Brendel, RG Daniel Bruskill, RT Mike McGlinchey

Showers, 53*, Humidity 73%, Wind 10 mph.  Rainy Sunday though not too cold.