NFL Football: Tampa Bay Buccaneers VS Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Odds and Preview - 01/08/2023

 

Game Time: 1:00 PM ET,  Sunday, January 8th, 2023

Venue:  Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

Where to Watch:  FOX

FanDuel:  Falcons -4, O/U 40.5

BetMGM:  Falcons -4, O/U 40.5

PointsBet:  Falcons -4, O/U 40.5

Bucs: 8-8 1st place NFC South

Falcons: 6-10, 4th place NFC South

An NFC battle to finish the season with a very odd point spread.  The Falcons are favored because they are at home.  The Bucs are underdogs because…. Because?... Because everyone thinks they are washed and Tom Brady is leaving and they are on the road? This season has been odd in the NFC South… this particular division is junk.  It is really bad and stuffed with really bad teams.  The Tampa Bay Bucs still have a chance at a postseason placement.  All they need is a win and some help… and then they have the greatest QB to ever put on a helmut.  Seriously… most Super Bowls… most Super Bowl wins.  Most yards and Tds and whatever you might count.  All those records came with time played… but the Super Bowl records came with greatness over time played.  The Falcons are garbage in a dumpster fire of a division.  They recently snapped a 4-game losing streak by beating Arizona… huh?  They are awful.  At the moment their QB is Desmond Ridder.  The great betting opportunity here is to remember there are certain names you just do not bet against.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on a 2-game winning streak.  They recently beat the Carolina Panthers in yet another comeback win for QB Tom Brady.  The reason Tampa Bay is not favored in this game, is that they are a pitiful 4-11-1 ATS.  They do not cover spreads and Vegas wants to get the action moving.  In their last win QB Tom Brady completed 34 passes for 432 passing yards, 3 TDs and ZERO INTs.  The running game gave them next to nothing with RB Leonard Fournette gaining only 28 yards on 10 carries.  The banged up, nicked up, down and out Tampa Bay defense allowed the Carolina Panthers to score 24 points on them… still a win is a win.

The Atlanta Falcons won their last game to give them 2 wins since October ended.  They stink from here and I’m thousands of miles away.  In their last game the Falcons beat the Arizona Cardinals 20-19 for a big loss ATS despite a win.  In that game QB Desmond Ridder completed 19 passes for 169 yards 0 TD and 0 INT.  Ridder also lost a fumble.  The Falcons running game was weak overall but did score 2 Tds.

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TBB: 8-8. 4-11-1 ATS, 5-11 O/U, 3-4 in road games.

ATL: 6-10, 8-8 ATS, 6-10 O/U, 5-3 in home games.

The Bucs are 24th in scoring with 18.5 points per game, 11th in total yards with 354.5 per game, 2nd in passing yards with 278.1 per game, 32nd in rushing yards (last) with 76.4 per game.

The Falcons are 19th in scoring with 20.9 points per game, 25th in total yards with 314.7 per game, 31st in passing yards with 155.7 per game, and 3rd in rushing yards with 159 per game.

The Bucs defense is 7th in defending total yards with 320.7 allowed per game, 8th in defending passing yards with 203.3 per game allowed, 15th in defending rushing yards with 117.5 per game allowed, and 8th in points scored with 20.5 per game allowed

The Falcons are 29th in defending total yards with 370.9 per game allowed, 26th in passing yards with 237.9 per game allowed, 24th in rushing yards with 133 per game allowed, and 23rd in points with 23.1 per game allowed.

Our prediction for Sunday, January 8th is…  Bucs 35 - Falcons 13

 

Bet on the Bucs.  This is a two-unit bet.  It is an insane spread when you consider the Falcons defense is SOO bad and the Bucs defense is Very Good.  This isn’t even a contest?  Bet on the Bucs… double your normal output.  Skip betting other games to pile on this bet.  Do it before the line has a chance to move.  I don't even care if Tom Brady plays or not?  (he will)... It is just a magically bad line.

 

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The Bucs are 15-9 ATS versus the Falcons since 1992.

The Bucs are 1-5 ATS in games where the total is 35.5 to 42 this season.

The Falcons are 2-9 ATS as a home favorite the last 3 seasons.

Bucs: QB Tom Brady, RB Rachaad White, WR Julio Jones, WR Mike Evans, TE Ko Kieft, TE Cade Otton, LT Donovan Smith, LG Nick Leverett, C Robert Hainsey, RG Shaq Mason, RT Tristan Wirfs

Steelers: QB Desmond Ridder, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, FB Keith Smith, WR Drake London, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Parker Hesse, LT Jake Matthews, LG Matt Hennessy, C Drew Dalman, RG Chris Lindstrom, RT Kaleb McGary

Scattered Showers, humidity 70%, wind 7 mph.  58* Thankfully the MB Stadium has a roof!  That way we can see actual football.